Cap League Goalie Rankings – March 2021
Alexander MacLean
2021-03-26
The cold streak for Carter Hart is extending longer than many people expected – especially on my end. Rookie goalies like Alex Nedeljkovic, Kevin Lankinen, and Kaapo Kahkonen are all making their mark, further reinforcing two points that I believe in. First, goaltending is not somewhere to spend a lot of money, and second, younger goalies should be given some rope when possible in order to show that they can step in sooner rather than later.
One goalie that hasn't gotten enough love is Cal Petersen. He has pushed Jonathan Quick aside in the Kings' net, leaving Quick completely outside of the top-62 list here. Petersen is about the sign his third pro contract this summer, and looks primed to take a below-market level deal despite being ready to take on the lion's share of starts moving forward. The Kings also have one of the best prospect systems in the NHL, and aren't far off from really rocketing up the standings. In two or three years Petersen could be providing similar value to what Philipp Grubauer is giving managers this season. As an above-average goalie playing on a below-market deal for one of the stronger teams in the league, Petersen could be a league winner sooner rather than later, and it's worth inquiring on him now before the secret gets out.
Standard pre-rankings note:
This isn't meant to be a be-all and end-all rating system for you to use without thinking and just trade your players for anyone above them on the list that you can find, but used with some foresight for managing salaries, I'm hoping that the list can help you mine value in trades, and at the draft table.
Cap hit is used for the player cost, so if your league uses salary or AAV, please account for that, as it can greatly change the impact of rookies. The rankings are set up so as to provide the most value in the current season, while providing some value in future years, based on modeling for predicted salary increases and production growth.
The stats used for the goaltenders attempt to balance both ratio stats as well as volume. For those of you with variations towards either end of the spectrum, leaning more towards volume or rate stats, you will want to account for that change in value. Same thing goes for setting variations such as: number of teams, salary space, or roster positions. This list is made to be a baseline guide for player evaluation, and to promote discussion and understanding of how to optimize rosters in a cap league setting.
The goalie list comes not only with a rankings system, but with value tiers. The tiers (also computed by a formula of mine) represent a more general view on a goalie's value taking into account a few overarching factors. Cheap backups can have higher ratings but show up lower down the tier rankings. The high ranking is due to their low cap hits coupled with an established floor with some possible upside. The lower tier is a result of them having uncertain volume, and the lower likelihood of hitting their upside in any given year.In general, aim to have the highest rated players if you are looking to be most cap efficient, but use the tiers if you just want to focus on having the best goalies and you are comfortable paying a little more for that security.
If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean.
I'm not perfect, and the rankings won't be either. Comments help with optimizing the values.
We're sticking with the +/- 5.0 rating that Dobber uses on all of his rating schemes as the range for approximately equivalent value. The skater and goalie rankings are synched so that the value of a skater against a goalie can be compared.
All salary info is courtesy of capfriendly. Without further ado, the rankings:
