Eastern Edge: Undervalued Players like Couturier, Bjorkstrand, and More

Brennan Des

2021-09-28

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss players that are currently being drafted later than they should be in fantasy leagues. Add these names to your watch list if you're looking for steals in the late rounds. For these, we are using ADP data from Yahoo. Just beware that the later the drafts go, the more unreliable the data can get and keeper leagues can also factor in.

Teuvo Teravainen

The Finnish winger had his 2021 campaign derailed by COVID-19 and a concussion, but still managed a respectable 15 points in 21 appearances – which translates to 59 points in 82 games. While he didn't let injuries get the better of him, it was still a down year for Teravainen, who had posted a 76-point pace in back-to-back seasons heading into 2021. Since Teravainen was limited to such a low number of games last year, you won't find him near the top of any leaderboards as you look through last season's stats. It seems like the 'out of sight, out of mind' phenomenon is at play here as he's currently being drafted 138th overall in the average Yahoo league. If you ask me, that's a significant discount for a player who should have no trouble eclipsing the 60-point mark and may even flirt with a point-per-game pace this year. Some may be concerned that Teravainen only saw a 43-percent share of the team's power-play time when he was in the lineup last year. I think that number is misleading because he kept moving in and out of the lineup, so it was harder to get him integrated into the first unit. Had he been healthy all year, he would have been a prominent piece of Carolina's top power-play unit – as he had been in years prior.

Dylan Larkin

Detroit's captain is coming off a disappointing year that saw him score at a 43-point pace. It was a considerable step back for a player that had paced for 61, 79 and 63 points in the three seasons prior to the 2021 campaign. Now, as long as the Red Wings are perceived as a bad team, Larkin will probably be undervalued in fantasy formats. Since so many leagues count plus/minus as a fantasy category, managers are often hesitant to draft players on bad teams that seem prone to minuses. While some fantasy managers may have been willing to take on that risk when Larkin was pacing for 60-plus points, it's a lot harder to stomach after last year's 40-point pace. Aside from the fact that Larkin is coming off a down year, you may avoid him in fantasy formats because there's some uncertainty surrounding his line mates. In previous years, Detroit's status as a rebuilding team was easier to ignore because you knew Larkin would be playing with Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi – two talented line mates with whom he had developed great chemistry. Now, if you asked me a few weeks ago, I would have told you with confidence that Larkin would enjoy success this year alongside Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana. However, with Bertuzzi refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine and Vrana dealing with a shoulder injury, things get a little more complicated. As of right now, Bertuzzi is set to miss at least nine games as we don't expect he'll be able to cross the border during the season. Barring injuries, that still leaves 73 games that he'd be able to play with Larkin. There's also hope that Vrana's shoulder injury isn't too serious and he'd also be in the lineup for most games this season. In other words, while there's some uncertainty surrounding Larkin's line mates right now, I think he'll still be able to play with good line mates for most of the year and will end up enjoying a productive season. His average draft position (ADP) is currently 180, which is a low price to pay for someone with 60-point upside.  

Jeff Skinner

Skinner's fantasy value reached its peak during the 2018-2019 campaign – the year he scored 40 goals while playing alongside superstar center Jack Eichel. As a result of Skinner's offensive struggles over the past two years, his fantasy stock has taken a nose-dive. He paced for just 32 points in 2019-2020 and somehow managed to disappoint even more last season, scoring at a 22-point pace. So why would I recommend targeting a player who seems to be on the decline? At 29 years of age, I'd say Skinner is too young for age-related decline to have such a drastic effect on his play. While he dealt with some concussion issues early in his career, he hasn't experienced any major injuries recently. As such I don't think his offensive struggles are a product of injury-related decline. Rather, there's one factor which seems to coincide with Skinner's reduced output: Ralph Krueger's reign as head coach. During Skinner's 40-goal season, he enjoyed playing in favourable conditions. He had good line mates, saw plenty of ice-time, held a prominent power-play role, and was frequently deployed in the offensive zone. When Krueger took over as Buffalo's head coach, he essentially took all those favourable conditions away from Skinner, leading to the unimpressive output we've seen over the past two seasons. With Krueger out of the picture, I think we see Skinner bounce back this year. Buffalo's supporting cast isn't good enough for Skinner to return to 40-goal form, but 20 to 25 goals may be attainable. Skinner could provide some sneaky value if your league rewards shots and goals, especially considering he's available on the waiver wire in most formats.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

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Unlike some other players on this list, Bjorkstrand isn't looking to bounce back after a rough showing in 2021. In fact, last season was his most productive one as he paced for 64 points, proving that the 60-point pace he posted the year before was no fluke. Despite the career-high production, Bjorkstrand currently has an ADP of 174 in Yahoo leagues – which is absolutely disrespectful. I guess some think that Columbus' 'top' line with Patrik Laine and Jakub Voracek will see the most offensive deployment this year, making it harder for Bjorkstrand to produce. However, Bjorkstrand has shown that he's a strong two-way player that can turn defense into offense. He hasn't relied on favourable deployment to produce in the past two years, so I'm confident he'll be able to produce again this year. I know the Blue Jackets made a number of significant moves during the offseason, but I don't see why any one of those changes would prevent Bjorkstrand from scoring at a 60-point pace for a third-straight year.

Sean Couturier

Can someone please explain to me why a player who has managed at least a 70-point pace in each of the last four seasons has an ADP of 144? I understand if he falls a few spots because he's only eligible to play center in Yahoo leagues and the center position has the most depth in fantasy hockey – but 144? I can even concede that he doesn't have a lot of value in multicategory leagues as his main strength is putting up points – but 144? I really can't wrap my head around this one, but don't look a gift horse in the mouth, I guess. On the topic of forwards in Philly that are being undervalued in fantasy drafts, Claude Giroux currently has an ADP of 156 in Yahoo leagues. Giroux provides an extra bit of value in formats that track faceoffs because he can rack up face-off wins while slotted in as a left-wing in your lineup, providing a nice boost on top of the face-off wins tallied from your center slots.

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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

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DYLAN COZENS OTT
MACKIE SAMOSKEVICH FLA
LANE HUTSON MTL
LEO CARLSSON ANA
JACK QUINN BUF

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  Players Team
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
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LINE COMBOS

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24.9 LUCAS RAYMOND MICHAEL RASMUSSEN MARCO KASPER
22.9 DYLAN LARKIN PATRICK KANE ALEX DEBRINCAT
17.6 VLADIMIR TARASENKO J.T. COMPHER JONATAN BERGGREN

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