Andrei Markov is moving on from the NHL, as it came out on Thursday that he wouldn’t be signing anywhere in the league. Since getting to the NHL as a 22-year-old in the 2000-01 season, he amassed 572 points in 990 career regular season games. He played his entire career with the Montreal Canadiens.

This little nugget from Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet found daylight:

Markov also said he would have played for MON on a one-year deal, but the Canadiens declined

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 27, 2017

I suppose if the Habs had another big move coming down the pipeline, refusing to give Markov a one-year deal for maybe $6 million would make sense. That’s only if another big move occurs, which remains to be seen.

Fantasy-wise, he was as valuable an asset as there was over the last decade or so. Yes, he had those knee issues that cropped up several years ago that limited him to just 65 games over a three-year span. Since the 2005 lockout, however, he managed 460 points 723 games. That mark of 0.64 points/game was bested only by Erik Karlsson and Nicklas Lidstrom among defencemen since the 2005 lockout. Since the end of the 2012 lockout, he had missed just two games in four years before missing 20 in 2016-17.

It’s a shame to see a career end in this way. He had shown through his play over several seasons to be a reliable puck-moving defenceman, even at this age, something most teams need. He apparently didn’t want to play anywhere but Montreal, which makes this even harder as a hockey fan. He’s one of the more under-appreciated players of this century, and will be missed by fantasy hockey owners. Best wishes to him with his new career in the KHL. 

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Nashville signed restricted free agent centre Ryan Johansen to an eight-year contract with an average annual value of $8 million. Johansen turns 25 at the end of the month, and managed 95 points in 124 regular season games after being traded to the Predators.

Earlier this month, I wrote about why RyJo is probably an over-valued roto asset (different story in points-only leagues). There’s no need re-hashing those details.

What I will say is this is probably an overpayment, but their hands were kind of tied here. The list of centres with at least 275 points through their Age 24 season since the 2005 lockout is fairly short (15 names, not including Johansen), and with the cap increasing by about 25 percent over the last six years, it’s easy to see why he got this deal. Nashville has several team-friendly contracts on the books so this doesn’t put them in a huge bind, and this locks up the franchise’s top-line centre for the better part of a decade.   

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Throughout the summer, I’m going through the league one team at a time and reviewing the relevant fantasy performances from each squad. Next in the list, alphabetically, is St. Louis.

Vladimir Tarasenko

For the third consecutive season, the Russian winger managed at least 35 goals and 70 points, totalling 39 and 75, respectively. His shot attempt rate at five-on-five took a bit of a dip, but it was still among the elite in the NHL. He’s proven himself a high-percentage shooter by this point, so even a small decline in shot rate isn’t a real problem here.

The one concern here is that 2016-17 was the third straight season he has seen his assist rate decline, from a career-high 1.43 per 60 minutes at five-on-five in 2013-14, to 1.03 last year. That also includes a similar decline in primary assist rate, so it’s not as if he’s simply getting unlucky by not racking up secondary assists. A big reason for this is that even though he shot 11.4 percent at five-on-five individually, the team shot 8.4 percent with him on the ice. Taking out the shots and goals Tarasenko accounted for, the team shot an even 7 percent when he was on the ice but wasn’t responsible for the goal. It’s the second season in a row something like this happened. If he wants to jack up his assist rates, it’s on his teammates to start finishing (namely a scoring centre).

That’s being a bit nitpicky, admittedly. It’s not like he doesn’t rack up assists; his ice time and usage alone will give him 30-plus like clockwork. It’s just that if he is to take that next step and assert himself into the Hart Trophy conversation – and be among the truly elite in the fantasy game – a boost in those assist totals would go a long way in doing so. Regardless of format, though, he’s still a second-round pick, and a coveted keeper asset. I don’t see why that would change in the near-term.

Friday’s Ramblings from Neil Parker included a bit on how he’s going all-in on Tarasenko this fantasy season. I recommend checking out his thoughts.

Jaden Schwartz

After tallying 53 goals over two seasons in his early 20s from 2013-15, hopes were high for Schwartz in 2015-16. An injury-plagued season destroyed those hopes, but a healthy 2016-17 had hopes up again. While he didn’t have a poor season – 55 points is nothing to sneeze at – failing to crack 20 goals was a disappointment for fantasy owners.

Last year was a prime example of the fantasy issues arising when a low-volume shooter doesn’t maintain a high rate of conversion. He still managed to shoot 10.6 percent in all situations last year, was on the ice for nearly 19 minutes a game, and still failed to crack 20 goals. When a low-volume shooter doesn’t maintain a high percentage, the resulting dip in goals is a double whammy.