| Rank | Name | Age | Cap Hit | Yrs | Rating | Tier |
| 1 | Igor Shesterkin | 25 | $925,000 | 1 | 160.34 | 2 |
| 2 | Carter Hart | 22 | $730,833 | 1 | 150.72 | 1 |
| 3 | Kevin Lankinen | 25 | $800,000 | 2 | 149.86 | 3 |
| 4 | Vitek Vanecek | 25 | $716,667 | 2 | 148.97 | 3 |
| 5 | Calvin Petersen | 26 | $858,333 | 2 | 144.33 | 4 |
| 6 | Kaapo Kahkonen | 24 | $725,000 | 2 | 142.36 | 4 |
| 7 | Philipp Grubauer | 29 | $3,333,333 | 1 | 140.34 | 2 |
| 8 | Thatcher Demko | 25 | $1,050,000 | 1 | 131.61 | 4 |
| 9 | Casey DeSmith | 29 | $1,250,000 | 2 | 129.28 | 3 |
| 10 | Jake Oettinger | 22 | $925,000 | 2 | 129.06 | 3 |
| 11 | Ilya Samsonov | 24 | $925,000 | 1 | 124.27 | 2 |
| 12 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 26 | $9,500,000 | 8 | 116.34 | 1 |
| 13 | Juuse Saros | 25 | $1,500,000 | 1 | 111.46 | 3 |
| 14 | Tristan Jarry | 25 | $3,500,000 | 3 | 108.87 | 1 |
| 15 | Connor Hellebuyck | 27 | $6,166,666 | 4 | 106.10 | 1 |
| 16 | Joonas Korpisalo | 26 | $2,800,000 | 2 | 104.06 | 3 |
| 17 | Semyon Varlamov | 32 | $5,000,000 | 3 | 101.86 | 2 |
| 18 | Chris Driedger | 26 | $850,000 | 1 | 100.47 | 2 |
| 19 | Jordan Binnington | 27 | $4,400,000 | 1 | 100.24 | 1 |
| 20 | Mackenzie Blackwood | 24 | $2,800,000 | 3 | 98.63 | 3 |
| 21 | Alex Nedeljkovic | 25 | $737,500 | 1 | 98.55 | 4 |
| 22 | Darcy Kuemper | 30 | $4,500,000 | 2 | 96.91 | 3 |
| 23 | Ilya Sorokin | 25 | $2,000,000 | 1 | 95.53 | 2 |
| 24 | Jack Campbell | 29 | $1,650,000 | 2 | 93.06 | 4 |
| 25 | Alex Stalock | 33 | $785,000 | 2 | 92.76 | 4 |
| 26 | Jaroslav Halak | 35 | $2,250,000 | 1 | 85.53 | 3 |
| 27 | Jacob Markstrom | 31 | $6,000,000 | 6 | 83.83 | 3 |
| 28 | Frederik Andersen | 31 | $5,000,000 | 1 | 83.24 | 2 |
| 29 | Cam Talbot | 33 | $3,666,666 | 3 | 79.16 | 5 |
| 30 | Ville Husso | 26 | $750,000 | 2 | 78.94 | 3 |
| 31 | Jonathan Bernier | 32 | $3,000,000 | 1 | 77.44 | 3 |
| 32 | James Reimer | 33 | $3,400,000 | 1 | 75.21 | 4 |
| 33 | Tuukka Rask | 34 | $7,000,000 | 1 | 74.37 | 3 |
| 34 | Pavel Francouz | 30 | $2,000,000 | 2 | 73.90 | 3 |
| 35 | John Gibson | 27 | $6,400,000 | 7 | 73.45 | 3 |
| 36 | Elvis Merzlikins | 26 | $4,000,000 | 2 | 72.61 | 4 |
| 37 | Anton Khudobin | 34 | $3,333,333 | 3 | 71.72 | 4 |
| 38 | Petr Mrazek | 29 | $3,125,000 | 1 | 71.30 | 3 |
| 39 | Malcolm Subban | 27 | $850,000 | 2 | 67.80 | 5 |
| 40 | Ben Bishop | 34 | $4,916,666 | 3 | 67.54 | 5 |
| 41 | Braden Holtby | 31 | $4,300,000 | 2 | 67.18 | 4 |
| 42 | Robin Lehner | 29 | $5,000,000 | 5 | 67.04 | 4 |
| 43 | Linus Ullmark | 27 | $2,600,000 | 1 | 62.00 | 5 |
| 44 | Marc-Andre Fleury | 36 | $7,000,000 | 2 | 61.78 | 5 |
| 45 | Devan Dubnyk | 34 | $4,333,333 | 1 | 59.55 | 6 |
| 46 | Scott Wedgewood | 28 | $700,000 | 1 | 59.06 | 3 |
| 47 | Mikko Koskinen | 32 | $4,500,000 | 2 | 57.26 | 5 |
| 48 | Alexandar Georgiev | 25 | $2,425,000 | 2 | 56.68 | 5 |
| 49 | Matt Murray | 26 | $6,250,000 | 4 | 55.81 | 4 |
| 50 | Brian Elliott | 35 | $1,500,000 | 1 | 54.37 | 6 |
| 51 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 32 | $10,000,000 | 6 | 53.16 | 4 |
| 52 | David Rittich | 28 | $2,750,000 | 1 | 53.04 | 5 |
| 53 | Carey Price | 33 | $10,500,000 | 6 | 52.79 | 3 |
| 54 | Antti Raanta | 31 | $4,250,000 | 1 | 51.88 | 5 |
| 55 | Jake Allen | 30 | $4,350,000 | 1 | 50.70 | 4 |
| 56 | Marcus Hogberg | 26 | $700,000 | 1 | 49.26 | 5 |
| 57 | Martin Jones | 31 | $5,750,000 | 4 | 47.83 | 5 |
| 58 | Mike Smith | 39 | $2,000,000 | 2 | 47.50 | 6 |
| 59 | Adin Hill | 24 | $800,000 | 1 | 45.74 | 5 |
| 60 | Jonas Johansson | 25 | $700,000 | 1 | 45.37 | 5 |
| 61 | Pekka Rinne | 38 | $5,000,000 | 1 | 44.70 | 6 |
| 62 | Carter Hutton | 35 | $2,750,000 | 1 | 41.92 | 6 |
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