Ramblings: Gunnarsson retires; Islanders force Game 7; Wahlstrom, Bertuzzi, and Landeskog – June 24
Michael Clifford
2021-06-24
Carl Gunnarsson has retired from the NHL after 12 seasons. He always seemed kind of underrated, but he generally brought really good defence to the middle of any blue line. He was a reliable part of many successful Blues teams, including the Cup winner in 2019. He retires at the age of 34 with over 600 games played and a Cup ring as a seventh-round pick. That is a pretty good career. Congratulations to him and all the best in the future.
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I have been thinking about the real upside of Cole Caufield and I'm not sure it's as high as we think. At least, not in Montreal it's not. I'll have more thoughts on this tomorrow but please know he's a phenomenal player who will likely be an all-star very soon. It doesn't mean he'll be a fantasy all-star, though.
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I might need to mention a quick mea culpa on Joel Edmundson. I still don't think the contract is very good, but his defensive play has been largely excellent the entire postseason. I would argue that, defensively speaking, he has been Montreal's best blue liner. He might not eat all the tough minutes that Weber and Chiarot do, but he always seems to know where to be when he's on the ice. That is a talent for a defenceman and he's showing it in spades. A great playoff run from him.
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Going into Wednesday night's game, and this might mean nothing, but the top-5 scorers from these playoffs are all from Tampa Bay. Not that it's surprising that a team that has gone deep has the top scorers, but it's wild there are no VGK/MTL/NYI players in there, especially with the Islanders being the third-highest scoring team in the postseason. It would be kind of funny to see the Bolts have all the top scorers in the playoffs but lose in the Final. Ok, maybe not funny, but it'll definitely be something.
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The New York Islanders forced Game 7 thanks to an overtime goal from Anthony Beauvillier early in the first extra frame. A giveaway from Blake Coleman gave Beauvillier a clean shot from the slot and it was over before half the audience got back from the fridge. They came back from 2-0 down to get to a deciding contest, and they largely outplayed the Lightning in the third. Mat Barzal had maybe his best game of the series with a pair of primary assists, a pair of shots, and was their spark all through their push in the last 20 minutes.
Tampa Bay's loss would come at an even greater cost, as Scott Mayfield delivered a cross-check on Nikita Kucherov – away from the play and right in front of the referee, mind you – and Kucherov left the game, not to return. This was the play:
There was no penalty called.
We will have to see on Kucherov's status. Maybe it's just a bruise or something and he'll be good to go for Game 7. If not, that is a big blow to this team's offence. Though, as we saw in the regular season, all hope is definitely not lost if he's out.
If this was the last game at the Coliseum, it was a great comeback win from the Isles. Either way, the team ends with a memorable victory, or returns with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final.
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The next several Ramblings I have are going to be committed to one question I have about each team in the league. This will all be from a fantasy perspective, of course, but I have been thinking a lot about roles, and how they could change. Tied into that is how roles can affect ADP; a player with an uncertain role with a high ADP is always of concern.
We are still a ways out from next season, obviously, but we're a week away from July. That means we're about 13-14 weeks from the start of the regular season, and that's really not a lot of time to get prepared for the 2021-22 season.
Without rambling (get it?!) much further, let's get to some of these questions. They are in no particular order and were written before Game 6 on Wednesday night.
Oliver Wahlstrom: can he crack the top-6?
This is a very fair question to ask given what's happened in the playoffs. Though Wahlstrom did seem to get injured at one point, he has been practicing for a couple weeks, so it really seems he's a healthy scratch for them right now. It is hard to complain with their results so far, but he was third on the team in goals/60 at 5-on-5 this year. He clearly has a scoring touch, but they want a different type of player in his role, and they're not really having trouble scoring anyway.
The problem here is New York's entire top-6 is signed for next year save Anthony Beauvillier, and as an RFA he's almost guaranteed to return. In that sense, Wahlstrom would have to knock one of Eberle or Bailey out of the top-6 to earn a spot. Eberle has been a staple of the top line and the second line has been a great shutdown unit all year.
Barring injury, it's hard seeing Wahlstrom getting 17 minutes a night consistently. He will still have some fantasy value, but he'll be nowhere near his ceiling so long as he stays on the third line.
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What is Gabriel Landeskog's value moving forward?
Landeskog turns 29 years old in November. Over the years, I have often talked about how fast power forwards can fall off as they approach 30 years old. Let's go through a few of them:
- Jamie Benn: 81 points per 82 games from 2015-18 and 52 points per 82 games since
- Milan Lucic: 47 points per 82 games from 2015-18 and 25 points per 82 games since
- Corey Perry: 74 points per 82 games from age 27-29 and 57 points per 82 from age 30-32
Blake Wheeler's play has fallen off considerably but the Winnipeg power play is still good and he gets tons of empty-net minutes. His fantasy value is still good, even if his shot rate has fallen by nearly a full goal per game in the last four years.
Those are just a handful of examples, and they can vary (Wheeler was pretty good until his age-33 season whereas Benn started falling off hard in his 20s). And while we expect a lot of players' fantasy values to fall off as they age, some power forwards have just completely fallen off a cliff.
I have a lot of faith in Colorado's top line but that's where Landeskog derives all his value. This isn't hyperbole: with Landeskog on the ice without Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado's goal rate drops from 3.5 to 1.8, or nearly cut in half. If Landeskog isn't a staple on the top line, those near point-per-game seasons go bye-bye. Add the uncertainty of his age, and there are concerns here.
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Who are some candidates to play with Matthews and Marner?
This is, obviously, a very valuable spot to be. Just being besides Matthews alone gave Zach Hyman some of his best fantasy seasons and we even saw Joe Thornton (!) pop some goals on that line this year. Who can step in, assuming Hyman is gone?
The first guy I want to see is Alex Galchenyuk. Matthews/Marner are good enough defensively to support a player with his flaws, but he has the skill to skate with them. It could be a good way to get the most out of him, as he probably doesn't have the defensive chops to help carry a line in that respect down the lineup. They do need to re-sign him first, though.
Pierre Engvall might be able to do it, though I'm not sure he has the finishing ability to play on that line. All the same, he might not need it if he's playing with two players of that calibre.
I will throw out a UFA who will come cheap: Mathieu Perreault. He's still a good defensive player and showed some offensive flash this year when moved up the lineup in Winnipeg. He could double as centre insurance in case anyone goes down again like Tavares did.
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What will Tyler Bertuzzi's role be?
Hey, remember that guy? The guy who put up back-to-back seasons of 20+ goals, 45+ points, and 70+ hits? He's still around!
I wonder about Bertuzzi's ADP considering he only played nine games this season and the Red Wings were terrible besides that. I cannot fathom he'll be much higher than this past season, where he infrequently went inside the top-150. The team does have some young stars coming, but the left side is still kind of thin, and he's averaged over 19 minutes a night over his last 80 games. It is hard to imagine him being yeeted to the bottom-6 and playing 14 minutes a night next year unless his injuries linger.
There should be optimism here. Detroit loves playing veterans and so I have no concerns about Bertuzzi at least not playing top-6, top-PP minutes to start the season. Whether it lasts or not is probably irrelevant, given his price at the draft table is likely to be so cheap.