What to expect from Jamie Benn in the second half.

The NHL schedule is a mighty grind. Sure, it’s not the 162-contest calendar that Major League Baseball rolls out, but the wear and tear on the body pales in comparison to what hockey players endure. Throw in the condensed schedule due to the World Cup of Hockey this summer and it’s not unreasonable to believe that many guys were just holding on until the holiday break and some much-needed rest and relaxation.

This week on Frozen Pool Forensics, we’re looking at a player who should be rejuvenated and ready to burst out of the break and thrust your fantasy team in right direction for 2017.

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Few players have been as locked in as Jamie Benn over the previous three seasons. 79, 87 and 89 points have been the last three full season totals for the Olympic gold medalist – good for a 1.04 point-per-game output. Those 255 points are second only to Sidney Crosby’s 273 and sit a full 16 points ahead of Patrick Kane.

Top 10 Point Categories – Oct. 2013 – Apr. 2016

Rank	Name	Pos	Age	Yrs	Team	GR	GP	EV	PP	SH	Pts/G	TOI	PTS/60	Points
1	CROSBY,SIDNEY	C	29	9	PIT	45	237	179	94	0	1.15	20:49	3.3	273
2	BENN,JAMIE	L	27	5	DAL	46	245	170	72	13	1.04	19:43	3.2	255
3	KANE,PATRICK	R	28	7	CHI	45	212	155	84	0	1.13	19:59	3.4	239
4	SEGUIN,TYLER	C	24	4	DAL	46	223	154	80	0	1.05	19:27	3.2	234
5	OVECHKIN,ALEXANDER	L	31	9	WSH	49	238	132	97	1	0.97	20:23	2.8	230
6	GIROUX,CLAUDE	R	28	7	PHI	45	241	122	102	2	0.94	20:30	2.7	226
7	BACKSTROM,NICKLAS	C	29	7	WSH	49	239	117	107	1	0.94	19:51	2.8	225
8	PAVELSKI,JOE	C	32	8	S.J	47	245	135	88	2	0.92	19:55	2.8	225
9	THORNTON,JOE	C	37	16	S.J	47	241	151	71	1	0.93	18:34	3.0	224
10	TAVARES,JOHN	C	26	5	NYI	48	219	145	77	1	1.02	20:35	3.0	223

Numbers such as these are tangible, unimpeachable evidence to select the Dallas Stars’ captain at the very top of your fantasy drafts. Heading into this season, he was widely viewed as an assured top-five forward in straight points-leagues and potentially even higher in those who consider positional requirements.

All this is to say, his 30 points in 36 games hasn’t been up to snuff.

SEASON	GP	G	A	P	PntPG	+/-	PIM	Shots	SH%	HITS	PPG	PPP	SHG	BLKS	FOW	FO%	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
2016-2017	36	10	20	30	0.83	-7	33	81	12.3	54	6	11	0	21	152	54.9	03:31	59.8	30.7	20:13	33.4
2015-2016	82	41	48	89	1.09 📢 advertisement:	7	64	247	16.6	156	17	30	2	55	226	47.3	03:12	62.2	31.6	20:01	33.0
2014-2015	82	35	52	87	1.06	1	64	253	13.8	120	10	23	2	50	298	51.7	03:34	60.8	28.5	19:57	32.9
2013-2014	81	34	45	79	0.98	21	64	279	12.2	118	5	19	1	60	411	52.8	03:40	60.2	14.7	19:09	31.5
2012-2013	41	12	21	33	0.80	-12	40	110	10.9	71	3	10	0	32	327	46.1	03:19	56.3	7.5	19:55	32.9
Average	82	34	47	81	0.99	3	67	247	13.6	132	10	24	1	56	360	50.2	03:28	60.2	23.2	19:47	32.6

Looking at the wider scope, Benn has missed out on off-season training the last two summers due to rehabbing some major injuries – he had both his hips surgically repaired after the 2014-15 campaign and then surgery on a ‘major core muscle’ after last season. The latter of which held him out of the World Cup of hockey and is a likely cause to point a finger at for his sluggish start.

Here’s where all that turkey and eggnog are going to come into play.

While four days off doesn’t sound like a lengthy vacation, for a player who has likely been playing catch-up since October, the time off was surely a welcomed sight.

