Ramblings: the latest on Lucic, Nichushkin, Sobotka, Trouba, Stamkos and more…

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Milan Lucic has reportedly come to a contract agreement with the Edmonton Oilers. He, along with Jason Demers, has been touring the facilities in Edmonton while management puts forth their best pitch. Apparently, and I think the original source is via the Edmonton Journal, they have a deal worked out. No contract can be officially signed until Friday, but I think they can agree to the main structure of a contract and it’s just not binding. As in, if Team X wanted to waltz in tomorrow and offer $10 million per year he could walk away from Edmonton and it wouldn’t be tampering.

The Oilers have apparently also signed Jason Demers. Sorry, not “signed”. “Agreed to a contract in principle” maybe. Demers is not the answer and I don’t think this is a signing the Oilers should pursue. What they should pursue is a top defenseman using Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov. Take those two out and let’s look at a possible lineup:

Hall – Draisaitl – Pouliot

Lucic – McDavid – Eberle

Maroon – Letestu – Puljujarvi

Korpikoski – Lander – Kassian

Nurse Player X (return they get for RNH/Yak)

Sekera Klefbom

Davidson Demers

Cam Talbot (After December 14: 2.37 GAA, 0.924 SV%)

A marked improvement?

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Vladimir Sobotka, after two years in the KHL, is probably coming back to the NHL to play for the Blues. He still has his $2.725 million arbitration award to play through for this season. Last season he was Omask Avangard’s best offensive player with 34 points in 44 games. Yes, 44 games. He was injured yet again. And therein lies the problem. When he left the NHL he had a career high 33 points and he did it in just 61 games. Clear 50-point potential and frankly I think he can get 60. But only if he can play 82 games! And he can’t and never will. The goal for fantasy owners should be for him to play 70 games. That’s the goal. And that means his ceiling is around 50 points. Expect 40.

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Vancouver GM Jim Benning was fined $50,000 (or an decent normal person’s salary) for saying last week that he wanted to add both Stamkos and Subban to the Canucks this summer.

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Interesting stuff from Boston beatwriter Joe Haggerty:

“According to a hockey source, Don Sweeney and the Boston Bruins “are preparing an offer sheet” this week for Winnipeg Jets defenseman Jacob Trouba as an aggressive option to land a No. 1 defenseman after trades didn’t pan out at last weekend’s NHL Draft.

The Bruins have watched Trouba closely for some time, and clearly have an interest in the 22-year-old D-man with size, offensive abilities and a workhorse nature that’s seen him average more than 22 minutes of ice time per game since entering the league as a 19-year-old…With Trouba, a restricted free agent, and the Jets locked into big money deals to fellow right shot D-men in Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers, the writing has been on the wall for some time that the Jets would need to give one of them up.

Now it appears the Bruins may be willing to put their money, and their assets, where their interest is, and come up with an offer sheet that totals a minimum of $47 million for Trouba’s services.”

📢 advertisement:

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The 18^th overall pick from 2009 has retired from professional hockey. How great was it for Montreal fans and Louis Leblanc to see a highly-ranked local boy go to the Habs? And after 42 games and 10 points for the Habs as a 20 year old, things were looking great. But after that, he couldn’t get it going. Last season he was in the KHL, the Slovak League and the Swiss League. He has decided to go to school at Harvard University.

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Eric Engels is reporting that David Perron is very interested in playing for the Habs and that the interest is quite mutual. A great addition as a second/third line tweener who will score 20 goals and 50 points. The parts that the Habs are adding, assuming he signs, are really solid. But you and I both know that the reason the team will rebound is because Carey Price is healthy.

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Matt Martin is reportedly looking for Deryk Engelland money – over $3 million per season. Crazy? Well, yes. But could he get it? I think it’s possible. Here are his hits, last five seasons (pro-rating the lockout year to 80 games):

359

382

359

390

374

You can talk about “home bias” on hits, but I hear that every year about the leader. Minnesota was supposed to be biased about hits, but as soon as Cal Clutterbuck left, that kind of talk magically disappeared. Regardless, even if you cut Martin’s hits in half – IN HALF! – he’d still be Top 20 year after year after year.

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So Monday I dialed back my Steven Stamkos to the Leafs projection to a much more conservative 10%-20% chance due to cap concerns after being pretty bold and vocal about it being almost a certainty for much of the past year. It seems as though as soon as I dialed it back, 50 articles cropped up about how it’s likely he’ll go there. I’m often pretty stubborn about the positions I take, sticking to my guns until it’s absolutely time to give up. But on this I feel like a fickle little kid. I think he wants to play in Toronto, but I also know he could get $10 million from a team per season on a seven-year contract. And that’s way above what the Leafs can afford. Would he go there for $8.5 per year, taking a discount? Could the Leafs go that high? I’m gonna go back up to 50%, and that’s where I’ll stay until Friday. Or until someone posts another convincing argument.

