As we barrel towards a (hopeful) mid-January NHL start, the previews are rolling in. While I would recommend buying the 2020 Dobber Hockey Guide because that is everything we talk about across the site and a whole lot more all in on place, we're here to help the people that don't buy it as well.

In thinking about the season, one thing I always come back to is this: what do we do with the California teams? After being powerhouses basically the entire 2010s, all three franchises missed the playoffs and entered the lottery in 2019-20. Once predictions start rolling in, my assumption is that in a division with St. Louis, Colorado, Dallas, and Vegas, there won't be many people picking one of the lottery teams from last year supplanting one of those four teams for a playoff spot.

The first thing I will mention is that the three California teams are almost certainly going to be aligned in a division together with Arizona. Those four teams were in the bottom-10 last year by win percentage. Ostensibly, with eight-team divisions and four teams per division making playoffs, the three California teams plus Arizona seem to be likely candidates to miss the postseason.

So, there we have it. All neat and tidy.

Exceptttttttt…..

Except that we're going to have a shortened season; almost assuredly under 60 games. When looking at the 2019-20 season, this is where things stood at the end of Valentine's Day, when teams were in the 56- to 60-game mark, and where they were at the pause:

• Pittsburgh was fourth in the league by points percentage; they ended up seventh and without a RTP bye, where they were knocked out by Montreal.
• Four Eastern Conference teams were 1-4 in the standings; by the break, St. Louis and Colorado climbed into the top-4.
• Vegas went from sixth in the West and 17^th in the league (honestly) to third in the West and eighth in the league.
• Buffalo was in a playoff spot and Montreal was not. Those roles were reversed over the next month.
• The Canucks were fourth in the West with a bye, and fell to sixth.

None of this digs into individual performances, either. A month changes a lot and with less time to make up ground, combined with three-point games, it's going to make it even harder to overcome a slow start.

Even in an 82-game season, we see weird things happen. While I don't expect any of the California teams to make the playoffs outright, what if John Gibson is unbeatable for a couple months? What if a few of Los Angeles's deep prospect pool emerge? What if San Jose's top guns come back rested and healthy? These are all what-ifs and unlikely to all occur, but we've all watched hockey long enough to know that the unlikely occurs every season. And we get the added wrinkle of players/teams perhaps having to miss large chunks at a time as we've seen in the NFL and MLB.

So what would have to happen for one of the California teams to get a playoff spot, outside of pandemic-related issues?  Most stats from Natural Stat Trick.

Anaheim

It probably starts and ends with John Gibson here. Anyone who has read my stuff over the years knows how much I think of him and I do believe that if he's not the best goalie on the planet, he's on the podium. That is not just conjecture, either: by WAR/60 over the last three years among the 24 goalies who've faced at least 4000 shot attempts at even strength, he's first. Other measures are less favourable, like roughly top-third by HDSV%, but over the last couple years he's been faced with just an onslaught of high-danger shots (from HockeyViz):

Red is bad, and the darker the red, the more shots allowed. Maybe cover the slot, guys?

Beyond Gibson, the hope is the kids. None of them had great years last year, with Sam Steel having 22 points in 65 games, Troy Terry with 15 in 47, and Max Comtois being sent to the minors. They have others on the way like Zegras and Drysdale, but that initial triumvirate was supposed to get the ball rolling to the next generation of Ducks. If they can really break through and become reliable middle-six guys for the season, it would finally give the Ducks the forward depth they've been lacking for a few years. That, with a good year from Gibson, could shock a lot of people, especially in a division with many other weak(er) teams.

Los Angeles

The problem with the Kings, as it has been for many years, is not the defence; they finished last year allowing fewer goals/60 at 5-on-5 than teams like Pittsburgh, Vegas, Minnesota, and Carolina. They were basically the middle of the league in goals against/60 at all strengths. If that team defence can maintain for another season, it's good enough to get them heading to the playoffs.

In order to actually get to the postseason, though, they need to score. Despite the average-or-better defence, the team was 30^th in goals/60 at all strengths and 29^th at 5-on-5. Their goaltending could post a .925 next year and that level of scoring might not be enough. They need to do much better.

There are problems with that. They lost Tyler Toffoli via trade, and he averaged over 20 goals a season for six years. That is a lot of goals to lose for a team that doesn't score many. To take the next step, they not only need to replace those goals, but probably add about 30 more (over 82 games) on top of it. In a 60-game season, they probably need to find 40 goals internally to have a shot at the postseason.

This is why even though the Kings may have the best prospect pool in the league, they may not be very good in 2020-21. They can still put together a decent top line but there's no depth beyond that other than the prospects, so if all of Byfield/Kaliyev/Turcotte/Kupari aren't on the roster, I don't have a lot of faith for a playoff push.

Without the kids, the Kings need 20-goal seasons from the likes of Jeff Carter and Alex Iafallo to really be a threat. They also need Gabe Vilardi to turn the corner and Adrian Kempe to help. Of the three California teams, unless the Kings have their youngsters in the lineup, they seem to be the least likely to rebound from 2019-20.

San Jose

And now, to perhaps the most interesting team of the season.

It feels like a distant memory, but the 2018-19 Sharks were two games away from a Cup Final after beating out both Vegas and Colorado. That is why the 2019-20 Sharks turning into a pumpkin was such a huge surprise.

Injuries, I suspect, were a big part of it. The Sharks played 70 games, and this was the time missed:

• Erik Karlsson – 14 games
• Logan Couture – 18 games
• Tomas Hertl – 22 games

Their best defenceman missed 20 percent of the season and they had a stretch of 12 games in February where they were without both their top-2 centres. Karlsson has had a lengthy injury history but Couture had missed just 14 games over the prior three seasons combined while Hertl hadn't missed more than five games in four of his five prior seasons. Those two guys being healthy most of the year will go a long way into turning the team around.

We know goaltending is a horror show and I have doubts Devan Dubnyk can be much better, but he surely can't be much worse.

The question for the Sharks comes down to the blue line. From 2016 through 2019, Erik Karlsson had finished in at least the 80^th percentile of controlled zone exits, twice cracking the 95^th percentile. In 2019-20, that cratered to 55 percent:

That is a problem. Brent Burns turns 36 in March, Marc-Edouard Vlasic looks cooked, and Radim Simek is known more for his defensive prowess than offensive gifts. Even if Burns is still good, a Karlsson that isn't skating the puck out of the zone is a very ineffective Karlsson. He needs to do a lot more of that to generate offence and take pressure off his own zone.

While good goaltending could cure a lot here, we can't rely on that. I don't have a lot of concerns for San Jose's top-6, but I think the difference between good and great fantasy seasons, and probably a shot at a playoff entry, is whether Karlsson can look like the guy of 2-3 years ago rather than last year.