Top 10 Players Sure to Disappoint

Tom Collins

2016-07-25

Top 10 star players sure to disappoint in 2016-17 (i.e. bar is raised so high they're bound to fall short)

Although this may seem like the slowest time of year for NHL hockey, it's one of the busiest for dynasty leagues. Many fantasy general managers have already had to submit their list of dropped players and some have even started drafting. So there's already lots of talk and lots of hype for many NHL players. But general managers are always optimistic this time of year. Every breakthrough player is scheduled for top-six ice time (or so it seems).

But there are always disappointments. This year will be no different. Here are the top 10 soon-to-be disappointments for the 2016-17 season.

Again – This is not a list of 'busts'. It is a matter of setting the bar of expectations so high that these players are bound to fall short…

10. Matt Murray

Many GMs are expecting a lot from Murray this season. They believe the Pens have all but decided to go with Murray in the long run and Marc-Andre Fleury will either be traded or taken in the expansion draft. But expectations need to be tempered. Fleury has at least 34 wins in seven of the last eight seasons: the lone exemption is the lockout-shortened season. And Fleury is starting a three-year deal that has a cap hit of $5.75 million annually. And he has a no-movement clause. I'm not saying there won't be a goalie battle in Pittsburgh. But even if Murray does win it, there will be no hesitancy to switch back to Fleury if needed.

9. Erik Karlsson

I believe he'll finish in the 60 to 70 point range, which will be a disappoint for anyone expecting 80-plus points again. New coach Guy Boucher will be a big reason. Former Sens coach Dave Cameron was a big fan of Karlsson and was fond of saying that EK always had the green light to go on the offense. And Karlsson responded with an 82-point season this year and a total of 128 points in 138 games under Cameron. But now he'll be asked to keep it reeled in just a little and that will affect his point totals a little.

8. Auston Matthews (his prospect profile is here)

There's a lot of hype for Matthews being the savior in Toronto. It's almost become too much. There are plenty of GMs that are wondering if Matthews can be as good as Connor McDavid. Plus playing in Leaf-land is going to build up expectations. But what happens if he has a slow start? How many games until we get the whole "What is wrong with Matthews" type of stories? Of the last 10 first overall picks, only Patrick Kane and Nathan MacKinnon got 55-plus points in their rookie season. Don't expect a great season from Matthews just yet.

7. Jimmy Vesey (his prospect profile is here)

The college graduate hasn't even signed anywhere yet — he can't do so until Aug. 15 except for Buffalo — but there's lots of hype. But college free agents don't have the greatest record in the NHL. Just look at Justin Schultz. Remember Vesey will still be a rookie no matter where he signs and there will be growing pains.

6. Alex Galchenyuk

Galchenyuk is another name I see out there as being ready to have a breakout season. But I can sum up why he might not be ready in two words: Michel Therrien. Therrien loves to juggle lines and putting plugs up on the first line in favour of others (remember how time Dale Weise would get with Max Pacioretty?). Galchenyuk could start on the top line and be demoted to a line with Torrey Mitchell and Brian Flynn before the third game of the season.

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5. John Gibson

A lot of poolies were very excited when Frederik Andersen was finally dealt out of Anaheim. No more goalie time share! And then the rest of the deal was completed weeks later and Anaheim wound up with Jonathan Bernier. And while Bernier hasn't been fantasy relevant in, well, ever, he can still steal starts. Plus Gibson is a Band-Aid boy. And new coach Randy Carlyle loved Bernier in Toronto. So there's a lot of worries with Gibson.

4. Leon Draisaitl

Draisaitl had an excellent season with 51 points in 72 games. Many expect that he will build on that. But I think he'll hit a bit of a wall. His best linemate — Taylor Hall — was shipped to New Jersey. Hall was on the ice for 44 of Draisaitl's 51 points. The other issue is that Draisaitl is a centre and could be on the third line behind Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins instead of a top-six role.

3. Robby Fabbri

There's been a lot of talk about how Fabbri will have a breakthrough season as there's plenty of extra ice time since David Backes and Troy Brouwer left the Blues through free agency. But let's not forget that the Blues were riddled with injuries all season. Jaden Schwartz, Patrik Berglund, Paul Stastny and Alex Steen all missed time because of various ailments. Throw in Jori Lehtera, Vladimir Tarasenko, Dmitrij Jaskin and the newly-signed David Perron, and that's eight of your top nine. There's not a lot of extra ice time for Fabbri.

2. Jonathan Drouin

Fantasy owners are drooling after Drouin had an excellent playoff. But let's not lose sight of what is happening in Tampa. He got plenty of ice time thanks to Steven Stamkos being out with a blood clot. But in the regular season he had a slow start, a trade demand, being sent to the AHL, not reporting to the AHL, finally reporting and then suspended for a game for being late to a team meeting. You think head coach John Cooper is automatically going to start Drouin on the top line and give him 20 minutes a game after his performance last year? Not a chance. He'll have to earn it and keep it up all throughout the season.