The issue with Schwartz was the power play. He managed just three goals after averaging more than double that from his back-to-back 25-plus goal seasons earlier in his career. He accomplished by shooting under 9 percent with the man advantage, despite shooting over 20 percent over the three prior seasons. 

His role hasn’t changed on the power-play, as evidenced by his five-on-four shot map from 2014-15, and last year, via HockeyViz:

Given he was on the top unit the majority of his power-play minutes, it’s curious he saw such a dip in shooting percentage. Without going back and looking over the game tape of their power plays, I would guess there is a bit of poor luck in here, and that should turn around next year.

He led the team’s forwards in five-on-five ice time last year (yes, seriously), and was third among regular forwards in power-play ice time per game. Being used so heavily should provide him with a nice floor (I think we saw that last year) with upside beyond it. A bit of better luck on the PP could push him back towards the 25-goal mark and over 60 points. Just be wary of him in roto leagues; he is not a peripheral stat stuffer. He is a much better asset in points-only leagues.

Paul Stastny

With just 22 assists and 40 points, Stastny managed the lowest totals in those two categories for any season in his career in which he’s played at least 50 games. It was also the second consecutive season in which he failed to play at least 70 games, and fourth consecutive season in which he failed to play at least 75. He’s also on the wrong side of 30 years old, having completed his Age 31 season in 2016-17.

Not great.

The only thing that saved Stastny from a truly catastrophic season was shooting 16.1 percent at all strengths, the third-highest mark of his career, and well above the 12.9 percent he shot over the three previous seasons. He also shot over 15 percent at five-on-five, his highest mark since 2007-08. It was also his third consecutive season of declining five-on-five shot on goal, and shot attempt, rates.

Declining shot rates probably won’t turn themselves around as he continues to age, and he was never a high-volume shooter to begin with. This is a huge issue for his fantasy value as mentioned in Schwartz’s section.  

On the bright side of things, with Jori Lehtera gone from the team, it might finally be time for Stastny to get full-time slotting on the top line with Tarasenko; over his St. Louis career, Stastny has spent less than 30 percent of his five-on-five ice time with the team’s top sniper. St. Louis shoots more, and scores more, when Stastny is on the ice with Tarasenko than when he’s not (shocker, I know). Nonetheless, it’s a step up for his fantasy value.

I’m still very wary here. He doesn’t stuff peripherals, and he can’t stay healthy. Even with top-line billing, if he misses 10 games, he may not crack 50 points, and almost certainly won’t get to 20 goals. Should training camp roll around and indications are that he will indeed play with Tarasenko, I would expect his ADP to rise. Regardless, in a standard roto league that doesn’t include face-offs, he’ll struggle to be a top-100 forward. Adjust accordingly.

Colton Parayko

Having written about Parayko earlier this week, I won’t go over everything again. The 2016-17 season cemented him as one of the elite young defencemen in the game, though the composition of that St. Louis blue line might prevent him from reaching his fantasy potential. For reasons why, I recommend reading what I wrote on Parayko linked above.

Alex Pietrangelo

Another instance where I wrote by Parayko and Pietrangelo was a prior Ramblings that discussed drafting defence partners. I recommend reading that as analysis of Pietrangelo’s fantasy hockey future is contained within that post.

What I will add is that with his 48 points in 2016-17, Pietrangelo is one of nine defencemen with at least 300 points since the start of the 2010 season:

Even if Parayko were to supplant Pietrangelo on the top PP unit next year – and I don’t think he does for the most part – Pietrangelo has already shown the ability to play with another offensive option on the blue line who racks up the power-play time in Kevin Shattenkirk, and still be productive.

The lack of roto-stuffing stats besides points – his penalty minute, shot, and hit rates are never high – means that he could be overvalued in roto leagues. He had 14 goals (a career-high, by the way), 48 points, and in standard ESPN roto leagues, was not a top-15 defenceman. If a career-high in goals, and nearly 50 points, isn’t enough for a player to be a 1D (12-team league) in a roto league, it’s worth keeping a close eye on where is ADP falls. If you draft him inside the top-20 d-men, you’re probably taking him at his ceiling (there are always outlier seasons, I just mean realistic ceiling), and that is a concern. In points-only leagues, he could be a top-10 option, but that value diminishes for this defenceman when more scoring categories are added.