We have a week left until the season starts, which doesn't provide a lot of time for people to catch up on training camp news. I get that even in the best of times, finding some minutes to research fantasy hockey can be tough for people with families, a job (or multiple), and other responsibilities. There has been a lot of important roster and lineup developments through the preseason. It is probably a good idea to take some time and go through some teams and players whose situations have changed significantly from the offseason.

Jared McCann

It has been a couple weeks of Jared McCann on the top line and top PP unit so it's easy to forget that as recently as three weeks ago, Yanni Gourde was a fringe top-100 selection in some leagues. He was the expected 1C, not McCann, but life works itself out sometimes.

Some people may think McCann's 2021 was a mirage, so a few stats from the three seasons before that, which spanned time in Pittsburgh and Florida:

• Higher points/60 at 5-on-5 than Patric Hornqvist or Bo Horvat (basically a second-line rate).
• Higher shots/60 at 5-on-5 than Kevin Fiala or William Nylander, inside the 85^th percentile league-wide.
• Defensive impacts that put him in the top quarter of the league.

The least-kind thing we can say about McCann, heading into the shortened 2021 season, was that he was a 24-year-old with a track record of second-line scoring, first-line shot rates, and good defence. That seem, uh, just fine?

Penguins coaches raved about him last year, so it seems it was just another step in his progression and now he's landed the role he's worked his whole life towards. McCann might not be a true #1 centre in the vein of Bergeron or Matthews, but he'll get lots of ice time with good line mates. We should see McCann crack 20 goals and 50 points for the first time and there's a lot of upside beyond that.

Anthony Mantha

The big concern with Mantha heading into this season was his power-play role. Ostensibly, with Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Oshie, there isn't room for him. However, Backstrom has hit a snag with a preseason injury and it doesn't look like he's returning anytime soon. While that is a big blow for the Capitals, it gives Mantha a direct path to top PP minutes, which is what we want here.

The flipside, of course, is that this leaves the Caps down a top-6 centre. What if Mantha loses Backstrom as a centre but gains Backstrom's PP role? What is the trade-off? Quite honestly, if Mantha plays with Lars Eller, it might not be that bad. Eller is kind of like a Diet Backstrom, and Mantha can get by with that as long as he's getting four minutes a game with the man advantage.

Mantha is going fairly late in drafts and if things go well, he can put up 30 goals and 70 points. Don't forget about him.

Trevor Zegras

I've had a weird relationship with Zegras (don't tell him, though, it might crush him). I wasn't as high on him as a prospect as others were but it's clear he has great offensive upside and is Anaheim's top offensive prospect.

My big concern about Zegras this year would be ice time; the team re-signed Ryan Getzlaf, they still have Adam Henrique, Sam Steel has showed flashes, etc. And if he wasn't going to be the team's top centre, they didn't have enough talent on the wings to help Zegras flourish. Well, so far this preseason, he's been playing with Max Comtois and Rickard Rakell on the top line. That is about as good as it could possibly get, really, for all three players. Zegras, specifically, is getting two of the team's three best goal scorers on his wing. This really is as good as we could hope for.

How high the ladder goes here, who knows. The West is wide open after the top handful of teams and Anaheim's division sucks. If that line can really gel, maybe we get 60 points out of Zegras. That probably is the max for this year, though. This is still a bad offensive environment.

Dylan Larkin

Not sure any player has taken more of a dive in value since the start of camp than Larkin. At the outset of camp, we were hoping for 82 games of Bertuzzi-Larkin-Vrana this year. Or, at the least, a lot of games featuring Larkin/Vrana skating together.

WELL.

Fast forward a couple weeks, and Bertuzzi is going to miss a bunch of games because he's unvaccinated and Jakub Vrana is out until January with an injury. We might not even get 30 games of Larkin/Vrana this year.

Detroit is turning the corner but they don't have the depth to sustain these problems. Let's say they head to Canada for a game, and it's now something like Zadina-Larkin-Fabbri on the top line. Ok, that might work. The rest of the lineup? Uh… Erne-Suter-Namestnikov? Oh no. This isn't going to go well.

It just really sucks for Larkin, Vrana, and the Wings. This was supposed to be a season where they show flashes of the future – and they will, with some of their players – but it looks like another lottery season ahead. That's not good for Larkin or his fantasy value.

