Ramblings: Predators Close In on Final, Playoff Surprise Players (May 21)
Ian Gooding
2017-05-21
Predators Close In on Final, Playoff Surprise Players
Pontus Aberg’s first goal of the playoffs turned out to be the game-winning goal for the Predators, who take a 3-2 series lead over the Ducks with their 3-1 win on Saturday.
In spite of the goal, Aberg played just 11 minutes of this game, which is right around his normal icetime during the playoffs (when he has even been in the lineup). But with great speed and a solid scoring touch (31 goals in 56 AHL games this season), Aberg demonstrates the kind of depth that this fast-paced Predator team has. A Predator team that is now just one win away from its first Stanley Cup Final.
For more on Aberg, here’s his Dobber Prospects profile. He’s the seventh-ranked prospect on the Predators.
Acute compartment syndrome often develops over time after impact; it can be limb- and life-threatening. Again, Johansen is doing well now.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) May 20, 2017
Terrifying stuff about Ryan Johansen for sure, especially with what we saw happen to Craig Cunningham. Even though the original timetable for his recovery was 2-3 months, this is the kind of injury in which the Preds should err on the side of caution. So you’ll want to keep an eye on his status before training camp. More importantly, let’s hope for the best regarding Johansen’s overall health.
Took him a while but he made it @KevinFiala22 pic.twitter.com/N5NV3rSBDd
— Ryan Johansen (@RyanJohansen19) May 21, 2017
The player most impacted by the absence of Johansen and Mike Fisher up the middle was Colton Sissons, who recorded a power-play assist late in the second period on Colin Wilson’s goal. Sissons saw 19:24 of icetime in Game 5, which included 2:07 of power-play time. Sissons entered the game with no points in the seven games before Saturday. But he seems capable of handling the load based on his play earlier in the playoffs (six points in his first seven playoff games).
Even though he was held without a point, Calle Jarnkrok also took on more responsibility with 19 minutes of icetime and 1:42 of power-play time.
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The Ducks also had their share of storylines for this game. The most significant from a hockey standpoint saw John Gibson leave the game after first period with a lower-body injury. Jonathan Bernier was okay at best, stopping 16 of 18 shots over the final two periods. Take this for what it’s worth, but Gibson says he will be able to play in Game 6. With the Ducks’ season hanging in the balance, it would take a fairly serious injury for Gibson not to start on Monday night.
Rickard Rakell also missed this game for the Ducks with a lower-body injury. The Ducks lean much more heavily on their top forwards that the Predators do, so an absence of a top-6 forward could impact the Ducks more. Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, and Jakob Silfverberg all played at least 20 minutes in Game 5.
Earlier in the day, Getzlaf was fined for the use of a homophobic slur. Andrew Shaw was suspended one game for a similar offense during last season’s playoffs, while Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Pillar was suspended two games earlier this week. So does Getzlaf get away without a suspension because of the importance of this game and his importance to his team? I thought the precedent had already been set. Maybe the wheel of justice also applies to homophobic slurs.
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If you don’t normally watch hockey in the morning, then you might have missed a doozie with the Canada/Russia semifinal game at the World Hockey Championship. Russia scored two goals in the second period to take a 2-0 lead. But Canada stormed back in the third period with three goals, including Nathan MacKinnon’s game-tying goal and Ryan O’Reilly’s eventual game-winning goal with three minutes left in regulation. Canada will play Sweden for the gold medal on Sunday.
O’Reilly stood out to me in this game as a two-way force. I wonder how much Colorado’s sudden plunge in the standings has to do with his departure.
On the other hand, a few Avalanche players are doing just fine at the moment.
Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie and Calvin Pickard have won more games in the last two weeks than in the previous three months.
— Darren Haynes (@DarrenWHaynes) May 20, 2017
This night-and-day success is the most apparent for MacKinnon. He currently leads all Canadian scorers with 14 points (6g-8a) in just 9 games. Over March and April he scored 12 points (4g-8a), but it took him 21 games to do it. Maybe it’s the talent around him on Team Canada, but this is why you shouldn’t give up on him so quickly. Especially since Colorado has nowhere to go but up over the next few seasons. And just remember: He’s still only 21.
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Which player's performance in the playoffs has surprised you the most?
— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) May 19, 2017
The big stage of the playoffs can make a player stand out when he would normally go unnoticed. For a young player like Matt Murray, it can be a preview of what’s to come. His teammate Jake Guentzel appears to be on a similar path to Murray, given Guentzel’s ability to click with Sidney Crosby.
But do we make of veterans that appear to be trending downward, at least in fantasy leagues? Is the playoff success also a positive sign for next season, or should it be brushed off as a short-term run of success? We tend not to give veterans past a certain age the benefit of the doubt. Should we?
