Heading into last night’s slate of games, all but five of the top 17 scorers (those with 13 points and up) were from the Eastern Conference. In fact, only two of the top eight (15 points plus) point getters are from the Western Conference. This is great if your fantasy team’s forwards and defensemen are more East than West, but if your goaltending demographic resides more on the right side of the map, then you might be less than happy at this point in the season.Let’s unmask some of those players from the Eastern Conference who currently sit amongst the top scorers and see if their performance is for real (treat) or will ultimately regress (trick) as the season progresses.

I was on the fence with where to rank Kuznetsov heading into this year’s draft. Two seasons ago, he broke out in a big way, registering 77 points. Last year’s 59 points was a bit of a letdown. Which Kuznetsov was going to come to play in 2017-18?

Last year, both Justin Williams and Marcus Johansson received more power play ice time than Kuznetsov. This season, the Caps power play is exactly what you would expect; Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie and John Carlson. During Kuznetsov’s breakout season in 2015-16, his primary linemates were Justin Williams and Andre Burakovsky. Last year’s disappointing campaign saw him line up mostly with Williams and Marcus Johansson. So far this year, he’s spending the majority of his even-strength shifts with Alexander Ovechkin and Jakub Vrana while receiving about two minutes of ice time per game more than last season.

Trick or Treat? Sugary sweet treat

Mark Stone

With 12 points in as many games, is it too early to start the annual discussion about whether Stone is a lock for 70 points?

Last year, he finished with 54 points in 71 games, a 62-point pace. In the preceding two campaigns, he recorded 61 and 64 points. The 25-year-old will be a restricted free agent at the conclusion of this season, but I don’t see his contract status as a prime motivator. By the end of the season, Hands of Stone will end up squarely in the 60-65 point range once again.

Trick or Treat? Mild trick

Vladislav Namestnikov

I named Namestnikov as one of my Sleeper Picks (Eastern Conference) for the Dobberhockey guide: “If he can find some chemistry with fellow Russian Nikita Kucherov, in what is a contract year for Namestnikov, then he could turn out to be a sneaky late-round addition on draft day.”

More than 80 per cent of his even-strength shifts have been with Kucherov and Steven Stamkos. Combine that with the fact that he’s now averaging just north of 18 minutes of ice time per match, including 3:30 on the man advantage. With 13 points in his first 13 games this season, he is on pace to obliterate his 35-point career high.

Trick or Treat? Tasty treat as long as he stays in this situation

Josh Bailey

He broke out in a big way last year with 56 points after recording 32 the season before.

After starting the 2017-18 campaign with two points in five games, Bailey has a seven game, 12-point streak on the go.

The 28-year-old has NHL seasons of 25, 35, 28, 32, 19 (in 38 games), 38, 41, 32 and 56 points. Including last night’s contest, Bailey has 14 points in 12 games and even though he isn’t playing with John Tavares, he is averaging nearly three minutes of power play time per game. Another factor that might be at play is that this is a contract year.

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Trick or Treat? More trick than treat

Mikhail Sergachev

I’ll admit, I did not see this kind of offense coming this early in his career. Sir Gachev has 11 points in 13 games this season, but is averaging only 13:19 minutes per game, including 1:41 on the power play. Over his last seven games, he’s averaging closer to 15 minutes per game and has nine points during that stretch.

I’m kind of regretting trading him (and Jacob Markstrom) for P.K. Subban in my deep dynasty roto league this off-season and today, in the Dobberhockey Experts league, I received a trade offer of Sergachev for my Ryan Suter straight up. I will reject that offer, but only after much consideration. One thing that could work against him this year, is that if he plays 40 games (regular season or playoffs), the Canadiens get to keep their 2018 second round draft pick.

Trick or Treat? At this stage of the young jedi’s career, it’s a trap…I mean trick

John Tavares

He’s baaaaack. JT has not performed to expectations over the last couple of seasons, recording 66 and 70 points after hitting for 86 in 2014-15. This year started with three points (all in one game) over his first seven contests. Then the player we all expected turned up, recording a dozen points, nine of them goals in only five games.

Interestingly, Tavares is an unrestricted free agent following this season. The opportunity to sign a very long contract for a massive amount of money is not providing any added motivation for the recent surge in offense, right? Just a coincidence I’m sure.

Trick or Treat? Clearly a treat that had lost its taste and got it back

Sean Couturier

With two tallies in last night’s contest, Couturier now has 15 points in 12 games. This is what happens when you spend 80 per cent of your even-strength shifts with Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek.

Back in 2015-16, Couturier scored at a 51-point pace with 39 points in 63 games. If he can stay on the top line, he has a legitimate shot at surpassing the 40-point mark for the first time in his NHL career.

Trick or Treat? Treat that could turn into a trick with a line change

Thanks for reading. Happy Halloween.

4 Comments

christian 2017-10-31 at 20:01Log in to Reply

Couturier played on the first power play unit last game with Giroux, Simmonds, Voracek etc … If he sticks there the whole season I believe he can have a breakout year similar to kuznetsov from a couple of years ago.
- jaybird934 2017-10-31 at 21:58Log in to Reply
  
  Yeah this is the second time I’ve read the baffling “has a chance to surpass 40 points” analysis on this site. As someone who picked him up and used him as trade bait in both my leagues, I really have no interest in what he does…but, back to the point: He has currently has 15 points in only 12 games. Last year he basically averaged .5 ppg (ever so slightly higher). If he has an unlikely sudden regression in BOTH skill and circumstance (linemates, etc) to become identical to the player we saw last year, he would still expect to score 35 more points in his remaining 70 games. Adding that to the 15 he already has puts him on pace for 50, even in what seems the most conservative possible view of his ROS. So unless I’m missing something I’d say 50 is somewhat likely and 60 is possible.
  - The Comish 2017-10-31 at 23:10Log in to Reply
    
    Six straight seasons of 39 points or less will give some people pause. His regression won’t be in skill, but if he’s taken off that line, he most certainly won’t be anywhere near the point per game plus pace he is currently on. He’s been put in a great spot and is taking advantage of it. No doubt he’s going to hit career highs this season, FINALLY surpassing the 40 point plateau.
    - christian 2017-11-03 at 13:12Log in to Reply
      
      The risk of losing his spot is minimal. The other options for first line center would be Filpulla or Lethera. Both are not first line centers. His only threat for regression is Giroux back at center. However, Grioux is having a great year at wing and that line is clicking. My bet is that Couturier stays there pretty much the whole year. I believe they traded Scheen in order to give more minutes to Couturier at center.