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This is probably just posturing, but Valeri Nichushkin is speaking with Traktor of the KHL about possibly returning there.

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Here’s Neil Parker on the Fantasy Sports Network with his take on ‘Big 3’ of this year’s draft:

9 Comments

Striker 2016-06-29 at 07:45Log in to Reply

Dobber.

I fully agree with Edm trading RNH & Yakupov to acquire the best Dman they can find, ideally a right handed player. I would still take Demer’s as well, as long as the salary & term are acceptable, in or around 4.75 for no more than 5 years.

Do you honestly believe the Bruin’s are giving up 4 1st round picks to sign Trouba & pay him over $9,131,645 mil per season? Which is the only way Boston could offer sheet Trouba based on the requirement of having to have your own picks in the year of the offer sheet is made. Boston doesn’t have it’s 2nd or 3rd in 2017 so they would have to hit the $9,131,645 threshold per year just to offer sheet Trouba. Apparently Haggerty just won’t let this issue go; I contacted him when he 1st started reporting Boston was going to offer sheet someone early last week, explaining Boston’s situation & this was his answer. “They will make the max compensation offer.” They won’t & he is making himself look foolish. Something he accomplishes regularly. I can only assume Haggerty has lost his mind; possibly self induced, as making such outlandish statements seriously calls into question his validity, integrity & professionalism as a journalist. This report makes no sense & I can’t see how it has any basis in merit.

Compensation requirements.

Amount Compensation Due
$1,205,377 or below None
Over $1,205,377 to $1,826,328 3rd round pick
Over $1,826,328 to $3,652, 659 2nd round pick
Over $3,652,659 to $5,478,986 1st and 3rd round pick
Over $5,478,986 to $7,305,316 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick
Over $7,305,316 to $9,131,645 Two 1st’s, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
Over $9,131,645 Four 1st round picks

Boston has their 1st, Edm’s 2nd & no 3rd in 2017. Now if Boston reacquired their 2nd from NJ; Stempniak trade, & 3rd from Philadelphia; Rinaldo trade, then maybe Boston could make an offer sheet to someone.

On a final note related to offer sheets. If I’m a team with my 1st, 2nd & 3rd in 2017, have the cap space available & am in need of a #1 Dman; who isn’t, I’m offer sheeting Seth Jones, 7 years at $7,305,316 million per, front end loading the contract as much as allowed under the current CBA. Columbus is serious pressed for cap space. They would be forced to match the offer; as a 1st, 2nd & 3rd for this stud Dman in the making isn’t fair compensation. nHe played as Columbus’s #1 after being traded.

Columbus would then would be forced to move out 1 of the existing 4 D; Jones, Murray, Savard or Johnson. Which really needs to happen regardless before the expansion draft due to the # of players with NMC’s; Dubinsky, Foligno, Clarkson, Hartnell, Tyutin & Bobrovsky, on Columbus’s roster, the quality of forwards that are keepers over & above; Saad, Atkinson, Jenner & Wenneberg. I assume Columbus is buying out Tyiutin & trading Hartnell but even then they would still need to move a player pre expansion draft & need cap space.

With the current group of forwards in Columbus they really need to be protecting 7F, 3D & 1G unless they can convince Clarkson to allow himself to be exposed for the expansion draft. He wouldn’t get selected regardless but as it stands now with his NMC he is required to be protected. No team has positioned themselves worse for expansion. If they are buying out Tyutin he needs to be waved today as the buyout window closes June 30th & then the only way to get a 2nd opportunity to buy out a player is if you have a contract settled by an arbitrator. That opens a 48 hour window for teams to buy out another player if they so choose.

Interesting times.
- Striker 2016-06-29 at 08:20Log in to Reply
  
  These compensation requirements in dollars have increased at the same rate as the cap. These dollar #’s are from the conclusion of the last CBA negotiations & ratification in 2013.
- Dobber 2016-06-29 at 08:23Log in to Reply
  
  The link to the Boston offer sheet already breaks down the compensation, their reasoning, etc. I don’t know if they would do it, and I’m not so sure that I would.
  I don’t think $4 million is reasonable for Demers, Edmonton would regret that. Maybe $3 million IMO, and he can probably do better on the market so who knows
  - Striker 2016-06-29 at 08:32Log in to Reply
    
    I don’t disagree with you. I don’t want to pay a #4 Dman that much money either it just seems to be the going rate for them & as a UFA premiums are generally paid, although in this cap world we have seen restraint. Spending in last years UFA market was far more subdued than in past seasons but with some big names available this summer & some teams with terrible holes especially at D I assume we are going to see some big monies thrown around.
    
