Every Sunday this off-season, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".

Contributors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, and Neil Parker

1. It was undoubtedly a down year last year for the uber-talented Johnny Gaudreau but even a ‘down’ year where he missed 10 games and was likely injured for another good portion still brought 61 points. In fact, he is one of 14 players with at least 200 points over the last three seasons and he’s the youngest player on that list.

The concerns are about his goal-scoring and shot-taking. As for the latter, he actually had a higher shot-per-minute rate in 2016-17 than 2015-16, so the decline in shots per game is a function of lost ice time rather than individual performance.  Also, after shooting over 14 percent through his first 160 NHL games, that fell under 10 percent last year (remember that finger fracture, too). In sum, maybe he won’t reach the goal-scoring heights of Max Pacioretty or Brad Marchand but I don’t see him being Jonathan Huberdeau, either.

A year ago, Gaudreau was often going somewhere in the second round. His performance last year dropped him a round but I would argue that’s where he should probably slot anyway even if he is a 75-point player again. He won’t be a huge volume shooter and won’t take many penalties, so as a (largely) four-category player, he shouldn’t be a second-round pick. Those wanting to take him somewhere around the top-30, though, are probably going to get their value back.

2. Maybe Mats Zuccarello can’t be the 25-goal guy he was a couple years ago but he’s only turning 30 years old and has at least 59 points in three of his last four seasons.

Even with just 15 goals last year, and shooting a career-low 7.9 percent, Zuccarello was still a top-75 skater in roto formats. The concern could be that Derek Stepan was traded and he was the center with whom Zuccarello spent most of his time with. However, he still gets Mika Zibanejad, a solid offensive forward in his own right. Either way, the Norwegian winger should lead the team, or be close to leading the team in ice time.

Even if things like his plus-minus regress a bit, he can still easily be a top-125 player. The Rangers are a team that will be more mobile on the blue line, which should help generate some more offence. At an ADP outside of the top-12 rounds, this is an easy selection to make as a second right winger on fantasy rosters.

3. Fantasy sports is always about up-and-coming players. With the group of rookies the NHL had last year, hockey is no exception. Sometimes it can lead to consistent players getting overlooked and I think Blake Wheeler falls into this category.

A very good case could be made that Wheeler should be a second-round pick. Maybe he doesn’t have the pure upside to be a top-5 player, but with the track record he has, it seems pretty certain he won’t finish outside the top-50. He’s a safety pick; a guy you know that, as long as he’s healthy, will give you the points you need.

Wheeler checks all the boxes; he gets loads of ice time, has a secure lineup slotting, should be playing with a very talented centre, and has a long history of top-end fantasy success. If I can wait on a right winger and grab Wheeler in the third round, I will take that every time.

4. Just how good can Alexander Radulov be in Dallas? Of course, his value will depend heavily on whether he plays on the top line with Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. He should receive plenty of opportunities to click with the Stars’ two top forwards. In fact, he will only reach his potential as a top-50 fantasy option if he spends the majority of the season with Seguin and Benn.

Could Radulov credit the quality of his linemates in Montreal for his 54-point season? According to Frozen Pool, Radulov spent just over 50 percent of his ice time last season with Max Pacioretty and Phillip Danault. Like Pacioretty, Benn is a sharpshooter on the opposite wing. Danault obviously isn’t a scorer at the level of Seguin but he quietly constructed an assist-heavy 40-point season. So, the similarities are there, which is probably what the Stars had in mind when they decided to sign Radulov.

Even though he’s been back in the NHL and his personality issues seem to be behind him, Radulov is still more of a high-risk, high-reward option when compared to other similarly-valued forwards. There is always a risk to a player joining a new team. We don’t know for a fact that he will gel perfectly with Seguin and Benn. In addition, what if Ken Hitchcock decides to spread the Stars’ scoring across different lines instead of concentrating it on one line? Or, that Radulov doesn’t get along with Hitchcock?

