Ramblings: Best Ball Leagues; Reinhart, Eriksson Ek, McCann; Caufield Injury – September 28
Michael Clifford
2021-09-28
Last week I did my first best ball of the season, doing so over at Underdog Fantasy. They have a season-long tournament up where it's $10 to enter with a top prize of $5K. There are 16 rounds in the draft, but each roster only counts five players to their final standings: one centre, two wingers, one defenceman, one goalie. In that sense, getting the top of the draft right is important because even hitting on players late might not be important – there just aren't enough starting roster spots.
All the same, it's good practice for other leagues and can give you a good gauge of where players may go in leagues outside of Yahoo. For example, I have often talked about Timo Meier's depressed ADP over at Yahoo. In my Underdog draft, he went about 90 picks ahead of his Yahoo ADP. So, yeah, this isn't a bad way to gauge where players may go in competitive leagues.
I'll go over a bit of my process here:
- I always look to stack teammates. I'm often looking for players that I expect to play a lot together either at 5-on-5, the power play, or hopefully both. The obvious ones are obvious, like MacKinnon/Rantanen, for example. But it's more about finding pairs with at least one player deeper in the draft, like, say, Zibanejad and Buchnevich last year.
- I have my values for players. While I'll try to get them as late as possible to maximize value, if I have someone ranked as a fifth-round value, and they have an ADP in the 10th round, I'm likely not waiting until the 10th round to draft them.
- All things equal, I will draft the younger player. I have no problem drafting older players if they have upside at their draft slot, but younger players (under 30) tend to pepper the top of the fantasy leaderboard.
- I diversify as I grow my best ball tournament number, but I will still draft the same players over and over if they're a good value. If Jared McCann keeps falling outside the top-120, I'll keep drafting him.
These are points leagues and players get points for goals, assists, PPPs, shots, hits, and blocks. Blocks are worth more than hits so defencemen get a bit of a boost there. We all good? Good.
To start, here's my full roster, drafting third overall in a snake:
Things don't really get interesting until my 4/5 rounds. I have talked about Seth Jones at different times this offseason but I'll summarize my thoughts here: he's probably a top-5 defenceman this year. He had a three-year stretch in Columbus where, every 82 games, he averaged 13 goals, 39 assists, 210 shots, 93 hits, 135 blocks, and 15 PPPs. Since then (2016-19), he's improved his hit rates a lot. I genuinely think 10 goals, 50 points, 250 hits+blocks, 220 shots, and 20 PPPs are all well within reach for him. I don't think some people are properly adjusting for him going from what could be a bottom-5 offence to what could be a top-5 offence. The difference is night and day. He also pairs with Alex DeBrincat, and that's exactly what I was looking for.
There are three players I drafted based off preseason information: Sam Reinhart, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Jared McCann. Let me talk about each of those three quickly.
Reinhart looks to be on the top line for Florida, with Carter Verhaege and Aleksander Barkov. Reinhart could be walking into top-line, top PP minutes with Barkov, and that's just tremendous news. He averaged 62 points/82 games the last three seasons with a pitiful Buffalo roster (granted, often with Eichel). What is he going to do with a great Florida roster? I can't wait to find out.
My general issue with Eriksson Ek is his role. He has often been used in a shutdown role with Marcus Foligno, and that's not really great for fantasy. I did notice over the weekend though that he was working with what appeared to be the top PP unit i.e. with Kaprizov, Zucc et al. While I'd prefer he also played with them at 5-on-5, this is better than nothing. He had just two PPPs in 56 games last year. Had he been a PP regular, he would have finished closer to 40 points and we're having a very different conversation right now. Because of the amount of hits and shots he can provide, he's on my watch lists.
Lastly is Jared McCann. He has been on the top line in Seattle camp with Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle. Quite honestly, I think that can be a great line. Each player is a genuine first-line talent and they are in a weak division. Over the last two years, he averaged 50 points/82 games with over two shots and one hit per game. That was all done playing with, largely, non-first-line talents and under 15 minutes a night. What does he do playing with Schwartz/Eberle and 18 minutes a night? I want to find out and I'll spend a 12th/13th/14th round pick to do so.
It seems people are staying low on Josh Anderson and I don't get it. Particularly in this format, where plus/minus isn't a concern. He was a top-170 player on Yahoo last year and that was with a minus-10 rating. If we take out his plus/minus issue, he's closer to a top-125 player. There may not be some things he does well – rack up assists – but he paced for 27 goals, 197 shots, and 219 hits. If he can go for 25 goals, 200 shots, and 200 hits, that's probably worth picking earlier than 190th overall.
As for my goalies, I wanted guys that would get the lion's share of their starts. In this format where I can't chase goalies on the waiver wire, I didn't want guys who might split their starts like Linus Ullmark or Frederik Andersen. Shesterkin may not see 60 starts but I think he pushes past 50. Binnington could see 60 and I think St. Louis rebounds from a poor 2021 season. I feel comfortable that one of those two guys will be a very good fantasy starter for me this year. I also wanted to swing with Cal Petersen in case things come together more quickly than anticipated for Los Angeles.
Well, that's my roster. I got some pairs like Jones/DeBrincat and Dumba/Eriksson Ek, I got some guys late that I think will be very good this year like Tarasenko and McCann, and I think my goalies are solid. I think this draft shows my approach to this format as well as the types of players I value. What do you guys think? Let me know.
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I have talked about Timo Meier's ADP on Yahoo and how late he's going. He is a tremendous value going after pick-150. However, in the above Underdog draft, he went inside the top-90, which is about where I have him ranked. It is why I say I have my own values for players and will draft them when I think I should. I had Meier in my queue and was going to take him probably around pick-100. Someone jumped on him before me. It might be a spot where all the value was drafted out of him, but it just shows that ADP should be a guideline, not a hard-and-fast rule.
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Cole Caufield will be out about a week with a minor injury. The Habs don't seem concerned so we shouldn't be, either.
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We have a top-line Jordan Kyrou. I repeat, this is not a drill: we have top-line Jordan Kyrou. This is a guy I have been waiting years for a proper breakout and it looks like it could finally be here. He put up 35 points in 55 games last year, or a 52-point pace. That was on a brutally injured St. Louis team, too.
Last season, we saw the flashes of Kyrou's breakout. The production, the high carry-in rate, the dangerous playmaking, it was all there. If he can get 17 minutes a night playing with O'Reilly/Perron plus PP time? The breakout could be here, too. The PP time isn't conjecture, either: he was skating with both the team's PP units in practice as they look for a good fit for him. Just beware of his peripheral problem: he doesn't hit.
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Some news on Tyler Bertuzzi:
Bertuzzi is notorious for being one of the high-profile players who hasn't been vaccinated against COVID. The lack of vaccination means there are extra protocols he has to go through as well as being unable to travel to Canada. Maybe something else has come up in this regard? It could also be completely non-COVID related. We'll keep you posted.
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On the topic of COVID, Zach Aston-Reese has tested positive.
Regardless of vaccination status, this will happen to players throughout the year. The concern is both with the player's health and with their teammates', who are at risk when someone in the room is COVID-positive. Let's hope ZAR has no problems with this and the team doesn't have more cases pop up.
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I noticed Yegor Sharangovich has been practicing a lot with Jack Hughes so far in camp. Is it possible Sharangovich starts with him for the year? Because that would be swell for my fantasy teams.
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Zach Hyman had been skating on the top line with Connor McDavid but yesterday in practice he was skating on the power play with him as well. What kind of season can Hyman have if he's playing almost all of his minutes with McDavid?