1. Loui Eriksson

I'm a little surprised by the hype Eriksson has been getting after his 63-point season. Now he's signed in Vancouver and people expect him to have instant chemistry with the Sedin twins. But that's no guarantee. Let's put some things into perspective. He just had his first 30-goal season since 2008-09, and his first 60-point season since 2011-12. And it was a contract year obviously. I don't like the odds of him having back-to-back 60-point seasons when it's the first time he's done it in five years.

Ryan Lenethen 2016-07-25 at 08:42Log in to Reply

As a two time disappointed owner, you forgot all about Radulov and all the hype around that…
- Dobber 2016-07-25 at 08:50Log in to Reply
  
  Yes! Good one! Nowhere to go but down, for that guy
- Tom Collins 2016-07-25 at 09:10Log in to Reply
  
  I considered him. But from what I’ve seen, most think he’s good for around 50-60 points. Which I think is entirely doable for him. He’d have to be really bad to be a disappointment.
  - Dobber 2016-07-25 at 09:15Log in to Reply
    
    Uh oh, so after they read my Guide…THEN their expectations will be raised ;)
    
    (my projection is 62 points)
  - Ryan Lenethen 2016-07-27 at 08:32Log in to Reply
    
    I’m not so much critical of his skill. As you say I think he has proven that more less. What I am more concerned about is his temperament and flight risk.
    
    All it takes is one disagreement between him and the couch, the couch limiting his ice time, or benching him for bad behavior, and Radulov giving them all the finger, breaking contract and simply returning to the KHL. Again. At which point the 50-60 pts projection is out the window as he only played a fraction of the seasons games… Not to mention if in a keeper pool, the fact that he is then useless as a future player on some other team or for possible trades because he doesn’t even plan in the NHL anymore…
    
    Also with only a 1 year contract, there is really little incentive for management to put up with anything resulting in a better chance that given “issues” will simply play players with longer potential and contracts. On Radulov’s side, again with only a 1 year contract, that isn’t much to keep him there should the experiment go a bit sideways on him.
    - Tom Collins 2016-07-27 at 14:48Log in to Reply
      
      Yes, all that might happen. But except for the KHL flight risk, that could happen to any player. your paragraph could also sum up Drouin as well: disagreement with coach, benchings and limited ice time, the player giving management the finger.
      
      I’m not sure, but I think there’s an agreement in place between the KHL and NHL that wasn’t there the last time he fled where he can’t play in the K unless Montreal releases him (similar to Kovalchuk and Semin). So I’m not sure if that is an option.
- puckman 2016-07-25 at 10:28Log in to Reply
  
  We all agree that high expectations may cause disappointment. To avoid that, lets have a conservative projection on Radulov’s numbers: how about 28G22A solid 50pts including 50% production on PP. Few arguments with coach and linemates, switches from 2nd to 4th line, even a few stints on top line to boost it. Oh, and he’s only signed for 1 Yr, which means dudes like Phaneuf or Foligno cause(d) more distress because of their ugly contracts…
Phil G 2016-07-25 at 09:59Log in to Reply

Have to agree that it’s possible Karlsson finishes with “only” 70 points, but I dissagree on the reason. If he does regress, it won’t be because of Boucher, if anything, his offensive game should grow.

Here are my arguments, supported by quotes from Boucher himself:
1. Boucher has an excellent track record in coaching elite talent (see Stamkos’ 60-goal season).
2. Boucher says he watched approximately 30 of the Senators games after the Christmas break and he’s got a very good sense of what Karlsson brings to the table.
3. He does not subscribe to the theory of needing to radically change a superstar to play a certain way. Instead, Boucher believes that Karlsson’s defensive game needs to “evolve” – but that will only come with him remaining as one of the elite offensive blueliners in the game.
4. “I’ve been watching him for a long time,” explained Boucher. “To me, I find that people focus on players’ weaknesses too much.”
5. “I’m so excited to have him on this team, so I can coach him. With somebody like that there’s so many possibilities. We’re going to ask him to drive this team with his strengths. Everything that he brings is going to be focused on what he does best.”
- Tom Collins 2016-07-25 at 10:52Log in to Reply
  
  Good points. But Ottawa gave up the most shots in the league last year (and has been one of the worst for years) and also gave up the fifth most goals against. I don’t think Boucher is going to stifle Karlsson, but I don’t think Karlsson will have the sign that it’s always okay to go on the attack. Boucher is going to want defense first, which will hamper EK’s production somewhat.
  - Mark 2016-07-26 at 16:51Log in to Reply
    
    Will Phaneuf help much?
isle b. 2016-07-25 at 11:29Log in to Reply

With Steen likely out until at least November, the Blues’ injury train will keep on chugging. Also, Fabbri outproduced most of those players whose injuries paved the way for his emergence in the 2nd half of last season and playoffs.
Rick Roos 2016-07-25 at 14:26Log in to Reply