All of that said, there is the potential for Radulov’s point total to push that of Seguin and Benn should they be his linemates all season. Hey, it worked for Patrick Eaves last season. So, your money should be on it working out for Radulov in Dallas.

5. The Leafs inked Connor Brown to a three-year deal worth $6.3 million on Saturday. This is a great deal for the Leafs, who were able to get 20 goals and nearly 40 points out of Brown in in his rookie season last season.

Speaking of which, it would be a reach to assume that Brown will reach 20 again this season. He won’t get a sniff of the first-unit power play, and may not latch onto the second unit either. Still, only two of his 20 goals were on the man advantage. His 14 percent shooting last season might seem on the higher end but we simply don’t have enough of a sample size to know what kind of shooter he will be. On the other hand, his goal/assist ratio from junior suggests that he's capable of more in the way of helpers. Something in the neighborhood of 15 goals and 20 assists on the third line would be a reasonable projection.

6. Both Mitch Marner and William Nylander had 61 points last year. Marner had 19 goals, Nylander had 22. One difference that stood out is the shots; Marner managed 2.29 per game with Nylander at 2.53. That might not seem huge but that’s an extra 20 shots and perhaps 2-3 goals over the course of a full season. Nylander also shot a fair bit more at five-on-five on a per-minute basis than Marner did. Marner, on the other hand, had a considerably higher first-assist rate than Nylander did, leading to a considerably higher points/60 minutes.

Despite that shot difference, there were a lot of similarities in the seasons. Between the two, however, one of them will likely be playing with Tyler Bozak again, and the other with Auston Matthews. To me, that’s the tie-breaker. The Leafs were a team that consistently ran similar lines all year and Nylander stayed with Matthews (largely) once he was put there. The tiebreaker is who the linemates will be and Nylander has a huge leg up here.

7. As nerdy as it sounds to say, I always look forward to the right-wing position (in hockey! let’s not get political here) more than others when projection time comes around.

For basically the last decade at left wing, it’s been Alex Ovechkin, and then a handful of elite players behind him that have emerged at that time. At centre, it’s been Sidney Crosby, and then a handful of elite players behind him that have emerged at that time.

At right wing, though, it’s been more open over the last 10 years. Sure, Patrick Kane is there now but it’s easy to forget that for three straight 82-game seasons, between 2011-2015, he failed to crack 70 points and was a second- or third-round pick. Steven Stamkos could be considered a right winger depending on how leagues assigned positional eligibility. But there have been years where it’s Corey Perry, or Jarome Iginla, or Martin St. Louis, or Rick Nash, or a bevy of other players that have been top right wingers.

All this is to say is that, until recently, it’s been fun to analyze because it hasn’t always been the same guy at the top of the list.

8. Last month I wrote about how dependent the Flyers skaters, or their pertinent fantasy performers, were on the power play for their value. It really is amazing how if that team has a middling PP, or if the ice time's a bit more spread out over two units, how useless most of those players would have been. I don’t remember anything like that in recent memory.

Brayden Schenn was no exception. Over half of his points last year came with the man advantage, and nearly half his points (50/114) over the last two years. He isn’t really a guy that stuffs peripherals, either, having never cracked 180 shots on goal, and managing at least 40 penalty minutes once. For him to have fantasy value, he has needed those PPPs.

That is what makes the move to St. Louis so intriguing. Schenn was never going to center the top line in Philadelphia so long as Claude Giroux was still around, but he at least has an opportunity to centre the top line in St. Louis and that means dishing the puck to Vladimir Tarasenko.

Schenn hasn’t often been a big five-on-five point producer, finishing under 1.4 points per 60 in two of the last three seasons, and the one year he did well in this regard (2015-16) was the result of a shooting percentage binge.

So, he’s not a shooter, he’s not a point-producer outside of the power play, and he’s not a peripheral stat-stuffer. It seems those drafting him inside the top-100 are hoping that he spends the majority of the season beside Tarasenko and that his power-play prowess will translate to the Blues. Keep in mind that the Blues had a top-10 PP last year by goals per minute and the only players with at least 20 PPPs were Tarasenko (22) and Kevin Shattenkirk (20, and he’s gone). I am not expecting him to produce half his points on the PP again and that makes him an easy pass anywhere near an 85th overall ranking.

