Draft Day 2, Duchene, plus more…

It’s hard to believe considering some of the days we’ve had recently, but Day 2 of the draft was a relatively slow news day when it comes to trades. The only trade of note was the Travis Hamonic trade, which Mike Clifford explored from a fantasy standpoint.

There’s a few reasons that the Islanders would trade Hamonic. For starters, remember that he had requested (then rescinded) a trade to a western Canadian team last season to be closer to family. Also, that’s three draft picks in the first two rounds that the Islanders receive in return. Could the Islanders also be freeing up a little space to make a run at a free agent?

Mike brought up the fact that Hamonic is injury-prone – that he hasn’t played more than 75 games in any of the past six 82-game seasons. But if you’re wondering how much the Islanders might really miss Hamonic, check out the stat below.
 

Isles were 19-21-9 with Hamonic in lineup; 20-8-3 without

— Eric Hornick (@ehornick) April 7, 2017

So remember how the Islanders had protected four defensemen and four forwards for the expansion draft? One of those defensemen was Hamonic. Another one was Nick Leddy. The other two? Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech. With Hamonic now traded, both should be in the Islanders’ lineup this coming season.

Pelech hasn’t been a notable offensive contributor in either the AHL or NHL, but Pulock should be of some interest to you. He’s currently number 8 on Dobber’s Top 50 Fantasy Hockey Prospect Defensemen. We’ve been waiting for what seems like an eternity for Pulock (actually only a few years), so it’s now or never for Pulock. But I don’t see how he doesn’t make the team now.

If you’re looking for a deep sleeper to make the Islanders, a blueliner to consider is Devon Toews (no relation to Jonathan). Toews scored 46 points in 76 games in the AHL last season and has shown offensive upside at every level.

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Now that the draft has been completed, here’s some information that might be of some interest to you:

Country # of Selections

Canada 77

United States 50

Sweden 27

Finland 23

Russia 18

Czech Republic 9

Switzerland 3

Belarus 2

Denmark 2

Slovakia 2

France 1

Germany 1

Norway 1

Slovenia 1

Total 217

League # of Selections

OHL 42

WHL 33

USHL 20

Sweden-Jr. 17

QMJHL 14

High School – U.S. 12

Sweden 12

NCAA 9

USNTDP Under-18 9

Finland-Jr. 7

Finland 6

Russia-Jr. 6

Czech Republic 4

AJHL 3

Russia-2 3

Czech Republic-Jr. 2

High School – Canada 2

NAHL 2

OJHL 2

Russia 2

Sweden-2 2

BCHL 1

Czech Republic-2 1

Finland-2 1

France 1

Sweden-3 1

Switzerland 1

Switzerland-2 1

USPHL 1

Total 217

I have to say that I really liked what Dobber Prospects Radio came up with on Twitter after each player was picked. Not just the pick, but also the fantasy outlook grade on each player. A+ work guys, not only with these, but also with your draft coverage.  
 

With the First Overall pick in the #2017NHLDraft, the @NJDevils select Nico Hischier.#NHLDraft #NHL #Devils pic.twitter.com/1mrTfhkWh8

— DobberProspectsRadio (@DPR_show) June 23, 2017

With the Second Overall pick in the #2017NHLDraft, the @NHLFlyers select Nolan Patrick. #NHLDraft #NHL #Flyers pic.twitter.com/57wEgdu2w0

— DobberProspectsRadio (@DPR_show) June 23, 2017

There were also the Dobber Prospects mentions on Sportsnet. Great mass marketing exposure, because even people I know who are big hockey fans but don’t play fantasy hockey notice. One such friend, through email: “Hey, isn’t that the site you write for?” So if you're watching the draft but you haven't been following prospects closely, your favorite team drafts a player you've never heard of. See the Dobber Prospects comment on the ticker, look Dobber Prospects up on the internet, maybe go see some of your team's other prospects. You don't even have to be into fantasy hockey to use the site.
 

Quotes from @pharling in the Fantasy Prospects Report here:https://t.co/M9eawc7BrU pic.twitter.com/ScrAoenxEm

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) June 24, 2017

If being picked first overall doesn’t solidify Nico Hischier as the top fantasy prospect among draft-eligible players, then I don’t know what will. If you have to pick between the two, Hischier is arguably the player with the higher fantasy upside. But because many fantasy leaguers will default to the first overall pick, I’d expect Hischier to be picked first in most leagues. At least that’s what I’m expecting in my league, where I have the second overall pick. I’m totally expecting to land Nolan Patrick.

With the Devils’ lack of legitimate scoring threats, Hischier is a strong bet to start the season in the NHL. As for Patrick, I heard the idea discussed that he could be back in junior for another season. His point-per-game numbers suggest that he doesn’t need another season in the WHL, but remember that he played only 33 games last season.

I mentioned a potential logjam at center when I discussed the Brayden Schenn trade. So if Patrick gets out of the gate slowly or is on very limited minutes to start, I wonder if he’s looking into that World Junior Championship opportunity that he missed out on last season.

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Now that every major trade has been analyzed fantasy-wise here at Dobber Hockey, it might be time to look at who didn’t get traded. At the top of the list would be Matt Duchene, who outside of Jordan Eberle and maybe Alex Galchenyuk was thought to be the most likely player to be dealt at the draft. Something had to be done after the Avalanche’s disastrous season, so Duchene, Tyson Barrie, and Gabriel Landeskog are all on the trading block.

When Duchene was drafted in 2009, he was mentioned in the same breath as John Tavares and Victor Hedman. Now? Duchene is 55 in Dobber’s Top 300 Keeper League Skaters, yet he is all the way down to 152 in NHL.com’s single-season pre-draft rankings. The discrepancy might be explained by this: Duchene’s value stays down short-term if he stays in Colorado. But long term either the team should improve or he’ll be traded to a better team. Both scenarios should provide an opportunity for his fantasy value to rebound.

Now Joe Sakic is saying that he is willing to keep Duchene because he hasn’t found an offer that he likes. So Duchene keeper owners (myself included) have to consider the possibility that he remains in Colorado for the 2017-18 season. If you’re stuck with him like I am, is there any possibility for improvement? At least you could say that his fantasy value can’t get any worse.  

There’s the obvious plus/minus total, which won’t improve much unless the Avalanche themselves improve. And unless the Avs make a big splash in free agency (and they still have cap room and players to sign), don’t expect that help to come along.

Over the three seasons prior to 2016-17, Duchene was a 200+ shot producer per season. Last season he was down to 160. Part of that might have been the power play, which was abysmal (12.6%, 30^th in NHL). A player of Duchene’s caliber should have more than nine power-play points all season. But he had just 7 PPP in 2014-15, so it’s not highly unusual for him to underwhelm with the man advantage.

As you’d expect, Duchene’s shooting percentage fell in 2016-17, but it didn’t take a major nosedive. Duchene had a 15 percent accuracy in his 30-goal season of 2015-16, and an 11.3 percent accuracy in 2016-17. So there was some puck luck in 2015-16, as Duchene typically shoots around 12 percent. So to improve, he will simply need to shoot the puck more, since he can’t rely on luck to get back on track.

I’d say that if he stays in Colorado, you should let Duchene fall in drafts. Way, way down. Pick him in the later rounds and at least you have a reason to drop him if 2017-18 provides more of the same.

All of that, of course, could change if Duchene is traded. And there’s still lots of time for that to happen. One possibility is Nashville, who are shopping around for a forward to replace James Neal according to TSN. Montreal also has to be in the mix, since they desperately need a center with first-line upside.

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.