Eastern Edge: Risers and Fallers in the East including Fabbri, Hornqvist, Suzuki – Part 2
Brennan Des
2020-12-01
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll continue looking at risers and fallers across teams in the Eastern Conference. This will be the second of four parts and we'll cover Detroit, Florida and Montreal. I know I originally said this series would run over three articles, but I got a little carried away and ended up going into more detail for each team than I originally intended, so we'll need an extra week to finish up.
In case you missed last week's article, the inspiration for this series came from Wild West writer Grant Campbell, who discussed risers and fallers in the Western Conference a few weeks ago. He highlighted players with rising fantasy value ('risers') and declining fantasy value ('fallers') from each team in the West. Risers are players that you'd want to keep on your fantasy roster, while fallers are players you may want to offload in the near future. I highly recommend you give Grant's article a read here!
Detroit
Risers – Anthony Mantha, Filip Hronek, Filip Zadina, Robby Fabbri
Fallers – Vladislav Namestnikov, Bobby Ryan
Mantha broke out in the second half of the 2018-2019 campaign, during which he posted 33 points in his final 38 games. He carried that momentum into the 2019-2020 season, tallying 38 points through 43 appearances – a 72-point pace! Injuries have prevented Mantha from showcasing his scoring prowess over a full 82-game season, so a portion of the fantasy hockey community hasn't yet recognized his true fantasy value. I don't think Mantha's past injuries or current play style make him more prone to future injuries, so I'm hoping he's able to stay healthy moving forward – ultimately leading to more games played, more points tallied, and rising fantasy value.
The Red Wings have a number of up-and-coming defensemen in their system, but Filip Hronek is currently their number-one option and should maintain that status for the next few years. Hronek has managed a 40-point pace through two years in the NHL. That level of production becomes all the more impressive when you consider the state of his team's offense, as Detroit averaged a league-worst 2.39 goals per game over the past two seasons. The 23-year-old defenseman saw a huge jump in responsibility between his rookie and sophomore season. His average ice-time jumped from 20 minutes in year one to 24 minutes in year two. He also took on a more prominent power-play role as his share of the team's total power-play time increased from 39-percent to 55-percent. Expect his fantasy value to rise as he and the team around him continue to improve.
I don't think you need to be convinced that Zadina's fantasy value will continue to increase over the coming years. The 6th overall pick of the 2018 draft displayed a penchant for goal-scoring in the QMJHL which carried into the AHL and is starting to show in the NHL. The Red Wings have allowed Zadina to develop at his own pace thus far and I think he'll see his role with the team gradually increase in the coming years as he continues to grow into his potential.
Fabbri has struggled to stay healthy during his first few years in the NHL, with injuries hindering his offensive production and overall development. All things considered, I think it's impressive that Fabbri scored at roughly a 45-point pace in three of his four NHL seasons. He's managed this level of offensive output without seeing traditional top-line minutes, so there's definitely room for growth if he's able to earn a bigger role. That remains a realistic possibility in Detroit – where offensive talent is scare and where the best players play the most minutes (Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi and Anthony Mantha each averaged ~19 or more minutes last year). If Fabbri is able to stay healthy over the next few years, his fantasy value will certainly be on the rise.
It is hard to see Namestnikov's offensive output coming close to the 58-point pace (44 points in 62 games) he tallied while riding shotgun beside Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos in Tampa Bay during the 2017-2018 campaign. He has hovered around the 35-point mark outside of that one amazing season and I think 35-40 points is what we should expect for him in Detroit.
Bobby Ryan's career got off to an incredible start, with four-straight 30-goal seasons between 2008 and 2012. Unfortunately, he's suffered numerous hand injuries in recent years and probably won't be able to reach those same goal-scoring totals again.
