Ramblings: The Avalanche, Silfverberg, Getzlaf and more around the fantasy hockey world (May 15)
Dobber
2017-05-14
Ramblings: The Avalanche, Silfverberg, Getzlaf and more around the fantasy hockey world (May 15)
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I’ve seen a lot of Colorado Avalanche fans who are truly sour over losing the first (and hell – second) overall pick in the lottery. And rightfully so – if you’re a fan of the team with the fewest points coming off a horrible seasons, you should be pissed if they don’t even get a Top 2 pick. But when I see things like “the worst team should get the first overall pick, period” – I get annoyed. To me, the worst team in the NHL did get the top pick. The Devils are the worst. They may have an answer to MacKinnon with Hall, and Rantanen with Zacha – but they don’t have an answer for Landeskog or Duchene. Or Barrie. Or even Johnson. The Devils can’t solve their problems by having a couple of injured players return, plus sign two bottom-six forwards and No.3 defenseman. Because that’s all the Avs need. They’ll get healthy, and with three smart free agent signings they’re back in business. Oh, and they probably need a different coach. But man, the Devils…what a horrible team. Taylor Hall is a start. Goaltending is fine. Pavel Zacha looks like he’ll eventually meet expectations. But the bottom really drops out quickly. Is Damon Severson going to get it together consistently? He’s still a question mark. No – give the Devils this pick for sure.
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Stop saying Jakob Silfverberg will be left exposed by the Ducks. Team brass loves Ryan Getzlaf first. Then John Gibson. Then Cam Fowler. Then Hampus Lindholm. Then Silfverberg. That’s the order. They’d rather lose anyone else – even Corey Perry (can’t be exposed anyway due to his NMC) or Sami Vatanen – before Silfverberg. I’ve seen from several sources that he’s going to be exposed, with the logic that the Ducks would never expose Vatanen. Well, they would. I’m sure they’ll try to get rid of Bieksa’s no-move contract somehow and avoid it, but failing that – they’ll lose Vatanen. I generally subscribe the idea that goalies are the most important on the team and toughest to fill, followed by defensemen. Which means forwards are the “least” valuable. So that goes to show you just how important Silf is in real hockey – defensively, offensively, and of course in clutch situations.
With the goal last night, Silfverberg has 13 goals and 36 points in his last 36 playoff games.
It’s interesting to see Brandon Montour, time and again, seeing more ice time than Shea Theodore. He was drafted a year later as a 20-year-old, is a little smaller, drafted later (55th overall versus 26th overall in their respective years) and has half the career regular season games under his belt. I may to re-evaluate Theodore’s standing in the grand scheme of things. Montour hadn’t played his first NHL game until December 29th so up until then he was just this promising, high-scoring AHL defenseman who was buried behind a deep blue line. Theodore had played 39 games before Montour even saw NHL ice. Theodore still holds the edge in PP ice time, but I think Montour is eating into that. Randy Carlyle loves Montour and Randy Carlyle, after this postseason, is obviously not going anywhere. So we fantasy owners must also love Montour. I’m not quite ready to love him over Theodore, but I’m starting to get swayed.
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Ryan Getzlaf has 52 points in his last 38 regular season and playoff games. Full-on beast mode down the stretch and he’s bulldozing through the postseason. This team is nothing without him. During that stretch the Ducks are 26-10-3 (Getzlaf missed a game).
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Ryan Johansen on Ryan Kesler after the game:
“He just blows my mind. I don’t know what’s going through his head out there. His family and friends watching him play, I don’t know how you can cheer for a guy like that. It just doesn’t make sense how he plays the game. I’m just trying to go out there and play hockey and it sucks when you have to pull a stick out of your groin every shift.”
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There have been 25 overtime games this year, just three off the record set in 1993 when John Leclair scored a million OT goals I think. That was an example of a Montreal team that really wasn’t all that strong, but had fairly lucky playoff matchups and they snuck out a Cup with their clutch goal-scoring. Now, by no means is Pittsburgh a “lucky playoff matchup” for the Sens. In fact, that team is the best of the best. But they didn’t take Ottawa seriously and if they get put in a hole that they can’t dig out of, then Ottawa could shock the hockey world. It would be cool if they do it in a year that sees the OT record broken – one that was set in a year in which another team surprised the hockey world. Both Canadian teams, at that.
