This week's Capped discusses a few offseason contracts that we will likely look back on as overpayments

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          The calendar has flipped to October, and that means we are a mere week away from the start of the NHL season. This is maybe the most exciting time of year as a collective whole for hockey fans. Every team has hope coming into the season. From offseason moves, to internal growth, every team has many reasons to be hopeful. No team has a loss yet, and the playoffs are actually a possibility (even in Toronto and Edmonton). That all changes, though, as soon as the season starts. Since 2005/2006 when the NHL did away with tie games, every game has to have a loser. For certain teams losses start piling up, a few players start slumping, and maybe there is an injury or two. Even as early as November, the playoffs (and optimism) can seem to fade away, and the questions can begin.

          At that point, fans and media start pointing fingers (maybe even the players start pointing fingers too). Some of it comes down to the management and the coaching, but ultimately it is the players that play the game. Fans seem to often target the players who earn the most money, so let’s take an early look at some new contracts from the offseason, and see if we can pinpoint some of the players that are already starting with a target on their back. Fans and poolies alike should beware putting too much hope into these names.

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Darren Helm (C) –  Detroit Red Wings

Contract –  5 years at $3.85-million per year

          Darren Helm was a July 1^st re-signing for the Detroit Red Wings. They seem to know what they have with him, and they are paying him for that. The problem for fantasy owners is that the Red Wings aren’t paying him to put up points. Helm had a decent season last year, and seems to be settling into a career as a defensively responsible centre who can be shuffled up and down the lineup. We can expect his ice time to stay around the 15-16 minute a game mark, however it is the short-handed ice time that will be his fantasy undoing. From the 2014-15 season to the 2015-16 season, his power play ice time was halved, and his short-handed ice time was increased by a full minute. Increased short-handed ice time is not conducive to scoring a lot of points.

          The last two seasons, Helm missed a few games, and then went on to put up 33 and 26 points. A rebound to 30 points can be expected, but hoping for much more would be foolish. Prior to last year, Helm battled his way through a mixture of injuries, including the strange back injury that held him to only one game in the 2012-13 season. If Helm can stay healthy and effective, then his contract may not come off as awful for the Red Wings. However, there isn’t much to be rewarded for by owning him in a cap league for the next few years.

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Matt Martin (LW) –  Toronto Maple Leafs

Contrac  –  4 years at $2.5-million per year

          Matt Martin signing on July 1^st wasn’t expected to break the bank, though he came closer than most thought he would; the $10-million contract he signed for the next four years will make him one of the highest-paid fourth line wingers in the league.

Martin knows his role though, and he does it well. Every season he is among the league leaders in hits, and can chip in with the occasional points too. In previous years he has made a great late round pick in some fantasy leagues due to the fact he can win you the hits stat almost on his own. Before this new contract, he was on a bargain contract too, making $1-million per season. Most owners may have thought he would get a raise to the $1.5 Million plateau, but he wasn’t pegged to get a raise over $2-million by many people.

          The Toronto Maple Leafs apparently saw something in Matt Martin. Maybe it was due to last season’s success of pest Leo Komarov on the top line that the Leafs are hoping for something of the same out of Martin. Komarov was a great addition to the leafs lineup, adding some much needed toughness, providing a net-front body, and chipping in with more than his fair share of offence (19 goals and 36 points). If Martin ends up playing up on the third line for Toronto, then he could end up matching a production warranted by his contract, but with the logjam of kids that are going to be taking regular shifts with the Leafs, it doesn’t seem likely. Especially considering that fact that coach Mike Babcock will want to shelter the kids from defensive roles, so someone will have to take up more of that time. One of those players will be Matt Martin.

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David Backes (RW) –  Boston Bruins

Contract –  5 years at $6-million per year

          David Backes was one of the bigger name free agents, and as such, he got one of the bigger contracts of the free-agent season. His contract may not seem all that excessive this season, especially if he ends up on the top line (he hasn’t been so far in the preseason – take a look into David Pastrnak for the bargain there). However, Backes being 32 years of age, and a very physical player, will start to see a decline in production soon, if it hasn’t already started. Backes saw a small increase in overall ice time, and his power-play/shorthanded minutes stayed the same, yet he had a scoring rate of less than 80% of what he scored the previous two seasons. Backes’s plus/minus and penalty minutes have also declined. Worst of all, he is being shifted to wing, and will lose a lot of his value because he won’t be a big faceoff contributor this season.

This season, more of the same can likely be expected of Backes as he has shown in years previous. That being said, the time is now (really it was last season), to try and get out from under Backes and his contract. Yes he can produce across categories, but faceoffs and hits are much more easily filled out for cheap at the bottom of a roster. 

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As a closing note, it was actually harder than I expected it to be to find contracts from this summer that were overpayments on market value and on what was expected for the player. So a pat on the back to GMs this year for not signing any easily evident David Clarkson-type deals. Also a huge pat on the back to Edwin Encarnacion and the Blue Jays for their thrilling win last night, and best of luck in the first round against Texas.

If you have any thoughts on the three players I have listed (agreement or disagreement) I would love to hear it. I would also be interested to hear opinions in the comments on who the most overpaid signings of the 2016 summer could be.

Thanks again for reading, and the next time you get a Capped Column, the NHL season will have begun! 

Previous Capped articles

Unheralded Signings from the Summer

Unconventional Contract Structures