9. Artturi Lehkonen finished inside the top-25 forwards in individual shot attempts per 60 minutes at five-on-five last year, sandwiched between Jack Eichel and Jason Pominville. He probably won’t get feature minutes this year but now might be the time to trade for him (somewhat) on the cheap in dynasty leagues.    

10. Shayne Gostisbehere led all defensemen in PP ice time per game. Those who read my Philadelphia Ramblings know how much that team relies on the power play and I don’t see that changing this year. There may be concerns that Ivan Provorov can eventually supplant Ghost but the latter should come at a much better draft day value than he did in 2016.    

11. The league-leader in primary assists per 60 minutes at five-on-on-five last year wasn’t Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, Victor Hedman, or Roman Josi. In fact, it was Tyson Barrie. Second place? A guy that the Canadiens wouldn’t sign to a one-year contract: Andrei Markov.    

12. Victor Hedman led all NHL defencemen in primary assists per 60 minutes of power-play time (minimum of 100 minutes). Second and third were Markov and Nathan Beaulieu, neither of whom are with the Montreal organization anymore.    

13. Michael Matheson finished inside the top-25 in shot attempts per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and inside the top-10 in shots on goal per 60. In Florida, he’s stuck behind Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle but he’s a name to keep in mind in deeper leagues, or re-draft leagues if either of those skaters suffers an injury.

14. Yes, Rickard Rakell definitely won’t shoot 18.6 percent again this year, which was a big reason why he got to 33 goals in just 71 games. Lest we forget, however, that he scored 20 goals in 72 games the year before shooting a much more manageable 11.8 percent. He’s played three full seasons now, averaging a 13.7 percent shooting rate. If he can play 75 games next year at the same shot/game rate as 2016-17 and that average shooting rate, he can still be a 25-goal guy.

Maybe there is some reticence as to where he slots in the lineup but he won’t play on the checking line with Ryan Kesler and I cannot fathom the coaching staff sticking him in the bottom-six. That would seemingly leave him on Ryan Getzlaf ’s line for the majority of the season, a good spot to be if you want to score goals.

One issue I can see is the power-play production, as he is likely stuck behind Getzlaf, Kesler, and Corey Perry in the PP pecking order. Should they decide to run a traditional three-forward, two-defensemen power-play setup as they did last year, that would leave him on the outside looking in on the top PP unit. He could replace Perry at times like he did in 2016-17 but it likely is not enough for him to reach his fantasy potential, and could get worse if Perry finds his scoring touch again.

With all that out of the way, if Rakell is indeed routinely drafted around the top-100, it’s a spot where all players have issues in their player profile. If your fantasy roster needs goals, though, he’s a good bet to take.

15. Something for keeper leaguers to keep in the ol’ memory bank: Henrik Zetterberg only plans to stick around for another two more seasons and plans to forego the final two years of his contract.

It’s easy to project Zetterberg for a point decline in 2017-18 after his point total increased by 18 in 2016-17. What’s really ironic about that overall increase is that his power-play point total actually decreased from 24 in 2015-16, to 15 in 2016-17. So, we’re talking about a 27 even-strength point increase from a 36-year-old. Sure, his shooting percentage increased by 2.5 percent but his point increase was mainly from assists. It's also worth mentioning that Zetterberg cranked up the production during the second half, scoring 40 points in his last 41 games. So, it's fair to say that he was on a few winning fantasy teams last season.

A look at Zetterberg’s most frequent line combinations shows considerable time with Tomas Tatar. His chemistry with Tatar seems to be a significant factor for the reversal of his age-related decline, as he spent far less time with Tatar in 2015-16. The benefit didn’t seem to be mutual, however, as Tatar’s point total over each of the last two seasons has basically remained the same.

