The Detroit Red Wings moved on from Jimmy Howard, the guy who had been more-or-less their starter for the last decade. It opened up a spot in net but with the plethora of goalies available, it wouldn't be hard to replace him. The Wings did just that by signing Thomas Greiss to a two-year contract carrying an AAV of $3.6M.

To me, Detroit are one of the most interesting teams in the league. They have a really good top line, lots of good prospects, and their bad contracts are expiring/being bought out (Ericsson, Abdelkader). They are probably another year from truly making noise as far as playoff contention is concerned, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Detroit's big issue remains the blue line. Filip Hronek is probably the best option in totality, and he's likely a 4/5 on good teams. Marc Staal, Danny DeKeyser, Alex Biega… these aren't great options at either end of the ice. They were in the bottom-third of the league last year by expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5, and bottom-third of the league by high-danger shot attempts allowed/60 at 5-on-5. Better forwards will help team defence, but the actual defence remains too big of a problem to say that things will be considerably better for Greiss than they were for Howard.

So, what about Greiss?

What does Detroit get

Greiss is a good goaltender. Like any goalie, he can have really good years (2015-16, 2018-19) and really bad years (2017-18). But when we look at his last five years in totality among regular goalies, these are his ranks among key metrics that aren't SV%/GAA (from Evolving Hockey for five years and Natural Stat Trick for three):

• Expected Goals Saved Above Average: 16/54
• Goals Saved Above Average: 23/54
• Total WAR: 17/54
• High-danger save percentage: 27/53

Depending on the metric, Greiss ranks anywhere from the top-half to the top-third of the league, and it's worth noting he had good years in New York before Barry Trotz arrived. Yes, he's much older now than he was five years ago (five years older, in fact!) but this is just to show that he wasn't simply a product of the Islanders' system. Age-related decline is another matter.

That decline is a real problem. Goaltenders like Henrik Lundqvist and Corey Crawford are rare, and it's why they're coveted. Greiss is not on their level as far as historical performance is concerned, and the only goalie aged 35 or older in 2019-20 that had a save percentage above .910 last year with at least 30 starts was Crawford himself. The year before? Also one, in Pekka Rinne. So, expecting Greiss to have a great fantasy season, or even a good fantasy season, at the age of 35 on a team that is still rebuilding is unlikely. Now, goalies have great seasons out of nowhere all the time, but relying on that is not a good idea.

This is a signing that provides short-term security until the team figures out their long-term goalie plan. Good for Greiss on getting a starting gig, but it's hard to see a lot of fantasy value here, even if he's a good goalie himself. He strikes me as a number-3 at best in 12-team leagues.

Who this helps

Semyon Varlamov

Who this hurts

Thomas Greiss

Jonathan Bernier

Calvin Pickard