Ramblings: Lightning Take Commanding Lead, Eriksson Ek Signs Long Term, Keith Trade Rumors (July 3)

Ian Gooding

2021-07-03

The clock is close to striking midnight on the Cinderella Canadiens. The balance of play might not be indicating that the Habs are being dominated, as with a little more luck they could down only 2-1 or maybe even up 2-1. However, Tampa has proven throughout the playoffs that they can win any type of game. High-scoring game, low-scoring game, finesse game, physical game, scorers, goaltending, you name it. If you're looking for a miracle from the Habs, you're not going to find it. History has shown that a 3-0 lead is practically insurmountable, and the Lightning are the defending Stanley Cup champions for a reason. It’s quite possible that the Stanley Cup is awarded on Monday night.

Of all of Tampa's scorers to lead the team in a 6-3 win in Game 3, Tyler Johnson turned out to be the guy. Johnson scored two goals with a plus-2 and four shots on goal while logging just nine minutes in icetime. Johnson is having a decent final with points in back-to-back games, and he has taken at least two shots over his last four games. This might be his last hurrah with the Lightning, as the Bolts will need to cut some serious payroll in the offseason. The Seattle Kraken might seem like an option because Johnson is from the state of Washington, but the Kraken will also have lots to choose from and don’t need to pick a player because he is a local boy and they have oodles of cap space.

Nikita Kucherov scored a goal and added an assist along with six shots. He's running away with the playoff scoring lead with 32 points in 21 games, a full nine points ahead of second-place Brayden Point. Many of the Dobber writers (myself included) were drawn into Brayden Point's goal streak when making our Conn Smythe picks, but Dobber himself was the only one to buck the trend and go with Kucherov. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if it is Kucherov. In fact, he's put together a two-year run that has been matched by only Gretzky and Lemieux.

Ondrej Palat recorded two assists and eight hits, giving him seven points in his last seven games and 13 hits over his last two games. He's taking full advantage of top-line duty with Kucherov and Brayden Point.

Victor Hedman also chipped in a goal and an assist, snapping a four-game point drought.

Alex Killorn was out for Game 3 and is considered day-to-day for the rest of the series. Killorn has been a major factor for the Bolts in the playoffs, scoring eight goals and 17 points in 19 games while assuming first-unit power-play time. He also missed Game 2 with the injury. Eight of his 19 points have been on the power play.

The Killorn injury hasn't slowed the Bolts, as they are getting scoring from everywhere. To give you an idea, both Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow are riding three-game point streaks. Coleman has goals in back-to-back games, while Goodrow assisted on Coleman's empty-net goal.

Dominique Ducharme returned behind the bench for Game 3 after being cleared from COVID quarantine. He was forced into action early, calling a timeout after the Lightning scored two quick goals within the first 3:27 of the game. Those goals seemed to set the tone, as the Habs were never able to catch the Lightning on the scoreboard in spite of outshooting them 35-30 in the game.

This might go down as this guy's biggest life regret, considering the ticket prices appeared to be at least $1000 CDN apiece. I know there are some diehard Habs fans out there, but really? My first child’s birth might have been the greatest moment of my life.

Carey Price's save percentage by series:

Round 1 vs. Toronto: .932 SV%

Round 2 vs. Winnipeg: .942 SV%

Semifinal vs. Vegas: .933 SV%

Final vs. Tampa Bay: .835 SV%

Overall, Price does not match up well vs. Tampa Bay. He obviously did not play the Lightning during the regular season since they were not in the same division. So I'll have to give you his stats against Tampa Bay from the 2019-20 season, using the Goalie VS Opponent feature on Frozen Tools.

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4 GP, 0-4-0, 3.59 GAA, .857 SV% (more here)

He earned a quality start in one of those four games with a .913 SV%. But his highest save percentage in any of the other three games was .864. Remember that the Habs and Bolts are back in the same division next season (Fun fact: Next season will be the second consecutive season where the Cup finalists from the previous season will play in the same division.) Price is going to have to face the likes of the Lightning, Maple Leafs, Bruins, and Panthers numerous times. Something to consider if you believe that Price's playoff performance will spur a bounce-back 2021-22 season. That's going to be one nasty division.

Conversely, Andrei Vasilevskiy matches up very well against the Canadiens. He has now won 11 consecutive games against the Habs, spanning into both the regular season and the playoffs. With a 1.94 GAA and .938 SV% and 15 quality starts out of 21 games, Vasilevskiy will probably also receive some Conn Smythe consideration.

The Blackhawks are continuing to pay the price for keeping the band together. Rumors have surfaced that they are now trying to shop Duncan Keith to a team in either Western Canada or the Pacific Northwest so that he can be closer to his family. This isn't the Norris Trophy version of Keith but rather a soon-to-be 38-year-old version complete with a cap hit of $5.5 million for two more seasons. I'm not sure that the Blackhawks will be able to trade him, but if so, they will likely need to retain salary and may also need to add a sweetener.

In hindsight it's easy to say that the Hawks shouldn't have given Keith that contract knowing that age eventually catches up to everyone. But this is the price that the Hawks are paying for winning three Stanley Cups. Any team that adds Keith should target him for a more reduced role that he received in Chicago, where he led the team in icetime in 2020-21 (23:25 TOI).

On a related note, Kraken ownership have given GM Ron Francis the authority to spend to the cap. So they can go after Keith if they so desire, or many other options that teams are trying to dump or even willing to part with.

The Wild have signed Joel Eriksson Ek to an eight-year extension with an AAV of $5.25 million. Eriksson Ek established himself in 2020-21, finishing fourth in Selke Trophy voting. This is quite the long-term investment in Eriksson Ek, although the Wild are not shy about signing players to lengthy term.

Eriksson Ek scored a career-high 19 goals in 56 games, which would have worked out to a 27-goal pace over a full season. In particular, he started the season strong with five goals and nine points in his first 10 games. After a weak midseason (11 PTS in 29 GP), he finished on a high note with six goals and 10 points over his last 16 games. That strong start made him noticeable in fantasy leagues, as he was a hot waiver-wire pickup early when a lot of fantasy owners are paying extra-close attention to their rosters.   

A 16.0 SH% for a player that shot below 10% throughout his career might suggest a possible regression in the goal department. In addition, Eriksson Ek recorded only two power-play points all season, a result indicative of a player who spends more time on the penalty kill (1:40 SHTOI) than on the power play (1:11 PPTOI). He appears to be an ideal Selke candidate going forward, even though his scoring upside might be somewhat limited.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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