Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on very active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding everyone how great of a resource the Forums are, especially now that the season is paused. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get separate write-ups on the main site and are also covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of Alex MacLean’s weekly Capped column.

As a reminder, you can access the forum thread on which the question is based by clicking on the “Topic” for each question.

Topic #1 – In a 20 team dynasty league counting G, A, PTS, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK, FOW and starting 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 7D, 2 UTIL, and 2 G, is Mitch Marner and Brayden Point too much to give in a trade to obtain Connor McDavid?

The old adage is the side that wins a trade usually is the one that receives the best player as part of the deal; and there are few – if any – players in fantasy better than McDavid. But the reality is there are indeed circumstances, as well as packages of players, where giving up McDavid in a trade could be the right move.

After seeing his scoring pace increase in each of his NHL seasons, Marner's rate stayed virtually the same for 2019-20, at 93 points. And although he is blessed to be part of a high scoring team like the Leafs, one drawback is there is so much talent surrounding him that it makes getting a point on a goal all the more difficult. And as Marner's scoring has risen, his IPP has dropped slightly in each of the past two seasons. So I think we're in WYSIWYG territory with Marner at this stage, and that's 90-95 points with decent peripherals for a high scorer.

Point's situation is concerning. After creating a super line with him, Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov in 2018-19, only to see the team exit the playoffs in the first round, the team opted to spread around its offense at times. The result was less than a point per game scoring for Point. Also, Point's big numbers in 2018-19 came on an unsustainably high shooting percentage. As such, I think Point is likely a 75-85 point player going forward.

As for McDavid, he just keeps getting better, having seen his scoring rate increase every season he's been in the NHL, and landing at 1.52 points per game for 2019-20. And McDavid had just as much success (28 points in 19 games) after he stopped skating with Leon Draisaitl at ES and was sharing the ice with the likes of Zack Kassian, Josh Archibald, Tyler Ennis, and Andreas Athanasiou. So yeah, McDavid is superb and still might be getting better.

Let's look at the league specifics. A total of 240-280 forwards are in active line-ups. That is a lot. The question is whether that makes it so having the best player in McDavid is better than having two players a notch or two lower. Honestly, it might come down to positional eligibility. We know McDavid is only eligible as a center, the deepest fantasy position; however, Marner is a winger, a position with a lot less scoring depth, and Point usually eligible at center and wing. That might be what tips the scales toward the trade not only representing a suitable price to pay for McDavid but being the winning side of the deal, at least on paper.

Topic #2 – In a 20 team keeper counting G, A, PTS, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK and FOW as categories, how would the following centers be ranked in terms of value: Tyler Seguin, Sean Couturier, Sean Monahan?

I know I said Marner might be turning into a WYSIWYG player, but Couturier already is one, with a scoring rate in the 70s, PPPts in the teens, and a little under three SOG per game. Until this season, that would put him last, as Seguin was a point per game very high volume SOG plus high PPPt player and Monahan had just broken out and was poised to perhaps get even better. Then 2019-20 happened, which saw Seguin score at his lowest rate in almost a decade and Monahan post his lowest rate since his rookie campaign.

The concerns with Seguin are he's not so great as to be able to score without assistance from his wingers, a collection of old (Joe Pavelski, Alexander Radulov, Corey Perry) and broken down (Jamie Benn) players. What we saw from Seguin this season is likely below what we should expect notwithstanding his poor support, as after all his shooting percentage was unsustainably low; however, a much more than 70 points might be unrealistic.

As for Monahan, at just 25 it was very strange to see his numbers take such a huge hit, although the contemporaneous slump of Johnny Gaudreau likely had a lot to do with it. Still, Monahan took far fewer shots, and also had a lower IPP than normal. The takeaway is likely Monahan isn't as bad as what we saw from him this season but also not as good as his 2018-19 numbers would indicate. So does that put him in the same boat as Seguin? Yes; but he also is three years younger and doesn't have a winger corps full of old, broken down players. Then again, Seguin, even at his worst, is a high volume shooter; and if Dallas doesn't find success with its less offensively focused approach of this season, the team might open things up more in 2020-21.

As suggested in the forum thread, differences between them are such that name value might be the factor that determines actual value. And poolies are more likely to see Seguin's 2019-20 as a fluke bad season and Monahan's 2018-19 as a fluke strong one. And they'll see Couturier for what his is. So although Couturier is probably the safest bet for 2020-21, I might rather own Seguin, whom I can try to turn into other assets based on his name value or whom I can keep and just maybe end up with better stats than Couturier. And Monahan I'd probably put in last place since he doesn't have the name value or downside consistency of Couturier.

