Top 10 Keepers on the Bubble – 2020

Tom Collins

2020-11-09

Every fantasy season has highs and lows, but maybe nothing makes fantasy general managers more anxious than figuring out their keepers.

Almost all of us have been faced with the tough decision of who to drop, no matter how many players you can keep or how deep your roster.

I'm in a 12-team points-only pool where we keep 15 players of any position and two rookies. Technically speaking, one could keep 15 netminders if one chose. However, our top eight forwards, five defensemen and two goaltenders count in the final standings.

I have 12 for-sure keepers (consisting of six forwards, four defensemen and two netminders), which means I can only keep three of: Jonathan Marchessault, Evgenii Dadonov, Tomas Tatar, Ryan Strome, Eric Staal, Cam Atkinson, Pavel Buchnevich, Pekka Rinne, Ryan Suter, Oscar Klefbom and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Rinne and Klefbom are the only two I know I am dropping for sure, but it's still a tough call on who else to keep.

The only good thing about my quandary is we have a little extra wrinkle in the pool as we have an auction of dropped players. Any GM can bid on a dropped player using one of this year's draft picks. For example, if I drop Tatar, someone can bid 57th overall on him. Then someone else might bid 52nd. And so on. The winning bid gets Tatar, and I get the draft pick of the highest bid. It's a tight line to walk. Sometimes, you're better off dropping a more productive player in hopes of getting a better draft pick. There's also strategy as some GMs won't bid on players that would give their direct competition a better draft pick.

With the NHL season hopefully starting soon, there are GMs in many leagues faced with difficult keeper decisions. That's why we're having a bubble keeper week here at Dobber Hockey: To talk about players that aren't guaranteed keepers.

Below are 10 of the top bubble players and why you should consider keeping them.

10. P.K. Subban

Remember all the hype surrounding the Devils last offseason? Almost everyone overvalued all of the Devils, and as such, almost every player was a disappointment. Maybe no one as much as Subban. However, I wouldn't be so quick to drop him just yet. He still provides value in banger leagues when it comes to PIM, hits, shots and blocked shots (admittedly not as much as he used to). I'm also not ready to concede his value for points. Last year was awful, but in 2018-19 he had a 40-point pace, and in 2017-18 he had a 59-point pace. I'd give him one more season before pulling the plug.

9. Josh Bailey

In each of the last four seasons, Bailey has reached at least a 52-point pace, including a ridiculous 78 points in 2017-18. To make him even more enticing for fantasy GMs, he had 20 points in 22 games to lead the Islanders in the postseason. He has mostly lined up with Anthony Beauvillier and Brock Nelson for the past year, and if you believe those two are going to break through with big seasons, then Bailey should benefit from that. The only issue is that he only contributes in points-only leagues, so his value is almost zilch in any other type of leagues.

8. Kyle Palmieri

What you see is what you get with Palmieri. He's been exceptionally consistent the last five seasons, with an 82-game point pace ranging from 54 to 58 points every year. He's also on the top power-play line and can flirt with 20 power-play points and 200 shots. I'm hopeful one of these seasons he can reach the 60-point plateau just so more fantasy general managers will give him more respect. There's something to be said for having a consistent producer on your fantasy squad.

7. Drake Batherson

If you drop Batherson this offseason, there's a good chance you'll never get him back. He's already proven everything he can in the AHL, with 116 points in 103 games there. All that's left is for him to prove he can produce in the NHL. I believe there's a couple of years before he hits his stride, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him toy with 50 points this year. His breakout year might be a year or two away, but you don't want to wait until next offseason when everyone will be salivating over him and he's the sexy breakout pick.

6. Matt Grzelcyk

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You'd be taking a bit of a chance on this guy, but it could pay off huge. Although his career high is 21 points, there's a good chance he could smash that number this upcoming season, all because of the power-play. There's some debate about whether Grzelcyk or Charlie McAvoy will get Torey Krug's spot, but in the past couple of seasons, whenever Krug was out of the lineup, Grzelcyk filled in.

5. Duncan Keith

Plenty of fantasy GMs believe that Adam Boqvist will have the inside track this season, but I'm going to keep beating the Duncan Keith drum as much as possible. Boqvist will be a great option in 2021 and beyond, but for this season, Keith should easily outperform Boqvist. Keith will be the main guy on the Hawks' power play, just like was down the stretch of the regular season and in the postseason. I believe Keith has a good shot of reaching a 45-point pace this campaign.

4. Jesse Puljujarvi

If you've used a keeper spot on Puljujarvi for the past couple of years, then you're going to keep him now that he's re-signed in Edmonton and will be in the Oilers' lineup. I believe it will take a few years until he's hit his stride in fantasy hockey, but this year will be the beginning of that. As a bonus, any type of hot start or anytime spent on a line with Connor McDavid will see his value skyrocket. If that happens, you could trade him if necessary to fill other holes on your roster.

3. Kirby Dach

Dach is going to be a star in the NHL, and there's a good chance we'll see that upside for a good chunk of this season. Even though his rookie season wasn't that impressive (eight goals and 23 points in 64 games), he was exquisite in the postseason where he finished with six points in nine games. More importantly, he was also on the top power-play unit and played at 5-on-5 with Patrick Kane. With the Hawks officially in a rebuild, expect to see more of that type of usage for Dach.

2. Jeff Petry

I was surprised not to see Petry on the bubble list as I believe he is a sure-fire keeper. In points-only pools, you know you can get a minimum of a 40-point season, which is generally the cut-off for defensemen keepers. In leagues with more categories, Petry is good for at least 170 shots, 170 hits and 100 blocked shots. He also chips in on the power play with about 10 power-play points per season. The only negatives against him are his plus/minus (he's only been a positive player twice in his career, with his high being a plus-three) and his giveaways. On the bright side, he's only missed a total of two games in his last four seasons.

1. Darnell Nurse

Nurse is pretty much everything you want in a defender in banger leagues. He can flirt with 10 goals and 40 points. He's good for about 55 PIM a season and about 200 shots a year. You can also count on 160 hits (although he was on pace for 199 last season) and 140 blocked shots. Brayden McNabb is the only defender to have as many blocked shots and hits in the last three years than Nurse, but McNabb doesn't have the offense. Nurse doesn't get enough power-play time but he will chip in with the odd power-play point. Similar to Petry, Nurse is a player you can count on to play every game.

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