Where Ekholm Stands, Boughner Expected in Florida, plus more…

In my Wednesday Ramblings, I predicted that the Predators would win Game 6 at home, so I’m going to stick to that prediction. This Stanley Cup Final has seen the home team win each game, and the Predators are 9-1 at home. We know that Pekka Rinne has been a much different goalie at home (1.44 GAA, .949 SV%) than on the road (2.58 GAA, .905 SV%) during these playoffs, particularly during the Stanley Cup Final. Obviously his job will be a little easier if Ryan Ellis is in the lineup for Game 6.

I also picked the Penguins to win in seven games, so I will also stick with that. Rinne can’t be that bad in Pittsburgh for a fourth game, can he? Rinne’s poor play at the PPG Arena actually started before this series, as his goals-against average over six lifetime games there is over 5.00. Even if his play improves during a Game 7, you’d have to think that Crosby and company will bring their A game just as they did during Game 5.

Even though the hockey in the series hasn’t always been superb, there is a level of intensity to this series that I haven’t seen since the 2011 Canucks/Bruins battle. There’s nothing like a little bad blood to keep fans engaged. Especially when it’s the most notable names of each team at each other in Sidney Crosby and P.K. Subban.

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I couldn’t think of a poll question this week. But Fantasy Hockey Polls told me I could use theirs if I ever needed one.
 

Player Battle Royal: Which defensemen are you drafting the highest next season? H2H, standard categories, deep rosters. #fantasyhockey

— Fantasy Hockey Polls (@NHLfantasypolls) May 30, 2017

These players aren’t as top drawer as many of the other players polled by this account. But I thought this was a particularly interesting question, since Mattias Ekholm was voted as the winner. Ekholm scored just three goals all year and broke a 43-game goalless drought with his goal last Saturday. So could there be a recency bias here? Or is Ekholm’s playoff pace (11 points in 21 games) a sign that he can be a 40-point defenseman?

The question assumed H2H, standard categories, and deep rosters. So I will use the categories of goals, assists, plus/minus, power-play points, shots on goal, hits, and blocked shots to rank Ekholm, Nikita Zaitsev, Matt Dumba, and Jaccob Slavin.

I’ll compare them using the Compare-A-Player tool on Frozen Pool for the 2016-17 season. All four are young defensemen, and Zaitsev was in his first NHL season last season, so I’ll only use one season to keep it simple. Three of the four played 82 games last season, while Dumba played just 75, which I will take into account if a tiebreaker is needed.

So as we would do in a roto league, I’ll award points based on standing in each category: 4 to the best performer down to 1 for the worst performer. Here’s what it would look like.

So not only was Ekholm not the top fantasy performer out of that group, but he actually finished dead last out of this group. I realize that we shouldn’t just evaluate a player over one season, so we need take into account Ekholm’s 35 points from 2015-16. But I’m thinking that might move Ekholm up to third at best among these defenseman. So I will conclude that he would not have received my vote.

So if you’re looking for a third or fourth defenseman during your fantasy draft, Ekholm is a recognizable name because of his fine play during the Stanley Cup Final. But I’d be willing to bet that there are other defensemen out there that will do more for your fantasy squad.

We’ve seen only one season from Zaitsev. There could be more first unit power-play time for the up-and-coming Leafs, which could provide tremendous value. 

You may recall that Slavin was a force down the stretch for fantasy teams, scoring 13 points with a plus-12 during March. Combine that with an icetime average of over 23 minutes and the Hurricanes have a 23-year-old defenseman with a bright future.

Dumba’s season stacks up as the best one here. While Slavin has the look of a top-4 defenseman, Dumba has more upside as an offensive contributor. In the all-important power play category, Dumba clearly has the edge over Slavin. The Canes have a defense with lots of upside, and it will be difficult for Slavin to unseat Justin Faulk while fending off Noah Hanifin for top power-play duty.

You’ll will probably want to hold off on declaring Dumba the winner, though. His fantasy value could change if he is traded or selected by Vegas. Michael Russo of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune believes that Dumba will get moved, given that he has the greatest potential return and the Wild won’t want to lose him for nothing.

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Here’s Elliotte Friedman’s 30 Thoughts for the week, which includes some names that could be traded or asked to waive their no-trade or no-movement clauses. Dumba is also mentioned in here, by the way.

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Bob Boughner is expected to be named the new head coach of the Florida Panthers, according to Bob McKenzie.
 

FLA expected to announce on Monday that Bob Boughner is the Panthers' new head coach.

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) June 10, 2017

Boughner is a former defenseman who most recently coached the defense in San Jose over the past two seasons. Keep in mind that those two seasons have been by far the best of Brent Burns’ career (back-to-back 70-point seasons). So by being in charge of the defense, he has been instrumental to Burns’ recent success.

This article from the Miami Herald mentioned that Boughner knows Aaron Ekblad well. Ekblad was a frustrating player to own last season with just 21 points and a minus-23 rating in 68 games. Yet strangely enough, Ekblad was tied for third among defensemen with 225 shots on goal. So you were patiently waiting for him to bump the slump, yet it didn’t happen. I’m not saying Ekblad will suddenly morph into Burns, but he could be in line for a major turnaround with Boughner’s guidance.

If nothing else, the Panthers will be more stable in 2017-18. Last season’s team was marred not only by injuries, but also the internal battle between the analytics believers and the old-school hockey types that led to the controversial firing of Gerard Gallant. With Dale Tallon back running the show and possibly a bright young coach in Boughner, the Panthers should be in line for a better season.  

With the Boughner hiring, the coaching dominos will continue to fall. Also mentioned in the Miami Herald article was the fact that Phil Housley is believed to be who the Sabres have in mind as their new head coach. Housley, as you might know, is currently an assistant coach of the Nashville Predators.

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.