Topic #3 – In a 20 team keeper league starting 13F, 7D, 2G, who should be kept – as opposed to being traded or dropped – among Connor Hellebuyck, MacKenzie Blackwood, Elvis Merzlikins, and Kaapo Kahkonen, with the knowledge that a goalie can be stashed in the minors until he plays 60 NHL games and that others in the league rejected previous trade offers for Blackwood?

To me, Hellebuyck is the best fantasy goalie to own in the NHL, as when I did digging on him in a special Goldipucks column there were indications his superb season was perhaps just the tip of the iceberg. Don't deal him, as the return would not be enough; and of course, don't dare drop him. Merzlikins won't need to be promoted until he hits the 60 game mark, by which time not only should we know how he fits in the goalie pecking order in Columbus, but also, and just as importantly, we should know whether Blackwood is indeed a solid netminder as well as more about Kahkonen and the Minnesota crease.

Is there a case to be made for trading Merzlikins now though? He wouldn't be the first goalie to make a big splash and then never come close to duplicating the magic. Moreover, poolies likely will remember how great he played for parts of 2019-20, and, in turn, assign him a good bit of value now. But let's not forget it's now been months since Merzlikins had a lights out stretch; and with the passage of time, memories fade. Even still, I think it can't hurt to try and dangle Merzlikins in trade now to see if he can fetch a return that's high enough to risk missing out on his future potential. Plus, that could uncloud the keeper picture significantly, as it would just be Hellebuyck and Blackwood, with all of 2020-21 to see how Kahkonen shakes out.

Topic #4 – In a deep league with scoring as G (3), A(2), ST (1), SOG/HIT/BLK (0.1), W (4), SO (4), SV (0.2), L (-2), which package of players is a better return in trade for Andrei Vasilevskiy and Ty Smith for a team that's rebuilding – (1) Juuse Saros, Kailer Yamamoto, Quinn Hughes, or (2) Ilya Sorokin, Miro Heiskanen, Victor Olofsson?

Package #1 represents more of a "bird in hand" return yet still with rebuild upside, as Saros and Hughes are farther along than Sorokin and Heiskanen. That being said, the potential of the latter two is on a par with that of the former duo. But in fantasy I think the surer thing is better than the untapped potential; so based on these players, the advantage is with the first package.

What about Olofsson vs. Yamamoto? On the one hand, Olofsson put up a PPG per game total higher than any rookie in recent memory, even more than some guy named Alex Ovechkin. But he also did so at 24 years of age; and when we look at rookies who made a splash at that age or older, we see Artemi Panarin, but also guys like Ken Hodge Jr., Tony Granato and Joe Juneau. In other words, Olofsson could go downhill from here.

As for Yamamoto, he seemed like a great fit as the third member of a line with Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins; however, while I'm pretty sure those two will stay joined at the hip who's to say if Yamamoto will stick with them. Plus, whereas Olofsson's PP1 status is a virtual lock, Yamamoto saw essentially no PP time at all to end the season. Still, though, Yamamoto is several years younger and would seem like a lock to figure somewhere in the top six picture on the Oilers. To me that gives him the edge over the older Olofsson, and, in turn, sells me even more on the first package.

Topic #5 – In a 16 team league with each team having 28 players on its roster and there being a maximum of two goalie starts per day, should a team which has MacKenzie Blackwood, Philipp Grubauer, Robin Lehner, and Joonas Korpisalo trade Korpisalo for Filip Zadina?

To me, this hinges on what is likely to happen with Zadina, who, unfortunately for my analysis, is only 20 and has played just 37 total games. One key, however, is he was seemingly starting to hit his stride when 2019-20 was halted, as he had six points in his last 11 games and fired 28 SOG. He also saw 17:47 to 20-51 of ice time per game in his last four contests. Those SOG and ice times metrics were well higher than his season-long totals, which were brought down by games earlier in the season when he took the ice for what was usually 12:00 to 14:00 per game if even that. He sounds to me a lot like a player who'll be in the top six for 2020-21. Still, though, it'll be for Detroit, a team that likely won't make great strides. But they can score, and did so when Anthony Mantha was healthy. I think Zadina could climb to 50 points this coming season, and his ceiling is very high.

As for Korpsalo, because he missed time due to injury and Elvis Merzlikins had a magical run of a few weeks, many forget that it was Korpisalo who had a higher percentage of quality starts. And although Merzlikins is signed through 2022-23 (as is Korpisalo) for almost 50% more per season, who's to say Merzlikins wasn't a one-season wonder? Korpisalo has spent his entire career with the organization and their confidence in him was such that when Sergei Bobrovsky left they did not go out and obtain another top netminder, plus they turned to him for the play-in games.

