Blues/Sharks, Justin Abdelkader, Gustav Nyquist, Jaroslav Halak, Thomas Greiss

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The shot totals might have been somewhat close, and the game wasn't a huge blowout, but this contest never really seemed in doubt. San Jose took Game 3 by a 3-0 score to take the series lead 2-1, dominating for about 80-percent of the game. 

A fast-paced first period was capped by Tomas Hertl giving the Sharks a 1-0 lead on a beautiful top corner slap shot as he was streaking down the left wing. Both teams had their chances, but Hertl was the one that cashed. And it was a beauty:

What an absolute rocket by Tomas Hertl. Great shot. pic.twitter.com/cyvOnEVzEo

— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) May 20, 2016

The Sharks really took over in the second period. St. Louis just couldn’t create anything offensively, San Jose was pressuring everywhere, and it culminated in a Joonas Donskoi goal to give the Sharks a 2-0 lead. This game was by no means out of reach at this point, but by the way the teams were playing, it sure felt like it.

For good measure, Hertl scored again after a Blues push to start the third period, and Elliott was pulled. Though the Sharks didn’t rack up the shot totals, they pretty much controlled this game from the middle of the first period on.

It’s worth noting that with an assist on Donskoi’s second period goal, Couture has 46 points in his last 49 games going back to January 1^st. I wonder what to do with him in fantasy, though. Without playing on the top line, I think his upside is capped. There is no doubt that he has 70-plus point potential, but unless he plays 19 minutes a game, I’m not sure he gets there. With the injuries this year, I’m interested to see what his ADP is next year. Does he get out of the third round in a 12-team league?

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Having 19 goals, 120 penalty minutes, and cracking double-digit power play points is a good season. Also, Justin Abdelkader clearly has the trust of coach Jeff Blashill, as he played nearly 18:30 per game last year, which was third among Red Wings forwards behind Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk.

Any player that plays that much, including the second-most power play time on the team, deserves fantasy consideration. The thing is, he’s probably best suited to be a third liner:

What that chart says is that he doesn’t drive the play, and passengers are worrisome in fantasy. He is also a product of ice time, not production, which is another worry. If he’s given a lesser role, he won’t produce. If he were to play 15 minutes a game rather than 18:30, he’s Patrick Maroon instead of David Backes Jr. Some players can take a drop in the lineup and still produce something; Nyquist (keep reading) did that last year. Abdelkader cannot.

Like I mentioned, though, he seems to have the trust of Blashill. Also, if something should happen where he does lose 2-3 minutes a game in ice time, he can still be useful because of his penalty minutes. Abdelkader, though, is the type of guy I avoid for fantasy. He doesn’t drive the play, he can’t create offence, and needs a plethora of ice time just to approach a half point per game. Those are the guys I’ll pass. 

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It is being reported that Jaroslav Halak will be undergoing sports hernia surgery, with an expected recovery time of six to eight weeks. He had been hurt pretty much from March onward, ceding the net to Thomas Greiss in the meantime.

Halak has two more years left on his deal, while Greiss has one. Now, the sample isn’t very big for Greiss, but since he became a regular backup in 2009, he’s third among goalies with at least 4500 minutes played in adjusted five-on-five save percentage. This, from War On Ice, is… well it’s something:

I would caution against using data that goes back eight years. This instance necessitated it just to get the largest sample possible, not skew the data, because Greiss started more than 20 games for the first time in his career this past season. He will be 31 years old this winter.

The Halak surgery does make me wonder about this goaltending situation next year. It would seem that Halak should be fine to start the season, but Greiss was very good both in the regular season and the playoffs. Both are under contract for next year, and Halak is earning three times more than Greiss. That, on top of Halak being about average over the last two years (which is fine), would seem to give him the inside track to the opening day job.

Greiss is a goalie I will be targeting for next season, though. That is all dependent one where is ADP is, but as a third goalie, that’s a solid value. I have liked his game since his days in San Jose, and this year he proved he can handle a larger workload. Sure, Halak probably gets the nod out of the gate, but his leash will probably be a lot shorter than it was in 2015-2016.

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I would never, ever, base my opinion of a player on the play of one game. Or three games. Or 10 games. It’s just plain wrong.

What I will say is that I was incredibly impressed with the performance of Auston Matthews yesterday against the Czech Republic at the World Championships. He had a nice goal in the game, sliding a backhand five-hole, and a more impressive shootout goal, feigning the backhand, and snapping it five-hole coming down the left side.