Let’s face facts – this is a VERY difficult type of list to put together; and for every one player selected, there could’ve been ten others poolies could make a compelling case to include. But I think this list is very, very solid. And it’s also about more than the specific players included – it’s about what each of these players represents. The UFA who probably played above his head to cash in (Eriksson), the younger players who made headlines when all eyes were on them and thus have unrealistic expectations attached to them (Drouin, Fabbri, Murray), and the untested assets (Matthews, Vesey).
- Mark 2016-07-25 at 15:29Log in to Reply
  
  The list would be easier to make if you made one for each conference, wouldn’t it? I love lists like these.
  - Tom Collins 2016-07-25 at 20:58Log in to Reply
    
    I should really think of doing things like that more often. It would allow me to add more players and make it easier in terms of coming up with list ideas.
- Tom Collins 2016-07-25 at 20:57Log in to Reply
  
  Thanks Rick! I never even realized it worked out that way.
LAKings 2016-07-25 at 15:31Log in to Reply

Thanks for being the only one to mention Drouin as a “disappointment” among all the breakout-hype. I’ve learned not to overrate playoff breakouts. He won’t score more than 40 pts next season.

Don’t get me wrong, I do believe that he’ll be an offensive star in this league – I just don’t quite think it will already be next year.

Bottom line: temper your expectations for 16/17, draft accordingly, and you’ll be fine.
- puckman 2016-07-25 at 16:09Log in to Reply
  
  Of course if we expect a 60G40A season we can already place him as THE biggest disappointment. But if we project a 55-65 pts season it will be within reach since he is showing signs of greatness plus working harder around the boards. I am sure he gets 20-25G + 30-40A if he plays 80 games!
- Tom Collins 2016-07-25 at 20:59Log in to Reply
  
  I won’t believe Drouin will be an offensive star until he actually does it over 30 or 40 straight NHL games.
puckman 2016-07-25 at 16:13Log in to Reply

How about the more established player (only Karlsson among the top 10??) How about Stamkos for instance?? will he ever score 50G again? How about P.Kane?? can we expect another “beast mode” season, or more like 70 pts in 68 games + injuries??
- Dobber 2016-07-25 at 16:48Log in to Reply
  
  Kane a great call. I think people will be disappointed with what he ends up with.
  Stamkos, geez, you should have hopped on board the Dobber Train years ago when St. Louis left. My expectations have never been high since then ;)
  - Mark 2016-07-26 at 16:48Log in to Reply
    
    Replacing St. Louis with Valtteri Filppula – who would have thought he’d experience a drop-off in production?
- Tom Collins 2016-07-25 at 20:52Log in to Reply
  
  Kane was a tough omission. I hemmed and hawed about him. Truth be told, I have no idea what people are expecting out of Kane this year. 80 points? 90? 110? Just winning the Art Ross? No idea. So I found it tough to peg whether he could be considered a disappointment since I didn’t really know expectations.
larrylintz 2016-07-25 at 22:16Log in to Reply

While I’m not convinced Karlsson will hit 80 again i don’t buy the argument here. Cameron was saying when he took over that he wanted to get EK thinking more about defence, to be a less aggressive risk-taker. But EK follows the beat of his own drummer, i don’t think you can contain someone that creative. Throw in the fact that he’ll have a much better centre on the PP in Brassard, to take some of the pressure off him, and i think he’ll easily surpass 70. Brassard also gives them two very good lines, and potentially three if Smith/Pageau prove not to be a mirage.
But please spread the word about him being overrated so the price goes down!!!
LAKings 2016-07-26 at 08:51Log in to Reply

Imo it’s not correct to call Vesey a “college free agent”. Yes, technically he is one right now, but, just like Schultz or Hayes, he was drafted. He’s a free agent because HE decided to be, not because nobody wanted him and he went undrafted.
“Real” college free agents are e.g. Caggiula, Bozak, Krug, De Keyser, Purcell etc. Imo you’re comparing apples and oranges here.
Richard Tyler 2016-07-26 at 16:30Log in to Reply

In what universe is Jaskin higher than Fabbri on the Blues depth chart?
- LAKings 2016-07-27 at 05:34Log in to Reply
  
  In what universe does the article say that?
- Tom Collins 2016-07-27 at 08:25Log in to Reply
  
  I didn’t say that. I was simply pointing out that there’s a lot of players already in the top nine for the Blues, so you shouldn’t automatically assume Fabbri will be the one to get extra ice time.
  - Richard Tyler 2016-07-27 at 09:55Log in to Reply
    
    Thanks for the explanation. The phrasing suggests that’s what you’re saying– you list 8 players and say “That’s 8 of the top 9 there”, which naturally insinuates that Fabbri would be spot 9 at best. Obviously not your intention, though. Just your typical linguistics issue where one person’s brain reads another person’s thoughts in a manner that they weren’t intended. Good article nonetheless.
    - Tom Collins 2016-07-27 at 14:41Log in to Reply
      
      Thanks!