Florida
Risers – Vinnie Hinostroza, Frank Vatrano, Aaron Ekblad
Fallers – Patric Hornqvist
I feel as though Hornqvist has been overvalued in fantasy formats simply because he shared the ice with Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh. He was part of that star-studded power-play unit that included Crosby, Malkin, Phil Kessel and Kris Letang but his power-play production wasn't all that impressive. Through six seasons in Pittsburgh, only once did he manage more than 20 power-play points (2017-2018). His first year with the Penguins back in 2014-2015 remains his best in terms of offensive production, as he tallied 51 points in 64 games – a 65-point pace. Since then, he's scored at roughly a 50-point pace and it's hard to see that improving as he continues to experience the effects of age-related decline – effects which may be accelerated due to his injury-riddled career. He may get a shot alongside Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov at first, but I don't think he'll hold onto that role for long.
The departure of Evgeni Dadonov (and presumably Mike Hoffman) creates more room within Florida's top-six. As I alluded to earlier, I think Hornqvist eventually drops down to a depth role, allowing Florida's other forwards to take on more responsibility. Vinnie Hinostroza and Frank Vatrano are talented players who should see more significant roles in the near future. Vatrano has been a 40-point player in Florida while skating 15 minutes a night and seeing roughly a third of the team's total power play time. An increased opportunity could certainly lead to increased production for Vatrano. Hinostroza falls into a similar category as he too has scored at a 40-point pace despite seeing limited minutes. Hinostroza's fantasy value took a hit last season as his role was reduced significantly in Arizona, but I believe he'll bounce back when in a greater role with the Panthers.
Ekblad finally showcased some of his offensive ability last season as he tallied 41 points in 67 games – a 50-point pace. That output becomes all the more impressive when you consider he was seeing less than a third of the team's total power-play time and just six of his 41 points came with the man advantage. Ekblad should see more of a power-play role in the coming years as Keith Yandle gradually relinquishes his role with age-related decline presumably setting in.
Montreal
Risers – Nick Suzuki, Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Fallers – Artturi Lehkonen, Joel Armia
Suzuki had an excellent rookie campaign, tallying 41 points through 71 games through the 2019-2020 regular season – a 47-point pace. Optimism surrounding Suzuki's future only grew during the playoffs, where he put up seven points through 10 postseason games. More importantly, he was trusted in every high-stakes situation and demonstrated a level of poise and intelligence that is rarely seen in a first-year player. Suzuki arguably has the highest offensive ceiling of Montreal's forwards and could very well flirt with the 70-point mark within the next few years. The Canadiens have great forward depth and are expected to give all four lines plenty of ice time next season – a trend which may continue into future years. While that may prevent Suzuki from seeing traditional top line minutes, the fact that he's trusted in all situations should provide him with plenty of chances to score.
The meteoric rise of Suzuki has largely overshadowed Kotkaniemi's more gradual development. The Finnish center took great strides during the 2020 playoffs, showing obvious improvements in his skating which allowed him to be a much more physical and effective player. While he already has over 100 games of NHL experience, it's important to remember that he's just 20 years old and has plenty of time to develop into the talented top-six center he was projected to be. The Canadiens bolstered their winger depth during the offseason through the acquisitions of Josh Anderson and Tyler Toffoli, ensuring that Kotkaniemi will be playing with talented line mates even if he starts next season as Montreal's third-line center – behind Suzuki and Phillip Danault. Kotkaniemi's fantasy value will continue to increase in the coming years as he continues to earn a greater role with the team.
While the additions of Anderson and Toffoli should serve to benefit Montreal's centers, I fear it may be bad news for some of Montreal's wingers – namely Artturi Lehkonen and Joel Armia. Lehkonen had a promising rookie campaign which saw him tally 18 goals through 73 games while skating under 14 minutes a night. He wasn't able to improve on that production over the next three years despite seeing more ice time. At this point, the initial optimism surrounding Lehkonen's strong rookie season is quickly dissipating as it seems he'll be restricted to a depth role in Montreal for the foreseeable future. Armia's situation is a bit different as he enjoyed much more recent success. He posted a career-high 42-point pace last season while skating over 17 minutes a night (another career-high). While Armia is certainly a strong puck handler and shooter, he might have to settle into more of a depth role going forward as the Habs are likely to place their new acquisitions in positions to succeed, near the top of the lineup.