Habs Pay the Price, DeAngelo, Hellebuyck, plus more…

After an absolute flurry of activity on July 1, the day after started by barely registering a peep. Then later in the day we had the Carey Price contract announcement. Then the Evgeny Kuznetsov contract announcement. Then Patrick Marleau signing with the Leafs (fantasy implications here, followed by Marcus Johansson being traded to New Jersey (fantasy implications here). Then the Joe Thornton contract announcement. So I’ll focus on Price to start today’s Ramblings.

If you haven’t heard, Price signed an eight-year contract with a cap hit of $10.5 million over that time. His current contract has one more year left at $6.5 million. So as it stands, the Habs are built around three players with contracts of over five years: Price, Shea Weber, and newly acquired Jonathan Drouin. Starting next season, these three players will earn close to a combined $24 million over the next six years.

It’s too early to tell whether Drouin will pay off, so I’ll reserve judgment. Price’s contract could turn out to be a lot like Roberto Luongo’s, as he will be a few months shy of turning 39 when it ends. What’s even more concerning is that Weber will be a few months shy of 41 once his ends! It’s no wonder that Habs’ fans are showing a lot of angst toward how Marc Bergevin is building their team.

But even though Price’s contract is a major risk, it’s probably a risk worth taking. Even though teams aren’t building from the net out like they used to, the pressure cooker in Montreal would be far worse had Price be allowed to walk away. Think about the constant regret surrounding P.K. Subban.

It was the same situation in Vancouver when Luongo received his contract, which in hindsight is easy to conclude was a bad contract. But without Luongo the Canucks wouldn’t have won two President’s Trophies. And with a lesser goalie than Price, the Habs don’t make the playoffs. Yes, top-notch goaltending still gives your team an advantage.

On a fantasy level, salary cap leaguers that own Price will need to build their team around him. So it will be imperative to those owners that he remain top-tier. If goaltending isn’t a major factor on your cap team, you may want to take the opportunity to shop Price before that contract kicks in at the start of the 2018-19 season.

With the Price and Weber contracts, the Habs will need to be efficient with the remainder of the players that they sign. It will be interesting to see how the Price contract affects the potential re-signing of Alexander Radulov and Andrei Markov. There’s about $15 million left in cap space, and reading between the lines I’d say Bergevin probably won’t bring both back. Personally I think Radulov would be the better signing because of age, but definitely not at a price that would cripple this team. It should be self-explanatory as to why.
 

"At equal talents, we'll draft the Quebec-born player. That's not going to change while I'm here." -Bergevin

— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) July 2, 2017

Here’s what I wonder, though, with the above statement: If it’s important for the Canadiens to draft players out of their own backyard, would free agents from Quebec also be willing to take a hometown discount to come to Montreal? Or are the Habs just one of 30 teams now?

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During the time that the Marleau announcement was making the rounds, there was a hint of doubt that Joe Thornton would be back. But shortly after, Thornton’s agent removed any uncertainty with this tweet:
 

Client Joe Thornton, who turns 38 today, signing new 1 year contract with a total value of $8 million. Happy Birthday Jumbo! @SanJoseSharks pic.twitter.com/MzDU8ovEgp

— Top Shelf Hockey (@Topshelf_TSSM) July 3, 2017

Remember when Doug Wilson said that he wanted to trade Thornton, but Thornton called Wilson an idiot and said he planned to stay? (I’m paraphrasing here, not making a direct quote.) With an $8 million cap hit, there must have been some serious offers for Thornton, considering that he may have given the Sharks a hometown discount. The one-year term, combined with Marleau’s departure, means that the Sharks’ window won’t be open much longer.

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One more July 1 transaction that we forgot to mention was the Predators’ trade of Colin Wilson to the Avalanche for a fourth-round pick. The move was likely necessitated by the free agent signing of Nick Bonino.

Wilson was at one time a fantasy sleeper because he was a top 10 draft pick in 2008, although he posted a respectable 35 points (12g-23a) in 70 games last season. If you didn’t notice him much during the playoffs, it’s because he had missed some time due to injury. Wilson can play at either center or the wing, but it seems likely that he will fit in on the third line unless the Avs trade Matt Duchene. You’re probably not drafting him anyway, considering how most Avalanche players were not worth owning at all last season.

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Now that the dust has settled on free agency, I’d like to examine the fantasy value of a couple young players affected by the recent transactions. Keep in mind that these situations could change and that we’ll have all summer to discuss and think about what might happen, so by no means would these be my final predictions. What I’m saying, I guess, is that I reserve the right to change my mind… or not…

Anthony DeAngelo

DeAngelo is currently ranked #2 on Dobber’s Top 50 Fantasy Hockey Prospects Defensemen. This was a well-deserved ranking, considering DeAngelo’s scoring upside and possible new role with the Rangers. That is, until Kevin Shattenkirk came into the picture.

There’s no doubt that Shattenkirk is the power-play QB that the Rangers have needed for a while. So with that news, DeAngelo will be in tough to make the roster at all, since he already possesses a skill set similar to Shattenkirk. A total of 10 of DeAngelo’s 14 points came with the man advantage last season, so we can rightfully call DeAngelo a power-play specialist at the moment.

The Rangers very frequently use a four-forward one-defenseman power-play unit, and the guy manning the point on the first unit last season was Ryan McDonagh.  It seems unlikely that he’ll be off the power play entirely, so DeAngelo will have his work cut out for him if he is to make the Rangers’ squad. Brady Skjei will also be looking for some power-play minutes. If the Rangers change to a 3F 2D power play, then things will open up for these blueliners. The additions of Shattenkirk and DeAngelo should at least make that idea a viable option.

Connor Hellebuyck

Even though the Jets managed to hide Ondrej Pavelec in the AHL for most of the season, the goaltending was still an unmitigated disaster. Winnipeg was one of four teams (Arizona, Dallas, and Colorado the others) that allowed an average of at least three goals per game. With 56 games played last season, Hellebuyck clearly wasn’t ready for the full-time workload of an NHL goalie. This after fantasy owners had been tripping over themselves attempting to obtain him, especially after Pavelec was demoted.

Even though Mason at times over the past two seasons has appeared to timeshare the net with Michal Neuvirth, Mason has played between 51 and 61 games during his four season with the Flyers. So that pushes Hellebuyck down to about 25 to 35 games, which should then lower his ranking from 20^th in Dobber’s Top 100 Keeper League Goaltenders. Obviously Hellebuyck has a bright future, and Mason is only signed for two years. But at this point he’s a third goaltender at best in a 12-team league.

Having owned Mason the last few seasons, I’ve noticed that he tends to play better when Neuvirth was injured. So having Hellebuyck looking over his shoulder might not necessarily be a good thing. There’s also a very real chance that Mason ends the season with less than 50 games played. All is not lost for Hellebuyck owners, as this should play out as one of the more interesting goaltending battles this season.

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