Only a few more weeks before draft season really picks up so make sure you’re prepped by picking up your copy of the Dobber Fantasy Guide.

There are a few more teams from the Metro to get through and as we see some stability in ADPs it’ll be time to start taking a deeper look at optimal roster construction through positional arbitrage opportunities.  Stay tuned.

We’ll be digging into the Columbus Blue Jackets this week, a team that would be much more fun to analyze if it weren’t for their star player wanting out of Columbus.

Like for the Wild West series, the ranks are based on a 12 team head-to-head league using the categories of goals, assists, power play points, shots, hits and blocks for forwards/defensemen and wins, saves, save percentage and goals against average for goalies. Player eligibility for this series is based on Yahoo, and draft ranks are based on average draft positions compiled from Yahoo, ESPN and CBS by FantasyPros.  2018-2019 ADPs are up if you couldn’t tell!

Check out yesterday’s column by Chris Kane on the St. Louis.

Recap 

Columbus came in tied with the New Jersey Devils with 97 points in the Metro last year. The team dropped their power play conversion rate significantly from 2016 and had a rather pronounced effect on the production of Cam Atkinson and Zach Werenski. The second half of the year saw Columbus rebound on the power play and as a result Atkinson significantly picked up his production. More on Atkinson later on. 

The issue with Columbus heading into next year is that star Artemo Panarin is looking like he wants out of Columbus to experience the lifestyle of another NHL city. For this reason I’m bearish on Columbus players, it seems like it is too much risk to waste a pick on Pierre-Luc Dubois if he’s going to be without a top-20 winger. You’ll need to monitor things closely as the season gets closer.

Undervalued

Artemi Panarin – Current ADP 43 – Last year Panarin was drafted in the lower 30s and probably due to his contract situation his ADP has increased this year.   Regardless of where Panarin plays he should be able to produce value from that ADP, expect a point per game pace, draft with confidence.  

Pierre-Luc Dubois– Current ADP 177 – Dubois grabbed the number-1 center spot quickly last year.  He meshed well with Panarin and he will be ready to increase his point totals closer to the 70-point range provided Panarin is in town.  Monitor the Panarin situation closely ahead of your draft because Dubois is tied directly to the Breadman. At his current draft position he could be a league-winner if you invest in other positions first knowing that Dubois will be there at the end of your draft. 

Cam Atkinson– Current ADP 83 – If it feels like I’m on repeat with the Panarin situation you’re probably right.   Unfortunately Atkinson also is tied to Panarin and falls into the same situation in terms of expected production with/without the Breadman.  Atkinson had a tough start to the year but was able to pick it up the fourth quarter of the season.

As with Dubois, monitor any Panarin news closely – Atkinson’s shot volume and opportunity share are worth investing in with the 83^rd overall pick.

Overvalued

Seth Jones– current ADP 49– Jones was hands down one of the best values and was surely a league-winner for many teams last year. His shot volume exploded this year going from the 150s to 249 in roughly the same number of games. The volume helped keep his shooting percentage in line with career averages and is more than repeatable for a player of his skill level.  His primary assist percentage exceeded the 60% threshold that has been shown to be a consistent metric for producing future success. Jones is currently being drafted as the ninth blueliner coming off the board, given the risk Panarin poses to the entire lineup I think Jones is a gamble at this draft position. You’ll need everything to fall your way in order for the pick to work out.  Why not just draft Gostisbehere, Krug, or Barrie 10 picks later.

Zach Werenski– current ADP 121– Werenski fell flat on his face after a remarkable rookie campaign.  He was unable to produce value from a mid-50s ADP, this was due to accession of Seth Jones as the teams PP quarterback. Werenski lost nearly a minute of PP time per game.  Since fantasy hockey is all about collecting the players seeing the largest share of power play ice time, there is little reason to invest any draft capital in him.  What happens if the recent trend continues? Werenski is being drafted ahead of Ristolainen, Shattenkirk, Butcher, and Fowler. Don’t let ADP fool you he’s being drafted too high for his opportunity share. Also most of his value comes from his ability to put the puck in the net, what happens if he takes a step back and only scored 11 goals with a 6% shooting percentage?

Sergei Bobrovsky – Current ADP 30 – Bob was king last year, producing excellent value for those that spent their 20^th overall pick on him he ended up top-10 in player rankings.  He excelled in both situations in high danger areas. His ability to repeat his success in the high danger areas will be difficult.  The biggest thing working against him is that if Panarin is traded the team in front of him takes a rather large step back in terms of their ability to provide run support.  Bob will undoubtedly be one of the first five goalies off the board; given the uncertainty of the team I would be hesitant to invest that much draft capital in Bobrovsky this year.

Sources: Hockey-reference.com, Naturalstattrick, Corsica.hockey, Frozen Pool