This was the shootout goal, which I had to rewind a few times to really appreciate:

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📢 advertisement:

— Stephanie (@myregularface) May 19, 2016

The impressive part of all this is that there are essentially three components required for any athlete to become dominant in a team sport:

1. Quick decision-making
2. Quality decision-making
3. Skills to turn decisions into positive results

Athletes – specifically in team sports – need to make the correct split-second decision, and have the abilities to produce a positive result with that decision. That’s what I saw with Matthews on his two goals. Setting aside is overall very solid play all tournament, those two tallies are inspiring. While he had a bit more time to think about his shootout move, both goals looked absolutely effortless, and it just kind of stuck in my head.

Matthews is obviously a highly-skilled player with incredible upside. What those two goals showed was high-level thinking with high-level skill. It’s stating the obvious, but he is just fun to watch.

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The reclamation project – it seems like the third time this has happened – of Zack Kassian continues. After finding some success with the Oilers after having been traded by Montreal following an off-ice incident, Kassian was re-signed yesterday to a one-year, $1.5-million contract. A minimal investment for the team, and next year is probably Kassian’s last chance (again).

I will say, unequivocally, that I have always been a supporter of Kassian in fantasy. He seems to be one of those players, where if he ever approached his potential, could be a solid across-the-board performer in roto leagues. Obviously, he has never really reached his potential, with only one year giving some fantasy value thanks to his 124 penalty minute season in 2013-2014.

There is only consideration for drafts next year in very deep leagues. It is worth noting, though, that since the start of the lockout-shortened season, Kassian has produced 1.57 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five. That puts him in third liner production territory, and that rate is slightly higher than names like Brock Nelson (1.56), Henrik Zetterberg (1.55), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.54), and Patrick Marleau (1.52). At play here is the fact that Kassian has largely played third and fourth line minutes, so he’s not playing the top competition that Zetterberg or RNH would, but by the same token, isn’t getting top-end line mates, either. People might look at the fact that he’s never cracked 30 points and assume he hasn’t been productive in the time he has been given. That is false.

Almost assuredly, Kassian will start the year next year in the bottom-six, and he will have to earn more ice time. But were he to play a full year, something like 15 goals, 30 points, and 120 penalty minutes will certainly play in roto leagues. He has to prove himself in October/November, but in 16-team leagues, he’s worth the gamble.  

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To cover another Red Wings player, Gustav Nyquist was a disappointment this past season for fantasy owners everywhere. There were a few issues at play here, so let’s go through them.

Shots, everybody

At 1.96 shots per game, Nyquist was a fair amount lower in this regard compared to the previous two years at 2.38, and 2.68. It wasn’t purely a drop in ice time, either – he played about a minute and a half less per game than he did over the previous two seasons on aggregate – it was a rate drop as well, as he managed about one shot fewer per 60 minutes at five-on-five than in 2014-2015, and about 2.3 fewer shots per 60 minutes from 2013-2014.

That is a problem because Nyquist’s shot percentage didn’t really tank (it was above 10-percent overall). Even an uptick in shots next year doesn’t guarantee a jump in goals. Should he find some bad fortune and have a 7- or 8-percent shooting season, it would mitigate most jump in shots. 

One problem is that he played more with Riley Sheahan than any other Detroit centre, and while Sheahan is a solid depth piece, he plays low-event hockey, and low-event hockey is bad for fantasy. Combined shot attempts both for and against per 60 minutes with Sheahan/Nyquist on the ice was over 92, but when Nyquist played with anyone else, on aggregate, it was over 105. That is what someone should expect from a defensive-minded line, a role Nyquist should not be in.

Scoring Chances

Nyquist’s high-danger chances were about the same this past year as the year before, with 48 in 82 games in 2015-2016 and 47 in 82 games the year before. That helped stabilize his shooting percentage at five-on-five.

Power Play

The big problem for Nyquist was that he had his power play goal total cut in half. Two years ago, he scored 14 with the man advantage, while he potted just seven last year.

Roots of this problem stems from taking about 3.5 fewer shots per 60 minutes with the man advantage, having a shooting percentage dropped by about six percent, and playing nearly 30 fewer minutes on the PP as well. When everything takes a downturn like that, the season Nyquist just had is the result.

Next Year

Looking to next year, what’s the hope here? Zetterberg and Datsyuk are not the Zetterberg and Datsyuk of even two years ago. Nyquist is probably best suited to play with Dylan Larkin, but that feels like a dream rather than a reality.

I am an ardent supporter of Nyquist. Of all Detroit players over the last few years, he is a guy I watch the closest. He has the hands and the vision to be a 60-point player, but it’s not certain he gets there. He played just over 15 minutes a game last year, and if Jeff Blashill treats him like a third liner that sometimes gets top-six minutes, he doesn’t realistically have 60-point potential. Instead, it’s another season like last year. If he can get nearly 17 minutes a game, and the power play minutes are fairly spread out, I wouldn’t expect more than 20 goals and 50 points. And that’s a shame.

*Some stats from Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, and War On Ice. Cap information from Cap Friendly.