Nikolaj Ehlers

We're all waiting for the same thing, right? We're waiting for the day Paul Maurice puts Ehlers on the top line and top PP unit, right? Because when that happens, Ehlers is immediately a 90-point threat.

That isn't conjecture, either. He's averaged 72 points/82 games over the last two seasons. That is largely with second-line, second PP minutes. He could absolutely add 18 points playing with Scheifele and Connor all the time.

Of course, Blake Wheeler started camp on Scheifele's wing. However, they gave Wheeler a night off on the weekend and had Ehlers on the top line. The line scored two of the team's three goals in that game.

I think Maurice has used Ehlers in a second-line role because he needs him to carry that line. But it does seem they're at least thinking of moving Ehlers up which would be phenomenal for fantasy. We'll see if it sticks.

Tyler Johnson

Johnson might have seen his fortunes change more than any other player in training camps thus far. He was basically an after-thought all summer, and then the 'Hawks put him on the top line with Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. That also includes top PP time. We have gone from afterthought to "is he a top-100 player?" in two weeks.

Of course, this is all about opportunity. He could have a great year if he maintains that role through April. But if he loses it by November, he's waiver fodder. What to do?

My rule of thumb is no players who lose all their value with a line change in the first 10 rounds. If Johnson falls outside the top-120 picks, I'll think about it. Until that point, though, there are others I would want and feel better about their role (like McCann).

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As a bonus, Jonathan Dahlen was on the top line with Timo Meier and Logan Couture on Monday. He has been skating with the big guns often in preseason. Hmm…

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I joined the Keeping Karlsson fellas to give some commentary on their Tier 1 Draft. If you want my thoughts on a whole slew of players, listen here.

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First look at, basically, the full Montreal lineup:

Les trios à l'entraînement ce matin: #CH #RDS

Toffoli-Suzuki-Caufield;
Drouin-Dvorak-Anderson;
Armia-Evans-Gallagher;
Lehkonen-Perreault-Belzile.

— Chantal Machabee (@ChantalMachabee) October 4, 2021

It looks fine, really. I think that third line with Armia-Evans-Gallagher should do very well as a shutdown line, leaving the top line softer matchups. That second line will be the key to success here. If they can gel, maybe the Habs have something here. If not, they could be on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

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Winnipeg is down to, effectively, their NHL lineup and spares up front:

F: Connor, Scheifele, Wheeler, Copp, Dubois, Ehlers, Stastny, Lowry, Harkins, Vesalainen, Nash, Toninato, Gustafsson, Svechnikov, Perfetti, Suess*

*injured

— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) October 4, 2021

That is good news for both Evgeny Svechnikov and Cole Perfetti. They're at least in the mix for NHL minutes, which is a positive development. The top-6 seems locked up but there are minutes down the lineup for them to pursue. Whether either gets a meaningful role this year that translates to fantasy relevance, well, I doubt it. It's a long haul to relevance for both, so it's just deep leaguers looking for now.

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The Rangers keep their line-shuffling moving as Vitali Kravtsov was off for a practice and Alexis Lafrenière joined the top line with Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad. While I personally would like to see Kravtsov on the top line, if they can make this work, it could give them a fairly balanced top-9:

Laffy-Ziba-Kreider

Panarin-Strome-Kakko

Goodrow-Chytil-Kravtsov

That all looks good to me.

Whatever sticks this year, we'll see. It sure seems like it's the kids who are being moved around, and not the vets, though.

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It sure seems there's a lot of discrepancy on Sam Bennett. I have seen him ranked inside the top-100, and outside the top-200; drafted inside the top-80, and drafted in the 14^th round of a 12-team league. It really depends on your league as to whether he'll need to be drafted with an eighth-round pick or a 15^th-round pick.

I am in the camp for the "he'll be a top-100 player." He had very good transition numbers in Calgary and average-to-great shot rates in his Flames career. That is aside from his very high hit rate. Put all that alongside Jonathan Huberdeau – one of the best distributors in hockey – in a system that is designed for offence? It is not the same as playing on the third line in Calgary with Derek Ryan. In multi-cat leagues he has legitimate top-25 upside and at worst, even if he drops to the third line, he brings a ton of peripherals. I have no concerns here.