Ramblings: New York Islanders Rundown; Trading Garland for Vrana for Francouz (Jun 16)

Alexander MacLean

2021-06-16

As much as everyone says that the Islanders are no fun to watch, they do provide some entertaining games. They're not on the Vegas or Colorado level of speed or skill, but they're not lacking too much in either. They play a very physical game, and they know how to create chances even against a better team. I'll also note that I very much enjoy playing chess, so to me there is a certain something enjoyable in watching a very smart team play.

I'm hopeful they can re-sign Kyle Palmieri, because he compliments the skillset of the team very well, and for his value, he has settled in after a slow start with the team.

Four points in 17 regular season games is not exactly what the Islanders had in mind when they paid a first rounder for him, however when your opposite winger (Michael Dal Colle) can't even crack the playoff lineup, then getting acclimatized is going to be a bit more difficult.

In the playoffs, Palmieri now has nine points in 14 games, which isn't far off of his peak regular season pace. That regular season pace has been set over the last five years, with hardly any variance. Palmieri has paced for between 54-58 points since joining New Jersey in 2015, and expecting him back around that level next year would be the smart bet regardless of where he signs.

That being said, the Isles also have Anthony Beauvillier and Oliver Wahlstrom who both deserve a bump in ice time. Beauvillier especially looks like he's primed for a bit of a jump in production. Take a look at his splits from this past year:

His line with Brock Nelson and Josh Bailey should stick for next year. All four actually struggled in the first quarter, but it was only Beauvillier who took off at the end of the year. He's talented enough to carry a line on his own. It would be great to see him on the first powerplay unit too. Alas, we can't have everything.

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Semyon Varlamov left the game for a short period after a collision with Brayden Point. Luckily for the Islanders their "backup" is just as good. If it was the other way around with Andrei Vasilevskiy going down with an injury, the series would have been over right there. This year's playoffs have been an excellent experience for Ilya Sorokin, and he has definitely padded his RFA contract numbers with some good showings in this year's playoffs. It's the term that is going to be interesting there.

Varlamov returned after only missing a few minutes, and looked no worse for the wear despite taking the loss. We know what to expect from both goalies in the regular season next year, and they'll be worth grabbing despite their reduced totals.

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Alec Martinez has earned himself a big raise on the FA market. I would offer him more than Tyson Barrie… not sure if that's a hot take or not, but feel free to let me know.

I'm not sure that Vegas can afford to keep him now, so of course they will go out and get someone better. Do they bring in Mattias Ekholm, Matt Dumba, Nick Leddy, Rasmus Ristolainen, etc? The list is almost endless of players they could acquire (likely with some money retained on most), and they have the advantage of not having to worry about protection slots on defence. Most teams won't want to part with a top prospect for someone they will have to protect, and if there's a chance to bet on Vegas as your 2022 Stanley Cup Champions now, then that's a great reason to put some money down.

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Colorado, Boston, and Carolina were all eliminated since my last Ramblings, and I think they are going to be three of the most interesting teams to watch this summer. Boston has two goalies and two-thirds of their top line without contracts, in addition to an aging team with a slim pipeline being another year older. Colorado is the best team in the league on paper, but another Nazem Kadri suspension in the playoffs possibly means he played his last game there, and despite being flush with cap space over the last year or two, they are now facing the possibility of losing at least one key name if they want to keep the rest of the group together. In Carolina, they have their coach and their Norris-worthy defenceman without contracts, and even without protecting Dougie Hamilton in the expansion draft they still have an excess of defencemen they will want to keep. Oh, and they also have two UFA goalies.

Carolina and Colorado need to keep things simple, they'll get another excellent kick at the can next year. Boston on the other hand is a little more interesting. They finally had some scoring depth this season, but ran into a hot team and got bounced in the second round. If Taylor Hall and David Krejci both move on (or maybe even if just one of them does) then Boston may start breaking up their top line again.

The bigger problem when looking at the Boston situation is their lack of centre depth if Krejci does move on. Patrice Bergeron is going to be 36 at the start of the season, and only has a year left. Now he's likely not going to leave, but the possibility is always there, and Boston doesn't have an internal option to replace him on the top line. Charlie Coyle isn't a bad player, but he tops out as a second line centre.

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In one of my dynasty leagues, after a fair bit of back and forth, I pulled off a three-team trade this past week. The trade boils down to Conor Garland for Jakub Vrana for Pavel Francouz. I'm the team that is getting Francouz, and as I've said before in my Ramblings, I think he's going to be well worth acquiring now, as his price is only going to go up entering next season at least as a platoon goalie in Colorado, if not the outright starter.

It's the forwards that I want to discuss here though, because the debate on those two is what got the deal done in the first place. I was trying to move Garland for Francouz, but with it being a cap league, I was going to have to wait until he signed his next contract before the other GM would commit. However, since Garland was on my block, I also got another inquiry on him, and we penciled out that Vrana for Garland was a fairly even deal. Turns out that the other GM prefers Vrana, so that set of flips made sense for all of us.

Vrana and Garland both need new contracts, and I hadn't even noticed at the time, but I have them projected to be $10k apart on their next deals – both at around a $4.5 million cap hit. They are both wingers, and were born two weeks apart 25 years ago now. The scoring paces and lack of peripherals were pretty similar on the whole for last season, as the number bear out:

However, they went in different directions as the season went on. After being traded to Detroit at the deadline, Vrana put up a point-per-game despite playing mostly with Valtteri Filppula and Michael Rasmussen. All it took to get him going was to play him more minutes, who knew! Michael Clifford knew, that's who. Cliffy has been singing Vrana's praises for multiple years now, and with the move to Detroit, it's high-time you all got on board.

How does Garland compare to the Detroit version of Vrana then? Well, Garland put up a point-per-game pace in his first few weeks and last few weeks of the season, but during the middle of the campaign he was only a little above half of that. The strange thing is, nothing really changed. His shooting rate, powerplay time, overall ice time, and line mates all stayed relatively consistent. Sometimes the bounces just don't go, and sometimes they do. Looking at the underlying numbers, on the season Garland's were relatively average (Vrana's luck metrics were a little high in spots), and that means that neither the highs nor the lows are likely what we will see out of Garland long-term, but more likely he is exactly what he showed, as a 65-point-pace winger.

If I had to choose between the two at the same salary, I think I would opt for Vrana because of a slightly higher upside, but it is a close call.

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Anything on your mind that you want me to cover in a Ramblings post this summer? leave a comment, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

Stay safe!  

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