Jamie Benn scored 105 points in the 2015 calendar year.
So far in the 2016 calendar year, he has 61.
He also went from +24 to -22.
— Rob Vollman (@robvollmanNHL) December 11, 2016

Injuries haven’t been the only thing holding Benn and the Stars down this season. First and foremost, they continue to receive inadequate goaltending. When you’re playing behind in games, you take more chances and inevitably give up more goals against.

Dallas has received the fourth worst goaltending this year with a team save percentage that sits at just .901. This can help explain Benn’s minus-seven rating thus far.

The Stars have also suffered from a host of slumps from their core group. Jason Spezza, once considered a virtual lock for 60 points, is finally showing some life after starting with just 11 points in his first 20 games. Burgeoning super-stud defenseman, John Klingberg is having a touch of the less-familiar ‘third-year-flu’. Patrick Sharp has been all but a ghost, suffering from post-concussion symptoms, and the loss of Mattias Janmark for six months cannot be overstated.

All that said, the wheels are starting to be lubed up and the production is starting to trickle in. At the writing of this article, Benn had racked up nine points in his last nine games while just three of those have come on the slowly improving Dallas’ power play. Maintaining that even-strength production is so crucial when attempting to predict results.

Advanced Stats

Year	PDO	5 on 5 SH%	Off. Zone Start %	PTS/60	IPP
2016-17	999	5.96	43.13	2.5	52.6
2015-16	984	8.91	54.25	3.3	57.1
2014-15	1011	10.58	54.07	3.2	57.1
2013-14	1035	11.36	56.78	3.1	56.1
2012-13	983	9.15	57.07	2.4	52.7
2011-12	1016	10.15	47.34	2.9	60.0
2010-11	1016	10.12	58.94	2.7	80.5

Looking at his last seven seasons, we can see that the Victoria, B.C. native is seeing far fewer offensive zone start times than previous campaigns and his five-on-five shooting percentage is at a career-low. Couple that with his personal conversion rate being slightly below career average and you can see that the production is likely to see some positive regression as time moves along.

It doesn’t hurt that he continues to play over 80 percent of his even-strength shifts and all his power play time next to Tyler Seguin.

Even Strength Lin Combinations

Freq	Line Combination
51.9%	BENN,JAMIE – EAVES,PATRICK – SEGUIN,TYLER
18.8%	BENN,JAMIE – SEGUIN,TYLER – SPEZZA,JASON
13.2%	BENN,JAMIE – EAKIN,CODY – SEGUIN,TYLER
11.7%	BENN,JAMIE – FAKSA,RADEK – KORPIKOSKI,LAURI
4.4%	BENN,JAMIE – EAVES,PATRICK – FAKSA,RADEK

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Conclusions

In the last three seasons, Benn has come out of the holiday break and produced: 39 points in 39 games in 2013-14, 44 points in 44 games in 2014-15, and 40 points in 42 games in 2015-16.

He has consistently proven to be a thoroughbred in the fantasy world and despite the tepid start to his current campaign, still sits among the top-20 point producers – four points out of the top 10 and just seven away from the top five. Would anyone be surprised to see him put up a point-per-game pace or better through the back 45 games and finish up in the 75-point range?

With a refreshing break to build off; a rock-solid history of production, captaining a team that appears to be in a dog fight for a wild card spot and displaying metrics that should continue to positively regress, Benn shows all the signs of a premier fantasy option in the back half of the season.

It’s not like we haven’t seen him do it before.

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Thanks for reading and feel free to follow me on Twitter @CrazyJoeDavola3 where I often give unsolicited fantasy advice that I’m sure at least someone is listening to.

2 Comments

Stu Campaigne 2016-12-31 at 10:30Log in to Reply

Is it possible for Benn to be partial points ahead of Kane?
MarkRM16 2016-12-31 at 15:03Log in to Reply

I think the Stars’ downgraded defense corps plus all of their injuries have definitely dented his numbers. Less PPP plus more checking pressure because their 2nd line has been a mess all year – no Hemsky, Hudler, Sharp, Nichuskin leaving, etc

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11	WSH	vs	COL
Nov 21 - 19:11	CBJ	vs	T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11	OTT	vs	VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11	DET	vs	NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11	BOS	vs	UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11	N.J	vs	CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11	STL	vs	S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11	CHI	vs	FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11	CGY	vs	NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11	EDM	vs	MIN