You don’t get to say that you don’t like Rinne for fantasy purposes, yet also state that you believed that the Predators could make it this far. You would be contradicting yourself, because teams do not make it this far into the playoffs without great goaltending. And Rinne has given the Preds exactly that, with a playoff-leading 1.62 goals-against average and .942 save percentage. The truth is, though, that Rinne might be better than you give him credit for.
Among goalies that have played at least 420 minutes in 2016-17 (64 goalies), Rinne finished 19th in save percentage and 20th in goals-against average. If you decrease the sample size to allow for goalies that played at least 40 games (32 goalies), Rinne finished 12th in both goals-against average and save percentage. To put it another way, in 12-team leagues you could do better than Rinne for a G1, but you should be very happy if he is your G2. The 34-year-old Rinne’s 2.42 GAA and .918 SV% in 2016-17 were actually improvements from his 2015-16 totals (2.48 GAA, .908 SV%).
At least Rinne was worth retaining on your fantasy team for the entire season. A goalie with a goals-against average above 3.00 should clearly be on your “Do Not Own” list, while his .909 save percentage was only marginally better. But to Mike Clifford’s point that goals-against average is a team stat and save percentage is more of a reflection on the goalie’s ability, perhaps it was safe to assume that the Pens would be okay with Fleury between the pipes for the start of the playoffs. That should also mean Fleury is a better goalie than what we saw during the regular season.
Matt Murray has since taken over in net, so it’s possible that we’ve seen the last of Fleury in a game for the Penguins with the expansion draft looming. It’s easy to assume he’ll be heading to Vegas, but he could land elsewhere. Not to put the cart before the horse, but that could place him as a lower-tier starting goalie. Could Fleury’s playoff performance be enough for Vegas to lock him in as the goalie they build their team around?
Something that’s not mentioned enough is that Fleury could very well be back in Pittsburgh next season, as he still has two years left on his contract. But even though Fleury comes with a $5.75 million cap hit, this job now belongs to Murray. Fleury would simply be an expensive backup whose fantasy value would be minimal, while his fantasy value in non-auction cap leagues would be virtually nil.
In last Sunday’s Ramblings, I discussed why I think Ryan is a potential comeback player for 2016-17. To add to that, articles like this one on the Golden Knights expansion draft (which I think is a very interesting and thorough read, by the way) have Ryan as a potential Knights claim. Salary (five more years at $7.25 million) might be a reason.
Aside from Erik Karlsson, has there been any one player more instrumental to the Senators’ success than Ryan? His 14 points in 16 games is second on the Sens in playoff scoring. You could make an argument that Nashville and Pittsburgh would go deep into the playoffs, which would make Rinne and Fleury logical adds to your playoff pool. But Ryan? Very few assumed he would be a top-10 playoff scorer, let alone that the Senators would be two wins away from a Stanley Cup Final appearance.
That’s part of the fun with the Stanley Cup playoffs, though. There’s always a surprise. Congratulations if you picked Ryan in your playoff pool at the start of the playoffs, as you may have just won. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews owners? Not so much.
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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.
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Ian.
Can you elaborate on how this may happen?
“Something that’s not mentioned enough is that Fleury could very well be back in Pittsburgh next season, as he still has two years left on his contract.”
I have several hypothesis although most seem highly unlikely, curious to hear yours.
Is it guaranteed that Fleury is picked in the expansion draft? No. With teams only able to protect one goalie, there will be plenty of goalies available. There may be two that they find more suitable.
Is it guaranteed that Fleury is traded this offseason? No. What if the Penguins ask for too much? Or teams have already made their goaltending plans.
People seem to think that it’s a slam dunk that Fleury will play somewhere else next season, likely Vegas. He probably will play elsewhere, but I’m just saying it’s not 100%. Remember when the Canucks tried to trade Roberto Luongo and couldn’t?
Thanks Ian.
Anythings possible & lets hypothesize further or in a different direction. What if Fleury just refuses to waive his NMC? Will Pittsburgh then not look to trade him to 1 of the 18 teams he can’t refuse a trade to on his modified NTC? What if none of those 18 want him? Buy him out?
It’s a problem & 1 Pittsburgh has to find a solution to as I don’t see them moving Murray under any scenario.
Has Pittsburgh made a deal with Vegas to select him should he agree to waive his NMC sending additional compensation to them to do so? Hell If I’m Vegas I’d be happy doing so but I would certainly leverage potentially selecting a different player like which 1 of Rust or Hornqvist which ever 1 isn’t protected. I just see no scenario where he stays in Pittsburgh though. Not the least of which is they need his cap hit removed.
With their #3 & 4 C’s UFA’s, Schultz & Dumoulin RFA’s & needing to replace other Dman lost as UFA’s & or in expansion; Cole?, there is not enough money to accommodate MAF’s 5.75 with Murray’s contract jumping to 3.75 next season.