As for the other netminders on this person's team, I've written in my columns many times that I do not think Grubauer is poised for a good 2020-21 and likely will cede the #1 (or at least 1A) goalie spot to Pavel Francouz. Blackwood seemed to show he's a capable rearguard; however, New Jersey might be a team that struggles for several seasons to come. Lehner is the wild card since he might go to a squad that anoints him their clear cut #1, or he may be forced to accept a 1A or 1B role depending on what the UFA market bears.

My advice would be to make the deal, but trade Grubauer instead and try to get more in return. I see that as a win-win. If the deal can only be Korpisalo for Zadina though, I still do it since I believe Zadina is a season or two away from great things and Korpisalo likely won't be on a par with him after 2020-21.

Topic #6 – How do the following defensemen rank in terms of points in the next three seasons: Noah Dobson, Erik Brannstrom, Evan Bouchard, Bowen Byram, Rasmus Sandin, Ville Heinola?

Brannstrom, Bouchard and Byram have the pedigree to be outstanding fantasy defensemen. But I fear none of them will reach anywhere near their full potential in the next few seasons, as for Brannstrom there's Thomas Chabot standing in the way, for Bouchard there's Oscar Klefbom and for Byram, there's Cale Makar and even Samuel Girard. I believe their teams will bring them along slowly unless they play so well as to force the team's hand; however, to do so they'd need the opportunity, which they likely won't get due to the aforementioned players. It's a chicken and egg situation, and one that does not bode well for any of the trios in the next three seasons.

I like Sandin……if Tyson Barrie signs elsewhere. If Barrie stays in Toronto, he gets top offensive deployment, with Morgan Reilly being the #1 d-man. A comparison I'd draw is Mike Matheson. Keith Yandle gets the plum offensive deployments and Aaron Ekblad is the workhorse, leaving Matheson as sort of a third wheel. But just as Matheson would benefit if Yandle were out of the picture, so too would Sandin if Barrie goes elsewhere. He's the risk/reward pick.

Dobson is intriguing, as the New York Islanders have not found anyone who can act as a true PP QB. They tried Devon Toews last season, and he didn't do anything to lock down the job. So my guess is they give Dobson a shot there; and he has the talent to take the ball and run with it. I think that within the next three seasons he'll have assumed that role and be producing at least a point per every other game, limited only by the low tempo Islanders offense.

Heinola played well in the World Juniors and should be given a chance to make the Jets for the 2020-21 season. And although Neal Pionk stepped up and laid a strong claim to being the true offensive defenseman for the team, Heinola, on paper, is at least as talented. Plus, the Jets do not have a strong blueline, so he should be able to make the team and my hunch is in two or three seasons he'll have a big role and will be producing well.

So for points ranking over the next three years, I'll go Dobson, Heinola, Bouchard, Brannstrom, and Byram. Sandin would be second if Barrie leaves Toronto, or fourth if Barrie stays.

Topic #7 – What does the future hold for Matt Murray; and in a 16 team league with categories of G (3), A (2), +/- (1), Hit (0.1), SOG (0.1), BS (0.1), PPP (1), W (4), L (-2), SO (4), SV (0.2), GA (-1) would he be worth swapping for Robin Lehner, Philipp Grubauer or MacKenzie Blackwood?

I think Matt Murray is indeed Cam Ward 2.0, namely a goalie who not only had early career success but did so on the biggest stages. That anointed Ward a #1 goalie and has kept him one even after if became fairly apparent that he was not going to a great goalie over the long haul. I think the Pens go into this season prepared to turn over the #1 reins to Jarry, in which case Murray could be moved before 2021-22 or end up on Seattle, with Murray likely having the insider's edge for the starting gig. But wherever he ends up, I see him doing what Ward did, and that's disappointing. After all, Murray had a quality start percentage of 42.1% or lower in two of the past three seasons, and that's not the type of inconsistency that can be tolerated from a true #1 goalie.

I'd certainly deal him for Lehner, who we know at worst will be a high-quality 1B goalie but could be a true #1 or 1A depending on where he signs. Blackwood too seems to be coming into his own and should be there as New Jersey gets much better – in my opinion – quickly. As for Grubauer, I've said it in my columns many times – plus above – that the numbers point to him being vulnerable to losing the starting gig in Colorado to Pavel Francouz. Still, though, Grubauer right now likely has more value than Murray, so I'd deal Murray for Grubauer but only if one were to turn around and move Grubauer for someone else before next season. As for whom I'd prefer, it's Lehner or Blackwood, and I'd do Lehner if I wanted risk/reward, whereas Blackwood I'd label as the safer bet.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The mailbag is emptier than usual, which means it's a great time to send me your fantasy hockey questions. So if you have a question about your fantasy team or fantasy hockey in general, send it to me and I'll be able to answer here it in just a couple of weeks. To get questions to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.