Looking Ahead: Caufield for Down the Stretch
Adam Daly-Frey
2021-04-30
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, April 29th
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Cole Caufield, F, Montreal Canadiens (Available in 87 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – The "smol goal boy" is already up with Montreal after completing his college season, and although he's only had four games of professional experience to this point – two AHL games (where he scored three goals and an assist) and two NHL games – he comes with such a strong pedigree and is a legitimate goal-scoring threat no matter the level that he's already playing on a scoring line for Montreal and is on the top power play.
Playing with Nick Suzuki and Tyler Toffoli, Caufield has yet to score in the NHL, but he's fired six pucks on net and averaged 14 and a half minutes between the two games, and has had scoring opportunities (0.91 expected goals so far) but hasn't made them count yet. Given the fact that he'll play against lesser competition – the Phillip Danault line eats tough minutes for Montreal – and is on the power play, expect Caufield to contribute down the stretch – especially with Montreal's strong schedule. Caufield put up 49 goals and 39 assists in 67 NCAA games over the past two seasons which is an elite level, especially in his freshman and sophomore seasons, and that should carry over to the professional level.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Arttu Ruotsalainen, F, Buffalo Sabres (Available in 99.9 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Since it's the end of the season, keeper and dynasty leagues who are either already eliminated or have room on the bench can look longer term for players to carry over to next year, and Ruotsalainen is one of those sneaky players even though he plays for the lowly Sabres.
After putting up 105 points in three seasons in Finland (173 games) as a 20–22-year-old, Ruotsalainen had 16G-11A in 19 games to lead the league this year before coming over to North America, and after being a point-per-game player in the AHL he recently got the call-up to Buffalo where he's performed reasonably well considering his ice time and teammates. Playing around 14 minutes per game, Ruotsalainen has 17 shots on goal and four goals, and that's primarily with Anders Bjork on his opposite wing. He's a bit more of a longshot than most keepers, but most keepers are already owned at this point of the season.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Cam Atkinson, F, Columbus Blue Jackets (Rostered in 53 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – With just 31 points in 51 games this season, Atkinson is a far cry from the player he was expected to be after he exploded for 41 goals just two seasons ago, and with Columbus' poor schedule the rest of the way he is most likely droppable.
While converting shots at a lower rate than his career average, the difference between the two isn't enough to completely explain the massive drop-off in scoring for Atkinson: shooting 9.9 percent this season vs. 11.4 percent career, which would only add two goals to Atkinson's current total of 14. That can partially be explained by his linemates, as Atkinson has spent 70 percent of his 5v5 ice time this season with Jack Roslovic as a linemate, compared to 2018-19 when he played 900 minutes at 5v5 with Artemi Panarin. Playing in an oppressive system under John Tortorella with bad linemates is a recipe for disaster, and this season, Atkinson has been a disaster relative to expectations. He's getting pucks on net at a lower rate relative to his career as well (about 0.2 shots per game less than his career average) and doesn't contribute in the hits or blocks categories.
The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
It's very late in the season and it's tough to find disappointing players rostered above 50 percent that active fantasy players haven't already jettisoned, so instead of pulling teeth to make the argument that maybe Kevin Fiala or Patric Hornqvist or whoever are droppable, here's a short list of players who will disappoint through the end of the year in bullet form:
- Patrik Laine (72 percent rostered): He's featured as an Anchor twice this season alone and has only five points in his past 20(!) games. Drop.
- Pierre-Luc Dubois (63 percent rostered): Has only topped 16 minutes of ice time in a game three times (including a game of 16:04) in the past ten games and has four assists in that time. Saw only 10:52 in his last game, non-injury related.
- Ryan Pulock (64 percent rostered): It took him until April to pot his first goal and has only three points in his past 20 games. A fine depth player in peripheral leagues – Pulock gets a good chunk of hits and blocks – but droppable in points-only.
- Rasmus Ristolainen (60 percent rostered): A negative player in six of his past ten games – picking up a single assist – who has also seen less than 21 minutes of ice time in half of those games, a far cry from Ristolainen's career averages of just a few years ago.
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from April 30to May 12
Colorado – All three of the Love 'Em teams this week have had their schedules impacted by COVID which may have hurt – some fantasy matchups were lost thanks to light schedules for the Avs – but for those who have hung on this far, the rewards are about to be reaped: eight games through May 12 for Colorado! Four of those are against the Sharks (bonus!) with the other four games coming against Vegas (once) and the Kings (three times).
Montreal – The Habs also get to play eight times thanks to COVID rescheduling, with two games each against Edmonton and Ottawa, one game against Winnipeg, and three games against Toronto. Montreal has lost Brendan Gallagher (most likely for the season) and now Jonathan Drouin is gone for personal reasons which hurts the higher-end of the fantasy-relevant Habs, but that means good opportunity for the lesser-owned Montreal players.
Vancouver – Showing almost no signs off rust after coming back from their outbreak, the Canucks have scored 17 goals in the six games since coming back and the elite players have performed very well: Quinn Hughes had five points in those six games, Brock Boeser had four, Bo Horvat had five and J.T. Miller had four. The depth of Vancouver is still questionable at best, but feel free to roll out any upper-echelon Canucks over the next two weeks.
Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Florida – The Panthers have only four games left this season, which means any Panther player can't be counted on in the last weeks of the fantasy season, especially as Florida's already clinched a playoff spot and can rest players (as Toronto has started to do) if they want. Florida will play a road game in Chicago before home games against Dallas (once) and Tampa (twice) to end the year.
