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This article started out as a piece on players who showed a significant contrast in production between the first and second half of the 2021 campaign. I compiled a list of names including Thomas Greiss, Ryan Strome, and Kris Letang – guys who were able to shake off slow starts and excel down the stretch. Then I got around to the flip side of the coin – analyzing players who started strong and fell off as the season progressed. One name that stood out to me on that list was Andrei Vasilevskiy, so I began writing a blurb for him. Before I knew it, a simple article on first and second half splits turned into a focus piece on Vasilevskiy. Hopefully you can forgive me for scrapping the original piece and turning this week's Eastern Edge into a long-winded discussion about one question – is Andrei Vasilevskiy worth a first-round pick in your fantasy hockey draft?

When it comes to goaltending in fantasy hockey, Vasilevskiy has established himself as the cream of the crop. As an elite goaltender on an elite team, he provides a level of excellence and consistency that you'd be hard-pressed to find anywhere else. While his highs are undeniable and well-documented, I get the sense that his lows are often forgotten. As you look through his overall stats last year, you'll notice he finished with a 31-10-1 record, 2.21 GAA and .925 save percentage. Impressive stuff! However, a closer look reveals a pretty significant contrast between his performance in the first and second half of the 2021 campaign. He started strong, winning 17 of his first 21 starts and posting a .934 save percentage and 1.85 GAA in the process. However, his second half was slightly worse as he won 14 of 21 starts down the stretch, registering a 2.57 GAA and .916 save percentage. Now, it seems I'm being overly critical here, because it's not like his numbers fell off a cliff between the first and second half. Even though those second half numbers represent a downgrade, he was still one of the league's best netminders. But if we zoom in further and take a look at his performance in the final quarter of the season – the second half of the second half, if you will – you'll notice his numbers were actually below average. In Vasilevskiy's final 10 appearances, he went 6-4, posting a 2.90 GAA and .903 save percentage. A 10-game sample is not insignificant – it represents about 25-percent of Vasilevskiy's workload in 2021. If we go back a season to the 2019-2020 campaign, we'll see that he experienced a similar stretch of below-average play. That year, his struggles occurred during the first quarter, where he posted a 3.02 GAA and .901 save percentage in 12 games. He picked up his game as the season progressed and ultimately finished with respectable overall numbers, but again, we saw a stretch where Vasilevskiy struggled for roughly 25-percent of the season.

Now, it's tempting to turn a blind eye to Vasilevskiy's struggles because they're comfortably outweighed by his periods of strong play. Given the uncertainty and inconsistency typically associated with goaltending in fantasy hockey, most of us could stomach one bad quarter if it guarantees three strong quarters. However, I question whether that's really an acceptable trade-off given the high cost of the first-round pick that's probably required to secure Vasilevskiy on your fantasy roster this year. When you look at the skaters projected to be taken in the first round, you see guys that have consistently scored above a point-per-game pace in recent years. Names like Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov, Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Huberdeau, Brad Marchand, Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Now, I'm not saying those guys are immune to sustained stretches of poor play, but for most of the league's truly elite offensive producers, it's rare for such struggle to last a full quarter. Even if it does, they probably still managed an above-average level of production during that one 'bad' quarter. The same can't be said about Vasilevskiy, who's recent 'bad quarters' have been below average compared to his fellow netminders.

Now, it's incredibly difficult to compare the fantasy value of skaters and goalies, but it's a comparison we must make in order to establish whether Vasilevskiy is worth a first-round pick. On one hand, the average fantasy league has more skater categories than goaltending categories, so in most cases, skaters can contribute more to your fantasy roster. However, there's an abundance of productive skaters around the league, but a short list of good goaltenders in favourable situations. Since there's a smaller supply of elite goalies than elite skaters, you might justify that the cost of an elite goalie should be higher than an elite skater. To add another level to that argument, I often hear that the difference in fantasy value between Vasilevskiy and the next best goaltender is much greater than it is between a 'first-round' skater and a 'second-round' skater. While there may be some logic to that argument, I don't know if that's the right comparison to make. Vasilevskiy will be the first goalie off the board in most drafts, but the next set of goalies might not be taken until the third or fourth round. Therefore, it might be more appropriate to compare the difference between a first-round skater and a third or fourth-round skater, to the difference between Vasilevskiy and the next best goaltenders. At that point, things get a bit more complicated.

So, is Andrei Vasilevskiy worth a first-round pick in your fantasy hockey draft? This is probably a much more complex question than I've made it out to be, and the answer will vary based on your league settings. However, I just feel like the prevailing narrative in recent years sets Vasilevskiy up as the best fantasy goaltender who should be taken in the first round of fantasy drafts. After taking a look at the quarterly breakdown of Vasilevskiy's stats in recent years, he seems more human to me. I'm starting to think that from a fantasy perspective, maybe the difference between him and the rest of the league's goaltenders isn't actually that massive. Don't get me wrong, the difference still exists. But why waste your first, most valuable draft pick investing in goaltending – the most inconsistent and unpredictable position? Even Vasilevskiy – the ideal fantasy goaltender – has experienced significant stretches of poor play. In my opinion, a better strategy would be to invest those valuable early picks into reliable elite skaters and then use your late picks to take a chance on undervalued goaltenders that you believe in – guys like Linus Ullmark, Mackenzie Blackwood and Elvis Merzlikins. I'm sure there are many other angles I haven't considered, so please leave your thoughts in the comments below!