True, and if the Pens wanted to clear the cap space badly enough they could buy him out if they are out of options. I don’t think they would need to do that, but it’s another possibility (unless I’m missing something with the intricacies of the salary cap).
We don’t know for sure what’s going to happen. What about the scenario where the Penguins believe they have a legitimate shot next season but they also believe that Murray is too injury-prone to rely on for both the regular season and the playoffs (like they did this season). They could easily find a cheaper backup, but they may decide Fleury is better than any other option because of his playoff experience, relationship with the guys, and so on.
Again, not saying the Pens will keep Fleury, and I’m not saying it’s a great choice if they decided to. I’m just saying it could either be a planned or an unplanned option, but one of many options, like the ones both of us have listed.
I don’t disagree but it seems incredibly unlikely to me. Pittsburgh may have a deal with Vegas, they may not, to select Fluery. Would I select Fleury if available? Depends on who else Pittsburgh has available or what they might pay me to do so.
If he were available & the best asset available in Pittsburgh Vegas will need a starter to mentor the 2 or 3 very young goalies they select, Korpisalo, Grubauer; if not traded before the expansion draft, sure. Although which player out of Hornqvist or Rust will be exposed. Only room for 1 of those players as a protector. I might lean to either of those players instead of Fleury better yet the motivation provided to select Murray for Pittsburgh is 1 of those players.
Karl.
Teams have to have their protected rosters in on June 17th. Vegas it’s selection list in June 19th & the NHL will announce those selections on June 21st. That gives us 3 weeks & change. I’ll try to touch on 2 teams a day. A little back ground on my assumptions. I think Vegas will take the best assets either in short or long term value & this can vary significantly by team. What I mean by that is Vegas may select an asset that has no long term value to them by that player today but if that player can be flipped in trade at this seasons draft, post expansion draft this summer, pre trade deadline next season or in the next few seasons returning a solid pick or prospect I assume they will do just that regardless of that players salary or cap hit.
Anaheim.
They have way to many Dman to protect & will have to get semi creative to resolve this. 1st lets eliminate Despres. As he has missed the last 65 consecutive games of the 2016-17 season & is on LTIR he is exempt from the expansion draft. Interestingly it was posted last week he skated recently! I assume his career is over but who’s knows. This will be to Anh’s benefit 1 way or the other. He returns or his cap hit is removed on LTIR & mainly paid under insurance regardless.
Bieksa has an NMC & this is problematic. I assume he will be asked to waive it & if not, I see no choice but for Anh to buy him out. I assume he will waive & most likely go unselected regardless, at 35 with only 1 season remaining to UFA status I think Vegas has better options from Anh, nor would his return at next seasons trade deadline or before necessarily justify Vegas selecting him but 1 can never say never.
Anh is locked into having to protect 7F, 3D & a G due to the quality of 5 of those forwards, several with NMC’s on their own. Getzlaf; NMC, Perry; NMC, Kelser; NMC, Silfverberg & Rackell. That leaves room for 2 forwards on their protected list. Let’s come back to that.
I see Anh protecting Fowler; will be resigned on July 1st for 8 years at 6.5 to 7 mil per, possibly nominally more, Lindholm & Manson. That leaves Bieksa, see my assumptions above & Vatanen. I believe Vatanen will be traded for a good young forward & it’s not essential he be expansion draft exempt but if so great. Numerous teams will happily bid, he has a great contract & term, 4.875 for 3 more years. There will be at least 8 teams bidding pre expansion draft & the return substantial in both a player, pick & or prospects. Theodore & Montour are expansion draft exempt & can combined easily replace Vatanen’s role & minutes. There is no Manson currently in Anh’ system so moving him would shock me.
The forward acquired in trade would be protected if not expansion draft exempt. If he is then the final 2 keepers at forward for me would be, Kase & Kerdiles. Kerdiles exposed if the forward acquired in trade eats up a protector spot. That leaves Cogliano, Vermette, Sorenson & potentially 1 of Kerdiles or Kase. Anyone else of consequence is expansion draft exempt. Ritchie, Kossila, etc.
Really at this point Anh could take 2 protectors back at forward as losing anyone of those players although unfortunate isn’t back breaking. Perhaps Anh chooses to keep Cogliano & Vermette, both with 1 season remaining to UFA status again I don’t really care.
Love thus insight! Its interesting how sulf and vatanens priirit has flip flopped- i totally agree on that tho. Its interwsting how much rihgs changer ovwr a seawon…
Great stuff Striker! If you haven’t already, you should do this in the forums as well so more people can enjoy. +1 The Comish
I haven’t been to the forums. I post here some but primarily debate & discuss hockey on Spectors rumor chat board.
One team that could really use Vatanen in New Jersey. Even the Avs have a better blueline right now. The thing is, what would they trade to the Ducks? Would a good offensive defenceman like Vatanen be worth giving up their #1 pick in what’s been deemed a weak draft?