It would also be awesome if Ottawa took Canada out of its drought. Ottawa. I mean…the Oilers have been building this mighty team for the future, and damn if the Leafs haven’t done well at the same thing. And the Habs have the best goalie in the world. But Ottawa gets it done. Ottawa!
Is J-G Pageau this year’s John Druce? Jean-Gabriel Druce? I can’t remember if I did that joke for Pageau yet…
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The Grand Rapids Griffins are already in the AHL semi-finals, but it’s two young studs who are really making their mark. Tyler Bertuzzi has 10 points in eight games and will make a strong case for getting on Detroit’s roster in the fall. Evgeny Svechnikov has nine points in eight games and will also have a real shot in the fall. Both of these players have been so impressive since being drafted. Really rising above expectations year after year. I’m not sure if you can count on either for a full season in the NHL next year, but I’d put good money on 30 or 40 games each. And then full time the following year.
DobberProspects has now profiled Vadim Shipachyov, if you want more background on the second player to ever belong to the Vegas Golden Knights. Check it out here.
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If you think the Capitals will lose Philippe Grubauer to expansion, then I think Pheonix Copley is making a case for the backup job for next year. Copley has been outstanding for Hershey in the postseason. On Tuesday they could put out the Providence Bruins to go to the semi-finals. Copley has stopped 263 of 282 shots for a 0.933 SV% (nine games) when it matters most. Easily the best performance of any goalie playing at least five games.
EDIT: Copley is out for the series with an injury, and Vitek Vanecek played the last game. Stick tap to Pat Quinn, DobberProspects Washington scout for the update in the comments
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If you missed this goal check it out, it’s really cool – Gibson lost the puck so badly that James Neal just took his time. The only good angle here is the original one at the start. Gibson was still facing forward while Neal is stickhandling right behind him…
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Ducks are going to lose one of Silfverberg, Rakell, Vatanen, or Manson. I agree it will be Vatanen, but really the 7-3-1 model doesn’t work that well for them because they really only have 5 F worth protecting.
There is literally no way in hell Rakell would be exposed to the expansion draft, not on the Ducks roster, not on any other team’s roster.
Why would you expose a young 30 goal guy? Who you just signed to a big contract extension that makes literally no sense.
Yeah the 7-3-1 model doesn’t work, but it has to because the 5 forwards are way too important. So they just waste protection spots on guys like Vermette and Cogs
I don’t mind that NJ gets first pick but surely the Canucks are the worst team? Don’t even have a Hall and without Miller would have given COL a run for their money.
That’s a reasonable discussion! But some people putting Colorado in that category is just wrong. VAN and NJD are the two worst
Losing Miller would have made little difference, any goalie Vancouver put in net posted similiar #’s as Vancouver can ice a solid D. Edler, Tanev, Gubranson; missed 52 games, replaced by Tryamkin, Hutton, Stetcher & Sbisa. The fact Vancouver was as bad as they were is some what surprising as they had sufficient personal to ice 3 semi decent scoring lines, Colordao couldn’t even ice 2. Sedin, Sedin, Hansen. Baertschi, Horvat, Burrows. Granlund, Sutter, Eriksson.
Vancouver finished in the standings right where I assumed they would 13th in the West but I didn’t expect them to only get 69 points. I had the standings much tighter by points from the wildcards thru 14th.
The reason Colorado & NJ are as bad as they are has a huge portion to do with their D’s but Colorado is more than just a few bottom 6 pieces & a #3 Dman away from bouncing back.
Colorado will be adding a ton of youth next year & youth may be exciting to watch but rarely wins games consistently. Colorado only had 2 injuries of significance last season, Johnson missed 36 games, Zadarov 26 but was only 21 when the season started so not sure much was expected of him & the next was Landeskog missing 10. I assume almost all players are going to miss 5 to 7.
