This one kind of hits home because as a fantasy analyst, there are players we have to believe in. There are players that come along and the analyst identifies something they like about the player and start of sort to root for them. Bias can set in here so it's a very tricky path to walk down, but it happens with every analyst in any sport. Personally, going back a decade, guys like Dmitrij Jaskin, Valeri Nichushkin, and Vince Dunn were/are personal favourites of mine, and I always root for them.

One of these players is Pavel Buchnevich. It's more for how he was treated through his first 4-5 years in the NHL. He was showing true top-line skill but the team kept stuffing him in the bottom-6. It is hard for top-end players to flourish when they're stuck with bad line mates.

That script flipped in 2021 when Buch was given top-line duties, at least at even strength, and penalty-kill duties. He was arguably the team's best player through the end of March and seemed to finally be rounding into a true two-way top-line winger.

So, of course, the Rangers traded him:

There are cap implications for the Rangers, which is why Buch was traded. That said, there is a non-zero chance they just traded their second-best winger for a non-first round pick next year and a fourth liner.

Let's get to it.

What the Blues get

As mentioned, Buch has been a good player for years, at least offensively. I thought I would compare him to another young winger, from 2017-2020, from Evolving Hockey:

Now, we know that Boeser has a wicked shot and that's what makes him so valuable, so they aren't the same player. But Boeser's primary points/60 at 5-on-5 from 2017-20 was 1.55 and Buch's was 1.42. That difference is about two points every season. How would Canucks fans feel if Brock Boeser had been traded for Sammy Blais and a second-round pick? Maybe add a fifth-rounder for the shooter difference. Yeah, exactly.

This is the time I mention that Buchnevich did all this *before* his breakout season in 2021. According to Corey Sznajder's data, only Artemi Panarin was better at zone entries/carry-ins than Buch on the Rangers this year. He was also one of their true dual shot/pass threats; maybe a watered-down version of Kevin Fiala. But add a developing defensive dimension, and a watered-down Fiala with more defence is a darn good player.

At worst, the Blues are getting a true second-line winger, and Buch has shown the ability to play on the top line for extended periods of time. The problem is St. Louis, at least as of right now, is their right side has Vladimir Tarasenko, David Perron, and Jordan Kyrou. But Buch is a left shot, even though he often played the right side for the Rangers, and for that reason it makes more sense to use him at left wing in St. Louis. They are losing Jaden Schwartz, so it’s likely Buch is just a direct replacement for him, ice time and all. I think just transferring Schwartz’s 2019-20 stats to Buch, at least points-wise, is an easy line to draw until we get a better idea of what the roster looks like.

Just for fun: Buchnevich has the same primary points rate (goals and primary assists) over the last two years as Sidney Crosby.

What the Rangers get

There just are not a lot of charitable things to say for Blais. Both his offensive and defensive impacts for his career are below average and he doesn't really bring much either on the PK or the PP. He is really just a guy to plug on the fourth line. He does have a Stanley Cup, like Barclay Goodrow, but fantasy-wise, there's nothing here unless readers are in a hits league. He will provide a lot of hits and that's about it.

The real problem is the Rangers are just too deep on the left side: Panarin, Kreider, Lafrenière. Even if one of them goes to the right side, Blais is no higher than a third-liner with little-to-no special teams. He can be drafted for hits, and that's it.

Trading Buch does open up a top-6 spot that won't be going to Blais. That is good news for Kakko/Laffy owners.

Who this helps

Brayden Schenn

Alexis Lafrenière

Kaapo Kakko

Vitali Kravtsov

Who this hurts

Pavel Buchnevich