Predators Push Back, Potential Vegas Goalies

The Nashville Predators needed a win in front of their home fans in Game 3, and they got one. And as you read this, the party in Nashville is probably still going… likely into Game 4 on Monday as well.

The Penguins opened the scoring in the first period with Jake Guentzel finding the twine yet again, this one his league-leading 13^th goal of the playoffs. It’s hard to believe he was considered a potential healthy scratch candidate for Game 1, but he has been a Predator killer with four goals so far in the series. He continues to write his playoff legend and boost his fantasy value in the process. Don’t expect him to fly under the radar in next season’s fantasy drafts now that everyone has been watching him during the playoffs.

After the Guentzel goal, the Predators scored five unanswered, including the game-tying and eventual game-winning goals less than a minute apart and both glove side on Matt Murray. The Preds scored three more to keep the country music capital of the world loud through the rest of the game.

Roman Josi was the scoring star for the Predators, scoring the Preds’ first goal and assisting on the other two goals in the second period. He leads all defensemen with six playoff goals, and he is the first defenseman with three points in a Stanley Cup Final game since 2010. He and his blueline mates were also able to hold both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin without a shot in this game.

This game was also about the Predators who broke slumps. James Neal’s goal was his first since Game 2 of the Anaheim series (six games without a goal), while Craig Smith also broke a six-game goalless slump, although this goal was his first of the playoffs as he missed almost all of the middle two rounds. Mattias Ekholm also scored, which would be his first goal in 43 games (dating all the way back to February 19!)

This won’t matter much to Preds’ fans at the moment, but there are still some slumping Nashville players. Mike Fisher still has yet to score a goal during the playoffs, though he recorded three assists in the two games in Pittsburgh. Potential expansion draft target Calle Jarnkrok has not scored in nine games. But most surprisingly, breakout performer Viktor Arvidsson has not scored a goal since Game 4 of the Chicago series – a span of 15 games.

It’s clear that Murray wasn’t at the top of his game on Saturday. But the possession stats indicate that Nashville was due for a victory and at the very least capable of making this into a series.
 

Pittsburgh possession

Game 1 42%
Game 2 38%
Game 3 40%

Only change is that Matt Murray isn't a .972 goalie tonight

— Ryan Wilson (@GunnerStaal) June 4, 2017

One other note: Did anyone know who Frederick Gaudreau was entering this series? The Dobber Prospects team did, that’s who. Gaudreau is mentioned in the Prospects Report, which you should grab a copy of if you haven’t already. Gaudreau (no relation to Johnny and not much heavier) now has two goals in the three Stanley Cup Final games after entering the lineup following Ryan Johansen’s injury.

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During the Wednesday Ramblings I created my own mock draft for the Vegas Golden Knights using the tool at Cap Friendly. Since that time I’ve noticed that TSN has created its own expansion draft simulator. As well, Craig Button and Frank Seravalli of TSN have created their own mock draft teams.

As expected, there was a considerable amount of difference between each team on forward and defense. But I was surprised that the three goalies I picked exactly matched both Button’s and Seravalli’s teams. What’s that saying about the blind squirrel finding a nut?

Out of curiosity, I put those three goalies to the test in my poll question this week:
 

Which goalie would make the best starter for the Vegas Golden Knights next season?

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) June 3, 2017

I’m not suggesting that I’m right or that the TSN writers are right, nor am I gloating that I was able to match these experts (I completed my team before I saw theirs though). Maybe the Golden Knights go in a completely different direction in net with someone like Joonas Korpisalo or World Hockey Championship star Calvin Pickard. You just never know.
 

As of June 1, over 70K #Vegas Expansion teams have been drafted using our tool. Here are the current top 5 players drafted at each position. pic.twitter.com/jPwkKgdB0D

— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) June 2, 2017

Marc-Andre Fleury

I’ve mentioned before that I don’t think Fleury playing for another team next season is guaranteed. Still, he will most likely be on the move this offseason, with rumors floating around that Pittsburgh and Vegas have already worked out a deal. No doubt there are other teams that would be interested in Fleury as a possibility to improve their goaltending situation. As the runaway winner of this poll question, it’s obvious that he’s viewed as the most established, lowest risk goalie of the three.

Vegas would give Fleury the chance to have a better season than the one he just had in Pittsburgh (18-10-7, 3.02 GAA, .909 SV%). He would have the opportunity to earn more wins as a clear starter, and his ratios can’t get much worse than they were in 2016-17. However, the downside is that his ceiling is lower than what it was in Pittsburgh during his time as the starter. And if he falters in Vegas, then one of the younger goalies could push him for playing time and ultimately make him expendable.

So why wasn’t Fleury one of the most highly drafted goalies on Cap Friendly? Simple. All players with no-movement clauses are by default checked off as protected. Many who went with the default setting “quick protect” feature likely forgot about this.

Philipp Grubauer

Of the league’s goalies with the top ten save percentages this season (minimum 420 minutes), four played in fewer than 35 games: Aaron Dell, Jimmy Howard, Scott Darling, and Grubauer. Howard’s massive contract should make him untouchable, while Dell has played in only 20 career NHL games. Darling should now be the starter in Carolina. So add in his win percentage and Grubauer is the statistically best unprotected goaltender of the group.

But how much of that was him, and how much of that was the President’s Trophy-winning team in front of him? A strong save percentage and goals-against average (2.04) are both good signs. But it would remain to be seen how he would adjust to playing for a team that will probably finish at the opposite end of the standings. Grubauer has never played more than 24 games in a season, which was his total from the past season. So there’s still an unknown element to his game.

Assuming that the Knights choose Fleury, would playing backup on the Knights be any better than playing backup on the Capitals? It could at least result in more games, as Fleury is not as stable a starting goalie as Braden Holtby. Grubauer would likely be facing more than the 27.75 shots per 60 minutes that he faced this past season.

Antti Raanta

Henrik Lundqvist may have the Rangers’ starting goalie job until he’s 39, which is when his contract runs out. Will the Rangers have to push him out the door by then, and how many solid young goalies will slip through the organization in the meantime? I say this because Raanta could follow a similar path to Cam Talbot.

2013-14 to 2014-15 seasons (Talbot’s two as a Ranger)

2015-16 to 2016-17 seasons (Raanta’s two as a Ranger)

Granted, Lundqvist played double the number of games of his backups over each of these two-season stretches. But aside from it telling you that Lundqvist is no longer elite (particularly over the last two seasons), it also tells you that both Talbot and Raanta deserved more starts than they received. Perhaps Raanta will receive that opportunity for more starts in Vegas, should the Golden Knights look in his direction.

It’s also possible that the Knights consider adding someone like Jesper Fast or Michael Grabner instead if they decide two NHL-level goalies is enough. But keep in mind that the Knights must select at least three goalies during the expansion draft.

All in all, the value of these three goalies is currently up in the air, but we will know a lot more by the end of the month.

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On a note related to the last section, Lundqvist has a Grade 1 MCL sprain from the World Championship and will need 4-6 weeks to recover (NHL.com).

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.