Detroit – With all the ended seasons in Detroit (Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi, Bobby Ryan, probably Robby Fabbri), the Red Wings weren't a fantasy-relevant team in the first place but are even more so to finish the year: Detroit also only has four remaining games, two home games against Tampa Bay and two road games in Columbus.
Columbus – Although the Blue Jackets will get the aforementioned two games against Detroit, Columbus doesn't have a much better schedule than Florida or Detroit, playing just one more game through the end of the year: at Carolina followed by four home games, two against Nashville and two against Detroit.
April 30 to May 6 |
Best Bets |
MTL 5.65 – Away OTT TOR- Home WPG OTT TOR |
COL 4.8 – Away SJS SJS – Home SJS SJS |
ARI 4.41 – Away – Home VGK VGK LAK LAK |
CAR 4.41 – Away – Home CBJ CHI CHI CHI |
NYI 4.4 – Away BUF BUF – Home NYR NJD |
Steer Clear |
FLA 1.99 – Away CHI – Home DAL |
DET 1.995 – Away – Home TBL TBL |
CGY 2.0475 – Away EDM – Home WPG |
NSH 2.655 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home DAL |
DAL 2.945 – Away NSH FLA TBL – Home |
May 1 to May 7 |
Best Bets |
MTL 4.6 – Away OTT TOR – Home OTT TOR |
COL 4.585 – Away SJS SJS LAK- Home SJS |
ARI 4.5 – Away SJS- Home VGK LAK LAK |
STL 4.41 – Away MIN VGK- Home ANH ANH |
CAR 4.41 – Away – Home CBJ CHI CHI CHI |
Steer Clear |
FLA 1.99 – Away CHI – Home DAL |
CGY 2.0475 – Away EDM – Home WPG |
WPG 2.09 – Away OTT CGY – Home |
NSH 2.655 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home DAL |
DET 2.85 – Away CBJ- Home TBL TBL |
May 2 to May 8 |
Best Bets |
CBJ 4.725 – – Home NSH NSH DET DET |
ARI 4.59 – Away SJS SJS- Home LAK LAK |
MIN 4.515 – Away – Home VGK VGK ANH ANH |
CAR 4.4625 – Away NSH- Home CHI CHI CHI |
NYI 4.4 – Away BUF BUF – Home NJD NJD |
Steer Clear |
CGY 1.05 – Away – Home WPG |
FLA 1.9425 – Away – Home DAL TBL |
CHI 2.7075 – Away CAR CAR CAR – Home |
DET 2.7075 – Away CBJ CBJ- Home TBL |
NSH 2.7075 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home CAR |
May 3 to May 9 |
Best Bets |
CBJ 4.725 – – Home NSH NSH DET DET |
ARI 4.59 – Away SJS SJS – Home LAK LAK |
MIN 4.515 – Away – Home VGK VGK ANH ANH |
CAR 4.4625 – Away NSH – Home CHI CHI CHI |
NYI 4.4 – Away BUF BUF – Home NJD NJD |
Steer Clear |
DET 1.71 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home |
FLA 1.9425 – Away – Home DAL TBL |
CGY 2.31 – Away – Home WPG OTT |
NSH 2.7075 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home CAR |
TBL 2.935 – Away FLA – Home DAL DAL |
May 4 to May 10 |
Best Bets |
BOS 4.3525 – Away NJD – Home NYR NYR NYI |
CAR 4.305 – Away NSH NSH- Home CHI CHI |
EDM 4.2 – Away VAN MTL- Home VAN VAN |
MTL 4.3325 – Away OTT TOR TOR – Home EDM |
COL 4.18 – Away SJS LAK LAK VGK- Home |
Steer Clear |
DET 1.71 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home |
FLA 1.995 – Away – Home TBL TBL |
TOR 2.205 – Away – Home MTL MTL |
CGY 2.31 – Away – Home WPG OTT |
NJD 2.6975 – Away NYI NYI – Home BOS |
May 5 to May 11 |
Best Bets |
WPG 4.415 – Away CGY – Home OTT VAN VAN |
MTL 4.3325 – Away OTT TOR TOR – Home EDM |
BOS 4.305 – Away WSH- Home NYR NYR NYI |
COL 4.18 – Away SJS LAK LAK VGK – Home |
STL 4.1525 – Away VGK VGK LAK – Home ANH |
Steer Clear |
DET 1.71 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home |
NJD 1.805 – Away NYI NYI – Home |
BUF 1.9 – Away PIT PIT – Home |
FLA 1.995 – Away – Home TBL TBL |
PHI 1.995 – Away WSH WSH – Home |
May 6 to May 12 |
Best Bets |
BOS 4.305 – Away WSH – Home NYR NYR NYI |
MTL 4.295 – Away TOR TOR – Home EDM EDM |
EDM 4.2 – Away MTL MTL- Home VAN VAN |
COL 4.195 – Away LAK LAK VGK – Home LAK |
STL 4.1 – Away VGK VGK LAK – Home MIN |
Steer Clear |
CGY 1.26 – Away – Home OTT |
NYR 1.615 – Away BOS BOS – Home |
DET 1.71 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home |
NJD 1.805 – Away NYI NYI – Home |
BUF 1.9 – Away PIT PIT – Home |