Assuming Zetterberg sticks with Tatar, I would project only a minor point decrease from Zetterberg but not a massive one. But one piece of news that Zetterberg owners will need to keep track of is the status of Tatar, who underwent offseason shoulder surgery with a recovery time of four to six months. Tatar is still projected to be ready to start the season, though.

16. The Lightning was derailed with injuries last season, and then Ben Bishop sustained his own lower-body ailment before ultimately being traded. It was a rough run for the netminder and his .910 save percentage and 2.54 GAA were both his worst marks since establishing himself as a full-time start in 2013-14.

Things are looking up entering 2017-18, though. Dallas is a much better fantasy setup than Bishop found himself in last year and the Stars project to provide plenty of goal support for their 6-7 goalie. With a track record of success, Bishop is a ripe candidate to rebound and he should last deeper into drafts this fall than in years past.

17. It's not often that a defenseman flirts with a 50-point campaign and it's generally viewed as a letdown. However, John Klingberg struggled to find his footing after long-time defense partner Alex Goligoski relocation to the Coyotes. Additionally, the entire Dallas team struggled and had to endure a number of significant and long-term injuries.

Still, Klingberg posted 49 points and finished the season in strong form with five goals and 18 points over his final 25 games. The Stars brought in a number of reinforcements to insulate their high-end talents, so Klingberg could be in line for a career year.

18. John Tavares recently discussed an offseason thumb surgery he underwent. Of particular note, he aggravated the thumb injury in January and played through it. Tavares said there was a multiple-week period when the injury was bothering him but it didn't seem to impact his performance. He recorded 34 points – 12 goals – through 35 games following the injury, which included a seven-game stretch with four tallies and seven assists immediately following the game in Boston when he sustained the injury.

The Tavares watch is officially on and it will be really interesting to see what the Islanders do this season. The organization is loaded with young talent, has two capable NHL goaltenders, and a bevy of picks in next season's draft. There is an opportunity to push all in around Tavares, or further stock the prospects cupboard by unloading him. His $5.5 million salary won't be a significant burden considering a salary dump would likely need to be dealt back to the Islanders.

19. It seems unlikely that Jakub Jerabek will have a prominent role out of the gate with Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, Mark Streit, David Schlemko and Karl Alzner all in tow. Jordie Benn, Brandon Davidson and Joe Morrow are also in the mix.

It would make sense to let Jerabek acclimatize to the North American game – and the continent itself – in the AHL to start the season. He would then be a potential addition to the lineup if injuries struck or he proved ready for the NHL. The 26-year-old defenseman is coming off a 34-point showing through just 59 games in the KHL, so there is definitely some offensive upside. It also should not surprise if Jerabek had a stretch or two of fleeting fantasy value this year.

20. When Brad Marchand reached 37 goals in 2015-16, at first glance, it seemed like an aberration. A 27-year-old never having surpassed 30 goals, and who only managed more than 25 goals once, suddenly knocking on the door of 40 goals? Was this a one-time thing, or the next Joe Pavelski? I was skeptical, and basically wrote off Marchand at his ADP for the 2016-17 season.

And then he scored 39 goals and managed over a point-per-game.

To be clear, this was never about Marchand’s talent. The problem was that he was never, ever, given a chance to shine on the power play. Over the five seasons from 2010-15, Marchand was 34th in the NHL in goals scored with 116. Of all the players in the top-50, he had the fewest power-play goals (14) – only he, Anze Kopitar (17), and Blake Wheeler (18) had fewer than 20. He also had the highest goal total of any player given fewer than 17 minutes a game.

Marchand and Patrice Bergeron are legitimately one of the top duos in the league at both ends of the ice. They had been at five-on-five for a few years and finally got to show their chemistry with the man advantage last year, as well. The point of all this is to keep in mind that we’re all at the mercy of whims of each team’s coach. Betting on talent in fantasy hockey drafts is usually not a bad idea but it’s all for naught if the coach doesn’t view the player in the same way you do (Alex Galchenyuk and Brandon Saad are recent examples).   

Have a good week, folks!!