I have posted this here many times & will yet again as the same blogs essentially keep appearing. Bieksa will waive his NMC or be bought out & Vatanen will be traded before the expansion draft. Anh will protect 7 F, 3 D & 1G. There will be zero issues about losing Silfvergberg or Vatanen. Vatanen will return a 7th keeper at forward & futures, a draft pick, picks, a prospect or some combination there of.
Moving Vatanen will be a walk in the park. Great contract, age & term & there are teams in the NHL that don’t have 3 protectors at D come expansion or would gladly drop their current #3 protector for Vatanen.
The problem with buying Bieksa out is that there’s no cap relief. Because he’s over 35, his $4 million for next season will still count for the Ducks.
The Ducks only have $2.3 million in cap space and will have to sign a few players (not big names, but a backup goalie and a 13th forward). I’m not sure if they can afford to have $4 million in cap space being used on a player not on the team.
Bieksa signed his contract at 34, the buy out due to age is if signed at 35 or older.
Regardless this is an expansion draft protection issue. Any cap issues caused will be addressed in due course.
I also think Bieksa will willingly waive.
Sorry for the delay, but I used capfriendly for the info. (Found here: https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_calculator/kevin-bieksa)
Kevin Bieksa is signed to a 35-plus contract, and therefore does not receive a cap hit benefit from this buyout.
Bieksa signed July 2, 2016. He turned 35 about two years before that.
All good Tom.
Bieksa signed his current 2 year deal on July 1st 2015. He was born on June 16th 1981. That means that contract was signed just after he turned 34. Perhaps as it didn’t take effect until the 2016-17 season it’s considered an over 35 contract? Regardless it’s not the buyout specificly that’s the issue but his NMC.
That said your point is valid about it’s potential impact on the cap then if it carries over at full value. It would be in Bieksa’s best interest to waive his NMC but if not I see no way Anaheim can’t be forced to buy him out regardless.
It would help if the NHL was far more forthcoming with this data. They don’t think we care but how can you participate in fantasy leagues in a cap world & not be concerned about all the facts. They come into play & it would be nice to be able to access proper data.
I’ll extrapolate it out further for you as well. When Vatanen is moved that will free some to all of his cap hit. 4.875. Stoner will be bought out, freeing up another 2.2, the cap is rising by close to 3 mil. Never mind Bieksa. I assume he will waive, go unclaimed altering nothing for Anaheim in cap issues as it relates to him. With the 2.2 they have now, 2.2 buying out Stoner, 4,875 trading Vatanen & 3 mil in cap increase that’s 13.5 in space to add 3 players. That doesn’t include Despres being potential placed on LTIR. That’s another 3.7 potentially available next season.
Rumors circulated that Despres has skated but as he missed 65 consecutive games on LTIR is expansion draft exempt. Having missed 131 games over the last 2 seasons it appears his career is most likely over. If not to Anh’s benefit potentially either him returning to play at some pount or the LTIR his injury will provide.
I assume Anh will lose 1 of Vermette, Kerdiles or Sorenson in expansion.
Anyone who is upset that Colorado didn’t win the lottery under the new lottery rules isn’t very bright. A 17.9% chance of picking 1st isn’t very good odds. That means there is a 82.1% chance your not picking 1st. I’ll take those odds. The 82.1% means that your not picking 1st at least 7 times out of 10. There is absolutely no point finishing dead last willingly any longer in the NHL. The new odds make tanking it a thing of the past as there simply is very little chance that finishing last will reward you in anyway.
Making plays a Bantam aged Rep Dman wouldn’t make like trying to skate out in front of your net under pressure like Theodore did in game #1 on Nas’s 1st goal will get your ass stapled to the bench & cause your coach serious concerns about trusting you. I’m surprised Bieksa didn’t replace Theodore after his gaff, all indications are he’s fit to return.
Just an FYI Copley was injured on Friday May 12 and I think is out for the post season but right now they are just saying the series. The latest win (3-2 in OT) on Sunday was won by Vitek Vanecek stopping 29 of 31 shots. Caps have a pretty good goalie pipeline right now
Thanks! I noticed he hadn’t played all the games, had missed one, but hadn’t realized it was the latest one and it was due to injury. Great info