    Coburn, Sbisa, Gudas, etc. all got more than 3 million per?
    - Dobber 2016-06-29 at 08:44Log in to Reply
      
      An even bigger issue for me is that if they pay Demers $4 million…will that stop them from acquiring a top D using RNH and Yak? Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse are all better than Demers. So if Player X comes over, Demers becomes the No.5 guy. Pay the No.5 guy $4 million? Yikes
      - Striker 2016-06-29 at 10:15
        
        I haven’t added Demers to EDM’s depth chart as it hasn’t actually happened as yet. There are reports Klefbom’s skin graph isn’t healing properly, that the layers of skin aren’t regenerating properly. I don’t know if this is fact or hyper boil but it’s concerning. Nurse could use far more seasoning in a less significant role, playing more sheltered minutes. Good defenses are 3 pairings deep & pigeon holing Dman 1, 2,3,4,5 & 6 isn’t as clean or clear as it used to be. I loom at pairings but after that it’s TOI/GP for me ranking sequentially if you need to give them a ranking. 1,2, 3 etc.
        
        Edmonton appears to be having difficulty acquiring the Dman they need at a cost acceptable to them. Naturally as they almost never move & when they do, on the very rare occasion that they actually do, there are always extenuating circumstances. Expansion looming is a great extenuating circumstance but Minnesota is the only team that has to move 1 as they have 5. You would assume Columbus will move 1 as if not they are losing 1 of Atkinson, Jenner or Wenneberg. 1 less from these 3 if they can convince Clarkson to waive his NMC for the expansion draft.
        
        Reinhart & Oesterle are still waiver exempt & can be sent down as could Nurse if Edm were so inclined although I don’t see that. Also it wouldn’t shock me to see Fayne traded or bought out although if being bought out he would potentially need to be put on waivers today as the 1st buy out window closes tomorrow & Edm has no RFA’s heading to arbitration so won’t get a 2nd opportunity.
        
        Hypothesizing lets say Edm’s D looks like this.
        
        Sekera, D to be acquired in trade.
        Klefbom, Demers.
        Nurse/ Fayne.
        Davidsson, Osterle.
        
        Now should Edmonton not buy out Fayne & not secure a top 2 right handed Dman any time soon add Reinhart back into the mix shuffle as you choose. Only Demers & Fayne are right handed. If they do I could see Nurse being sent down until Edm can find away to potentially get Fayne off the books, possibly eating salary or providing enticement for another team to take him on.
        
        To cloudy at the moment to really have a clue but even with a top 2 right handed Dman added of which there are few, Demers still makes the 2nd pairing. The only 2 right handed Dman that look to be available are Dumba who isn’t any where near a 1 or 2 today & may never be & possibly Savard from Columbus.
        
        Shattenkirk would be perfect but do you see him signing an extension with Edmonton? If he does go there he slots into that #1 right defense slot. Nurse, Daviddson & Fayne share the #6 spot. Injures happen & all teams dress at least 8 Dman in 30 plus games annually.
        
        If that’s Edmonton’s future D just acquiring demers & nothing else it is a significant improvement over last season regardless as long as Klefbom can play. He, Nurse & Davidsson are all on the upswing.
      - djr417 2016-06-29 at 13:40
        
        the Demers talks will start at $4mil, i expect him to get closer to $5mil. Personally i would take him over all the dmen currently has except maybe Sekera (close). Nurse still has a ton of potential,slightly less for Klefbom and they both could be top pairing dmen- but at this point in their careers 2nd pairing is all the Oilers mgmt should as for. Yakupov’s trade value seems to drop every season, and I have yet to hear of any plausible deals for RNH, maybe once Stamkos signs somewhere, he will become the consolation prize. Carolina could use a top center, but will one of their young dmen be enough? Im not sold on RNH as a true #1 center, a good #2- but that maybe his ceiling.
isle b. 2016-06-29 at 11:23Log in to Reply

While Demers isn’t the answer to all of the Oilers’ problems, he is certainly better than everyone they have healthy right now aside from Sekera. Also, the kind of defenseman they really need probably isn’t on the market (i.e., maybe a Shattenkirk could be had for RNH, but they really need a Pietrangelo-type).
Neil Parker 2016-06-29 at 11:49Log in to Reply

Edmonton can’t be afraid to overpay in a deal. Maybe you lose the trade on paper, but if it makes the team better overall, you have to pull the trigger. They’re going to have to overpay because 29 other teams know the precarious position they’re in.