Ramblings: Draft Day 2, Duchene (June 25)

Ian Gooding

2017-06-25

Draft Day 2, Duchene, plus more…

It’s hard to believe considering some of the days we’ve had recently, but Day 2 of the draft was a relatively slow news day when it comes to trades. The only trade of note was the Travis Hamonic trade, which Mike Clifford explored from a fantasy standpoint.

There’s a few reasons that the Islanders would trade Hamonic. For starters, remember that he had requested (then rescinded) a trade to a western Canadian team last season to be closer to family. Also, that’s three draft picks in the first two rounds that the Islanders receive in return. Could the Islanders also be freeing up a little space to make a run at a free agent?

Mike brought up the fact that Hamonic is injury-prone – that he hasn’t played more than 75 games in any of the past six 82-game seasons. But if you’re wondering how much the Islanders might really miss Hamonic, check out the stat below.
 


So remember how the Islanders had protected four defensemen and four forwards for the expansion draft? One of those defensemen was Hamonic. Another one was Nick Leddy. The other two? Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech. With Hamonic now traded, both should be in the Islanders’ lineup this coming season.

Pelech hasn’t been a notable offensive contributor in either the AHL or NHL, but Pulock should be of some interest to you. He’s currently number 8 on Dobber’s Top 50 Fantasy Hockey Prospect Defensemen. We’ve been waiting for what seems like an eternity for Pulock (actually only a few years), so it’s now or never for Pulock. But I don’t see how he doesn’t make the team now.

If you’re looking for a deep sleeper to make the Islanders, a blueliner to consider is Devon Toews (no relation to Jonathan). Toews scored 46 points in 76 games in the AHL last season and has shown offensive upside at every level.

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Now that the draft has been completed, here’s some information that might be of some interest to you:

Country # of Selections

Canada 77

United States 50

Sweden 27

Finland 23

Russia 18

Czech Republic 9

Switzerland 3

Belarus 2

Denmark 2

Slovakia 2

France 1

Germany 1

Norway 1

Slovenia 1

Total 217

League # of Selections

OHL 42

WHL 33

USHL 20

Sweden-Jr. 17

QMJHL 14

High School – U.S. 12

Sweden 12

NCAA 9

USNTDP Under-18 9

Finland-Jr. 7

Finland 6

Russia-Jr. 6

Czech Republic 4

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AJHL 3

Russia-2 3

Czech Republic-Jr. 2

High School – Canada 2

NAHL 2

OJHL 2

Russia 2

Sweden-2 2

BCHL 1

Czech Republic-2 1

Finland-2 1

France 1

Sweden-3 1

Switzerland 1

Switzerland-2 1

USPHL 1

Total 217

I have to say that I really liked what Dobber Prospects Radio came up with on Twitter after each player was picked. Not just the pick, but also the fantasy outlook grade on each player. A+ work guys, not only with these, but also with your draft coverage.  
 


There were also the Dobber Prospects mentions on Sportsnet. Great mass marketing exposure, because even people I know who are big hockey fans but don’t play fantasy hockey notice. One such friend, through email: “Hey, isn’t that the site you write for?” So if you're watching the draft but you haven't been following prospects closely, your favorite team drafts a player you've never heard of. See the Dobber Prospects comment on the ticker, look Dobber Prospects up on the internet, maybe go see some of your team's other prospects. You don't even have to be into fantasy hockey to use the site.
 


If being picked first overall doesn’t solidify Nico Hischier as the top fantasy prospect among draft-eligible players, then I don’t know what will. If you have to pick between the two, Hischier is arguably the player with the higher fantasy upside. But because many fantasy leaguers will default to the first overall pick, I’d expect Hischier to be picked first in most leagues. At least that’s what I’m expecting in my league, where I have the second overall pick. I’m totally expecting to land Nolan Patrick.

With the Devils’ lack of legitimate scoring threats, Hischier is a strong bet to start the season in the NHL. As for Patrick, I heard the idea discussed that he could be back in junior for another season. His point-per-game numbers suggest that he doesn’t need another season in the WHL, but remember that he played only 33 games last season.

I mentioned a potential logjam at center when I discussed the Brayden Schenn trade. So if Patrick gets out of the gate slowly or is on very limited minutes to start, I wonder if he’s looking into that World Junior Championship opportunity that he missed out on last season.

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Now that every major trade has been analyzed fantasy-wise here at Dobber Hockey, it might be time to look at who didn’t get traded. At the top of the list would be Matt Duchene, who outside of Jordan Eberle and maybe Alex Galchenyuk was thought to be the most likely player to be dealt at the draft. Something had to be done after the Avalanche’s disastrous season, so Duchene, Tyson Barrie, and Gabriel Landeskog are all on the trading block.

When Duchene was drafted in 2009, he was mentioned in the same breath as John Tavares and Victor Hedman. Now? Duchene is 55 in Dobber’s Top 300 Keeper League Skaters, yet he is all the way down to 152 in NHL.com’s single-season pre-draft rankings. The discrepancy might be explained by this: Duchene’s value stays down short-term if he stays in Colorado. But long term either the team should improve or he’ll be traded to a better team. Both scenarios should provide an opportunity for his fantasy value to rebound.

