West: Calgary’s 3M Line – Offensive Zone Starts and the Calder Trophy

Kevin Wickersham

2017-03-13

Calgary’s 3M Line – Offensive Zone Starts and the Calder Trophy. What's making the NHL's hottest team tick right now            

 

Just how good has Calgary’s top line been? Usually, a high offensive zone start (OZ%) percentage indicates a player that excels on offense and is used primarily in that capacity, while low offensive zone start percentages are for players that are on the ice during faceoffs held predominantly outside their zone, fulfilling a more defensive role. 

 

But what if your defensive and neutral zone start workhorses are also your top scorers? There are some anomalies where this happens – Minnesota’s Mikko Koivu (34.6 OZ%) with 32 assists and 50 points (second and third on the team respectively) and Anaheim's Ryan Kesler (33.5 OZ%) second on the Ducks in goals (19) and assists (28). Calgary's 3M line – Mikael Backlund, Matt Tkachuk, and Michael Frolik take this to another level, leading the NHL’s hottest club in scoring while also topping the Flames in defensive zone starts. 

 

Let's consider the gravity of this. 

 

Often players who have high OZ percentages are considered “sheltered” as other teammates take the bulk of defensive and neutral zone starts allowing top scorers to face off mostly near the net at which they are shooting. Chicago, St. Louis, and Nashville employ this tactic liberally. Chicago in particular excels at this with Artemi Panarin (NHL-leader at 82.5 OZ%), Artem Anisimov (65.9 OZ%), and Patrick Kane (65.8 OZ%) put in sheltered positions that lend to high scoring totals, while low-scoring defensive specialists such as Marcus Kruger (29.2 OZ%) man higher-risk face-offs more near the Blackhawk net.

 

St. Louis follows a similar mold with top scorer Vladimir Tarasenko (65.7 OZ%) benefiting from the infrequent offensive zone starts of Kyle Brodziak (23.8 OZ%), Scottie Upshall (26.7 OZ%), and Ryan Reaves (29.2 OZ%). Likewise, Nashville’s unheralded Austin Watson (28.5 OZ% and a plus-13 rating) performs the same function, freeing up the more offensively-oriented Filip Forsberg (57.5 OZ%).

Calgary also shelters some key Flames in this way. Johnny Gaudreau (64.7 OZ%) and Sean Monahan (61.6 OZ%) are the team’s top two in offensive zone starts percentage and thriving on the club’s second line. Yet their first line, and second power play unit, of Backlund, Tkachuk, and Frolik collectively leads the team in points and their offensive zone start percentages are ridiculously low. Tkachuk at 34.3 OZ% has a comparable percentage to those of Kesler and Koivu. The remarkably versatile Backlund (35.4 OZ%), in the conversation for the Selke Trophy, and Frolik (37.3 OZ%) are also very low relative to their scoring numbers. Looking at the stats for all three:

 

 

G

A

PTS

P/GP

OZ%

Tkachuk

12

32

44

.69

34.3

📢 advertisement:

Backlund

21

27

48

.71

35.4

Frolik

15

26

41

.60

37.3

 

Individually, each M is enjoying a career high in points-per-game average and all also are approaching career-best scoring totals. While there are many factors that contribute to this, the infusion of Tkachuk on the line in late October, the rookie with a veteran’s two-way game, may have been utmost. Looking at Backlund’s and Frolik’s previous campaigns’ OZ% numbers bolsters the value of Tkachuk’s achievements as both currently have career lows.

As a line, the 3M has totaled 65 even-strength points over the course of the season, nearly three times that of the Flames’ next highest scoring line of Gaudreau, Monahan, and Ferland which has 24 points. Collectively, counting for their play on all lines they have manned this season, the three have a highly respectable 133 points. Their 24 points on the power play is also tied for the best among forward units on the squad.

With career highs in scoring and career lows in offensive zone start percentage across their first line, the Flames truly have something special on the ice that doesn’t enjoy the so-called shelter that many other top scorers do. They provide it. 

Although Tkachuk stands fifth in scoring among rookies behind Laine (32 G, 27 A, 54.7 OZ%) Matthews (31 G, 24 A, 62.9 OZ%), Marner (17 G, 37 A, 58.6 OZ%), and Nylander (18 G, 30 A, 52.8 OZ%) his overall game should provoke Calder Trophy discussion. When a rookie that plays nothing like a rookie helps create such impressive, top-line, two-way levels of production he deserves serious consideration as the top NHL rookie, and perhaps his linemate does too for the Selke Trophy.  

 

Follow me on Twitter @KWcrosscheck

 

 

2 Comments

  1. Jake Blumes 2017-03-13 at 16:32

    Hey, thanks for noticing. Dobber didn’t even give Tkachuk a mention or projection in the Guide and had the Flames out of the playoffs.

    • Dobber 2017-03-13 at 21:15

      To be fair, I did have Matt Tkachuk listed for 9 games, 1 goal, 3 points and 6 PIM as a projection for this year. I also listed him in the Prospect chart as 50% chance of making the team. I don’t know if other mags projected for him at all.
      A full write-up of Tkachuk was in the Fantasy Prospects Report and I try to avoid double-dipping on the write-ups between the two magazines.

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 20 - 15:04 CAR vs N.J
Apr 20 - 19:04 TOR vs OTT
Apr 20 - 22:04 VGK vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
VASILY PONOMAREV PIT
KYLE CONNOR WPG
JACKSON BLAKE CAR
ZACK BOLDUC STL
ROBERT THOMAS STL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
CALVIN PICKARD EDM
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK WPG
JORDAN BINNINGTON STL
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CHI Players
24.2 ILYA MIKHEYEV RYAN DONATO CONNOR BEDARD
21.0 JOE VELENO LANDON SLAGGERT LUKAS REICHEL
21.0 TEUVO TERAVAINEN FRANK NAZAR TYLER BERTUZZI

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson: End-of-Season Beginnings, Vibesgoaliebord

Elan and Brian express their interest in players on the verge of playing their first NHL games, make some playoff predictions with no promises, and do a vibes-based draft for goalies they are willing to commit to rostering for the entirety of the next NHL season.

Fantasy Hockey Life: X Gamers and Silly Season

Jesse and Victor talk about up and coming prospects Michael Hage, Berkly Catton, and Nick Lardis. We feature polls from NHL Rank King Mason Black.In the second half Jesse asks if hockey has become as crazy as basketball for late season volatility. Lastly we talk about fantasy playoff heroes Kiefer Sherwood, Dylan Holloway, and Drake […]

Keeping Karlsson: Gr8 V16es

Elan and Brian celebrate two legends with massive accomplishments today: Alex Ovechkin, the NHL’s new goal scoring record holder, and Ian F, the newly crowned KKUPFL Ultimate Champion and undisputed best fantasy hockey manager in the world. You decide which one matters more.

Fantasy Hockey Life: Tidy Commissioner Roundtable

Our TIDY commish team joins the show for a roundtable to look back on a thrilling season. Have a listen! Our show is part of the Dobber Podcast Network and sponsored by Fantrax.com. Email fantasyhockeylife@gmail.com and ask to join our free discord. Join our Patreon at Patreon.com/fantasyhockeylife for rankings, bonus podcasts, in-depth prospect reports with […]

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: