Ramblings – Nikita Gusev is getting jobbed. Plus goalie situations in CHI, ARI, DET and FLA (Mar 15)

Dobber

2021-03-15

For the 13th time in the last 14 years, I released the annual Midseason Guide. This was the first time it was released in, uh, March though. Friday it came out, complete with projections, line combinations, goaltender analysis, peripherals, NCAA and Euro free agents. And much more. Pick it up here.

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Two goalie situations I am keep an eye on right now:

  1. Arizona. Adin Hill had two starts now, neither were Quality Start but also neither were Really Bad Starts (RBS). They were just – meh. Statistically. On Friday Hill was great until the wheels came off in the second half of the third. This is another Lankinen situation in that we have a mediocre goalie on a team with great need. All they need to do is keep the high-danger shots to a minimum and a mediocre goalie can put up great numbers. Names like Osgood, Howard, Crawford, Jones and Elliott have been doing it for years. Jordan Binnington is doing it right now. All it takes are a few hot games from Hill, a couple of poor ones from Antti Raanta, and an extended stay on the shelf for Darcy Kuemper and things could really pay off for Hill owners. It was just a few years ago when Louis Domingue was in this situation for this very team, and did quite well with it for a dozen games.
  • Kevin Lankinen and Malcolm Subban. Remember, this all started with Subban giving up five goals, and then Collin Delia giving up five goals. And then Delia giving up five goals again. And then Lankinen giving up five goals. That's exactly how this season started for Chicago goaltending. They have three mediocre goalies on a team that wasn't yet coming together to protect them. (Note: I am not high at all on Subban, I still consider him well below average for the NHL). At this point, Chicago was willing to go with anyone – the hot dog vendor, anyone at all – if they could just not allow five goals. So when Lankinen finally gave them a Quality Start against Detroit, they went with him again. The next game was against Detroit and he had another QS. And the rest is history. But…

Lankinen vs. Detroit Red Wings: 4-0-0, 1.25, 0.962 and 100% QS

Lankinen vs. Every Other Team: 5-4-1, 3.64, 0.894 and 40% QS

Furthermore, Lankinen since February 19 (includes two games against Detroit), he is 3-3-1, 3.65 and 0.896 SV%. Subban since February 19, he is 2-2-0, 3.43 and 0.898.

And, Collin Delia was absolutely rocked in his first two starts in the AHL, settled in and won back-to-back games with a pair of Quality Starts. I'm not placing any wagers on this situation…but I'm watching it unfold and see how this plays out.
Believe it or not, I don't think the Chicago situation is set in stone just yet. Halt all work on your shrine to Lankinen immediately and please stand by.

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One situation I am no longer watching is one that I believe is settled. The Chris Driedger vs. Sergei Bobrovsky situation. And my how things have changed over the last two weeks. Always trust the contract. Yes, once in a while it will steer you wrong. We all remember Ilya Bryzgalov. But nine times out of ten – eventually – the big contract will prevail over the young upstart.

Bobrovsky has now started seven of the last nine games. And that, my friends, is that. Five Quality Starts in that span and on the season he is 11-2-2. He had bottomed out on February 13 when he gave up six goals and then Driedger had the next three starts. That was rock bottom right there. And the mind-reset seems to have worked. Since that point, here are the numbers:

6-0-0, 2.60 GAA and 0.922 SV% and 100% QS.

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In Raanta's start Sunday he gave up three goals on 34 shots. He's had a great season, so the situation I noted above is definitely leaning his way. But these are things I watch. Most of the time it comes to nothing. But if I ever see things shift differently, I'll be sure to note it here the next Monday.

Surprisingly, because it seemed like he could do no wrong, Conor Garland is pointless in four straight. Sunday he was playing with Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller, but that line got seriously out-chanced by a count of 17-7

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Spelling/grammar error aside, this is a fact. The Wild are playing like they've always played throughout the years under different coaches – defense defense defense. Just twice in the last 10 games has this team given up more than 30 shots. Kaapo Kahkonen has won eight straight games, with six Quality Starts. But Cam Talbot just started two straight, with both of them Quality Starts. This one is going to swing back and forth this year and probably lean Talbot. Next year it will be an equal split but maybe lean Kahkonen down the stretch. And then in 2022-23, in the final year of Talbot's contract, it will be Kahkonen's next and Talbot will be the back up. But along the way, both will have excellent peripherals. Kahkonen will be goalie gold in 22-23 and beyond, on this team, once he stops sharing his starts.

Kevin Fiala had a two-point game on Sunday. Last season he had a slow start as well with just one point in the month of October (eight games). Hopefully these slow starts will end next year when Marco Rossi joins the roster. I truly feel that the line of the future for this team is Rossi centering Fiala and Kirill Kaprizov.

Speaking of Kaprizov, your future Calder winner by a mile, he now has 15 points in his last 16 games and has 16 SOG in his last two contests. Rookie. Of. The. Year.

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The first team in 20 wins is… the Carolina Hurricanes? The most underrated team in the league right now. No Teravainen? No Trocheck? No problem!

Vincent Trocheck, a player I had 'finally' started writing off by late last season after believing in him forever, has been having a huge rebound season. Had I only hung in there just a few months longer… Anyway, things don't look good for Trocheck. His upper-body injury will sideline him "longer than hoped". Sebastian Aho took his spot on the Nino NiederreiterMartin Necas line. Jordan Martinook took Aho's spot on the top line…suddenly making that line the third line.

Dougie Hamilton is on an eight-game points streak, 10 points in that span.

Filip Hronek is still looking for his first goal of the season, but he has 15 assists including five in the last three games. And his 15 points lead the team in scoring!

At this point, just ride Jonathan Bernier. The guy has been phenomenal this season. I think this will be the best year of his career, at the age of 32. Since February 13:

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5-5-0, 2.75 GAA and 0.921 SV%, and 72.7 QS%

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Nikita Gusev is getting jobbed. He really is. Maybe he deserves it, I don't know. I'm not in the dressing room. He got off to a slow start with just a point in nine games. But his 5on5 S% was the lowest in the league, so to me he should be allowed some leeway there. Then he got COVID. Returning three weeks later he put up a three-game points streak. Then just one point in three games – so he was made a healthy scratch (?)! Back for one game, then scratched again for four! Nobody ever claimed that there was justice in pro hockey.

Gusev was back in the lineup Sunday and he played 10 whole minutes. With Nathan Bastian and Mikhail Maltsev. All due respect to Maltsev, who isn't bad. But this reminds me of Steve Sullivan on the Leafs, and when he'd get put back in the lineup it would be with Kris King and Tie Domi. And they'd ask "Steve – why aren't you scoring?" Eventually they just put him on waivers and off he went to Chicago and the rest is history. Gusev saw 1:32 on the power play and New Jersey scored on that power play. So… they had successful offense the one time he was put out there with any talent. This stuff drives me nuts, trying to hook a plough onto a racehorse.

I could be wrong, but I think that Gusev has too much talent to be held back like this. As with last year, he'll start putting up points anyway. But with a shorter season and his contract running out, I just worry that it won't happen soon enough to be noticed. If he gets going finally at Game 40 (with a dozen healthy scratches until then), and gets hot for 16 games – will that be enough to keep him in the NHL? Or will he go back to Russia next season, never to be seen here again? In an 82-game season, getting hot at Game 40 actually means something. I mean, 42 games to show the other teams how good you can be versus 16 games showing the same thing is a world of difference. Gusev is unrestricted after the season.

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Oliver Wahlstrom played 6:25 on the power play on Sunday. He has taken the PP time from Anthony Beauvillier and/or Jordan Eberle. Wahlstrom didn't get a point but he was second star of the game. He has eight points in his last 12 games, though he's been playing on the fourth line. For now he is mostly a PP specialist.

Fellow prospect Kiefer Bellows was on the big line with Mathew Barzal and Jordan Eberle. Anders Lee missed the game and is possibly out for the entire season (in fact, I consider it likely) with an undisclosed leg injury that happened Thursday. With Bellows on that line they gave up nine chances while creating six.

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Max Domi has now spent three pretty good games on the Cam AtkinsonJack Roslovic line. He was held pointless Sunday, but going in he had four points in two games. Patrik Laine and Oliver Bjorkstrand played together, and to me that gives Columbus a real good one-two punch. They just need a center for that line because Nick Foligno doesn't cut it. The best option is probably Kevin Stenlund, but that's not saying much. The team needs to acquire a center. Desperately.

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Nazem Kadri has 12 points in his last 11 games. He also has 38 shots in that span. In fact, he's been consistently shooting well over three shots per game all season. Generally he's good for about 2.5.

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Matt Murray was a surprise scratch Sunday – injured in warmups. Upper body. So Joey Daccord came in and stopped 33 of 36 for his first NHL win. Against the Leafs.

Brady Tkachuk had two points, six shots on goal and four Hits. His 132 SOG leads the NHL by 13 (over Connor McDavid) and his 134 Hits lead the NHL by seven (over Jani Hakanpaa of Anaheim). Radko Gudas has 126. Florida has five games in hand on Ottawa and Anaheim has two games in hand. For Tkachuk to lead the league in both categories (which would be an amazing feat) he may need some help.

Ryan Dzingel, since joining Ottawa, has three goals, eight PIM, nine Hits and 13 SOG in six games. He's on a checking line with Austin Watson and Clark Bishop.

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It took six minutes for Michael Hutchinson to get pulled (two goals on three shots). The last time a Leafs' goalie was pulled so quickly was in 1991 when Allan Bester got the hook.

Joe Thornton has one point in his last six games. Last week he was moved to the John Tavares line and Zach Hyman was on the Matthews-Marner line, and that's where they remained Sunday. Personal preference: I love the line of Hyman – Pierre Engvall – Ilya Mikheyev. I hadn't liked a Toronto third line this much since the days of Zezel, Berg and Osborne. But now Alex Kerfoot has that spot.

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See you next Monday.

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