Now Joe Sakic is saying that he is willing to keep Duchene because he hasn’t found an offer that he likes. So Duchene keeper owners (myself included) have to consider the possibility that he remains in Colorado for the 2017-18 season. If you’re stuck with him like I am, is there any possibility for improvement? At least you could say that his fantasy value can’t get any worse.  

There’s the obvious plus/minus total, which won’t improve much unless the Avalanche themselves improve. And unless the Avs make a big splash in free agency (and they still have cap room and players to sign), don’t expect that help to come along.

Over the three seasons prior to 2016-17, Duchene was a 200+ shot producer per season. Last season he was down to 160. Part of that might have been the power play, which was abysmal (12.6%, 30th in NHL). A player of Duchene’s caliber should have more than nine power-play points all season. But he had just 7 PPP in 2014-15, so it’s not highly unusual for him to underwhelm with the man advantage.

As you’d expect, Duchene’s shooting percentage fell in 2016-17, but it didn’t take a major nosedive. Duchene had a 15 percent accuracy in his 30-goal season of 2015-16, and an 11.3 percent accuracy in 2016-17. So there was some puck luck in 2015-16, as Duchene typically shoots around 12 percent. So to improve, he will simply need to shoot the puck more, since he can’t rely on luck to get back on track.

I’d say that if he stays in Colorado, you should let Duchene fall in drafts. Way, way down. Pick him in the later rounds and at least you have a reason to drop him if 2017-18 provides more of the same.

All of that, of course, could change if Duchene is traded. And there’s still lots of time for that to happen. One possibility is Nashville, who are shopping around for a forward to replace James Neal according to TSN. Montreal also has to be in the mix, since they desperately need a center with first-line upside.

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

11 Comments

  1. Tyler 2017-06-25 at 08:51

    Sakic is a bonehead, and they’re killing Duchene. Yeah, he’s on my fantasy team, but he’s also one of my favorites to watch. He’s been on the block for three seasons – what does that do to a guy’s morale and confidence? Hopefully he can get dealt to an organization that knows what they’re doing.

    • Striker 2017-06-25 at 21:53

      Really. I had no idea he was on the block for 3 seasons, especially considering his current deal was only signed 3 years ago.

      • Tyler 2017-06-26 at 09:09

        Pretty sure that’s been the case off and on. They threw him on the block one season that he struggled – the first they tried him on the wing, which wasn’t a positive move for him. Then two years ago he was on the block all the way through December before he blew up for the second half of the season. Then this past season. Sakic should either move him or take his name off the table. It can’t help his performance, professional or not.

        • Striker 2017-06-26 at 09:52

          I’m a hockey freak & the 1st real rumor I have heard of him being moved was late last season. Duchene has played LW on & off in his career. & when playing for Canada.

          Duchene is a good player who played for a terrible team last season. Everyone suffered. He will bounce back to historical norms, those are now 25 goals & 50 to 55 points in Colorado as they are constructed now.

  2. Striker 2017-06-25 at 09:56

    NYI protected 5 Dman not 4. Very selective choosing to show 1 year of stats for NYI’s record this year. Had Hamonic not been injured during NYI’s resurgence under Weight perhaps NYI would have played better? NYI’s problem’s were Capunao’s. It took almost 30 games before he finally relented & put Lee with Tavares, yet he still tries to spread what little scoring he had over 4 lines, Weight dressed a far more traditional line up loading up 2 lines essentially.

    NYI came up 1 game short of making the playoffs. 1/2 a game actually 1 OT or SO loss a win & I win big. On Dec 30th I put 1K on NYI to make the playoffs, the day Halak got sent down. If not for a swoon from March 11th thru month end they would have. Bummer.

    • Ian Gooding 2017-06-25 at 10:32

      Sorry, I missed Boychuk at the top of the list. Seems highly unusual for a team to protect 5 D and only 3 F.

      Sure, I might be cherry picking the Hamonic games won stat. But I thought it would be food for thought. He’s a valuable player who works his butt off every game. But my point remains. By protecting all these D, maybe it’s time for the Isles to get these young guys in.

      • Striker 2017-06-25 at 18:22

        Ian.

        Not meant to be condescending just short for time so will keep brief. No easy feat for me. Ha-ha!.

        Both now have to clear waivers to be sent down. They play in the NHL moving forward, if NYI tried to waive either both would be selected with out the slightest hesitation, the reason both were protected in expansion draft as Snow didn’t want to lose either.

        Both will play in NYI next season or be playing for another NHL team as not a hope the 1st team selecting in the waiver draft passes on either never mind 30 other teams.

        NYI still has to many Dman to start the season. 4 could rotate in some way until a trade is made, Seidenberg, Mayfield, Pulock & Pelech, possibly even Hickey but I assume 1 gets moved in short order. Short order may not be until a hole needs to be filled & Snow is certain they are NHL ready.

        • Ian Gooding 2017-06-25 at 22:41

          I hadn’t thought of when they are no longer waiver-exempt. Just looking at the rules here, it appears both will be waiver exempt. Pulock signed his entry-level contract in 2013, so wouldn’t he have had to pass through waivers last season when he reached 3 years? He did start the season in the minors.

          https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-faq

  3. Striker 2017-06-25 at 10:39

    Duchene will bounce back, he’s my #2 bounce back candidate behind Barrie.

    Colorado was a mess last year. Roy packing up his toys & crying as he stormed out of the sand box didn’t help. Colorado is a bad team, they had 1 of the 3 worst D’s in the NHL before Johnson missed 36 games, their forward depth was the worst, they couldn’t ice 2 scoring lines, they only had 4 offensive quality players in McKinnon, Duchen, Landeskog & Rantanen; 1 a rookie. That made checking Colorado & shutting down what little offense they had very easy.

    Bednar looked lost as a coach in the NHL. His choice of player deployment & line combinations was odd. What little scoring they had should have been used together. He obviously didn’t like Soderberg & banished him to a checking role. His PP TOI/GP dropped form 2:15 a game to 0:58 & Iginla went from 2nd in PP TOI/GP in 2015-16 to 7th last season. Playing with Soderberg in a checking role & not at least using his shot on the PP was bizarre. Iginla had 6 goals, 3 on the PP & 9 points in 16 games playing on a scoring line in LA a 25 goal pace!

    Colorado is rebuilding, they have been for 3 or 4 years depending upon how you want to look at it. The 2 headed monster of Roy & Sakic was a terrible management strategy. Obviously Sakic won that power struggle. The general consensus is a rebuild takes 5 years, Vegas just came out & said they want to compete for the cup in 6. Why is Sakic being judged so harshly in such a short time frame? Especially considering Roy was the VP of Hockey operations & according to Bob MacKenzie had the final say on all hockey matters.

    “On May 23, 2013, Roy was named head coach and vice president of hockey operations of the Colorado Avalanche.[36] TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported that Roy will have the final say in all hockey matters.”

    From Patrick Roy’s Wikipedia page.

    Was this true? No idea never understood the concept, basically giving a coach a say in player personal decisions. Dave Tippett had the same title bestowed on him last season, that didn’t work out very well for him either when he actually disagreed with the GM. 1 person needs to have the final say, be it the GM, or President. In may organizations it’s now the President with the final say. Any good manager though consults, discusses & ideally the decision is arrived at unanimously. If not 1 person decides.

    What I do know is Sakic hasn’t had 5 years, 3 at best & possibly only 1 where the decisions were solely his to make. His acquisitions of Nieto was an upgrade on the 3rd line, his acquisition of Andrighetto was solid he fit perfectly with McKinnon & Rantanen.

    Lets see how all the youth advances, Rantanen, Zadarov, Nieto, Andrighetto, Grigorenko all played with Colorado last season but aren’t fully developed & how the additions of Compher, Jost, Greer, Bigras, Mirinov, Lindholm, Beaudin & Meloche all perform. McKinnon is only 21, Landeskog 24, hell even Duchene is only 26 & Barrie still hasn’t hit my games played threshold of 400 games for Dman to fully develop by NHL standards, having only played 338, nor has he hit his prime for Dman of 28, he’s only 25.

    I had Colorado finishing 13th in the west last year when the season started, 27th overall. My expectations weren’t very high, less so when Roy bolted at the last minute & Bednar a rookie coach was in way over his head with this group to ice an even remotely competitive product. Colorado won’t get 48 points again but will be the 2nd worst team in the west & 30th overall next season. The only team their competing with is Vegas for last overall both in the west & NHL.

    Duchene & Barrie bounce back to historical norms though in points.

  4. Striker 2017-06-25 at 10:58

    Schenn played significantly more games as a LW than C & has had for years, moving back to C when injures dictate, like when Couturier missed 16 games. Schenn formed part of 1 of the most formidable PP’s in the NHL for the last 3 years. Why bring in Filppula & Lehtera at the expense of Schenn? How does this make Philadelphia better? It doesn’t, worse actually, Who plays LW in Philadelphia now? Raffle, Konecny, Lindbolm? Expecting a rookie or a 2nd year player to contribute consistently is very risk. Weird trade.

    I don’t get bringing in either Filppula or Lehtera, thankfully they only have 1 & 2 years remaining on their contracts respectively & this was a business decision; Schenn has 3 years remaining, as opposed to a hockey decision & the compensation paid justified the lose. StL 1st is going very late. They are a great hockey team that just hasn’t put it all together but this is a team I really like. A cup contender that just can’t get out of the west.

    I sure hope the NHL does away with the bracket formula. I have heard nothing but when implemented with realignment the press release said 3 years.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/realignment-plan-approved-by-board-of-governors/c-660138

    2nd to last paragraph just before the map.

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