Top 10 Players That Will Disappoint

Tom Collins

2021-10-11

We’re one day from the start of the NHL season, and every fantasy general manager is full of hope and optimism.

After all, you made all the shrewd drafts picks and obviously won every trade. However, no matter how great you may have been, you’ll still have a few players on your team that will frustrate you.

Below are 10 players that will be a disappointment. Please note that I am not saying any of these players are going to be awful. It’s just that they won’t be able to live up to lofty expectations.

The best example from last year would be Mika Zibanejad. Many projected him to put up a 90-plus-point pace based on his previous campaign. His 73-point pace was still great, but it had to have been disappointing considering his high draft position in one-year leagues and how much fantasy GMs overpaid him.

10. Joe Pavelski

Last season, major injuries to other Stars players forced Pavelski into a top-line role with plum power-play minutes. Now the team has Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov back in the lineup, and Pavelski should see a decrease in ice time. It also appears as if the Stars will go with a 1A/1B power-play units. That doesn't bode well for a player who had 41 per cent of his points with the man advantage last season. Pavelski can still be productive, but temper your expectations. 

9. Bryan Rust

Two seasons ago, he was a surprise point-per-game player. Last year, he put up a 62-point pace. This season, the Penguins are a mess, at least at the start of the season. Evgeni Malkin is out for two months, Sidney Crosby is injured and is doubtful for the opening game, and Jake Guentzel has tested positive for COVID-19. This will not be a pretty start for the Penguins, and Rust will be stuck with inferior linemates.

8. Carter Verhaeghe

Don’t believe any hype that players can automatically reach 70-80 points playing alongside Jonathan Huberdeau/Aleksander Barkov in Florida. The Panthers have almost too many options for those roles as they also have Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart, Patric Hornqvist, Owen Tippett and Anthony Duclair. It wouldn’t be surprising if there were a rotating cast in the top six, depending on who is yielding the hot stick. With a $1 million cap hit, Verhaeghe would be first in line for a demotion.

7. Frederik Andersen

Andersen needs to be behind a team that will score plenty of goals, as he’s not good enough to win games on his own. There may be a lot of people who believe the Hurricanes have better defensemen than the Leafs had, but that defense is more suspect with the loss of Dougie Hamilton and Jake Bean. Andersen will also have Anthony DeAngelo in front of him, who isn’t known for his strong defense.

6. Rasmus Dahlin

Just like a player higher on this list, Dahlin is going to be a victim by how much worse his team became in the offseason. A year ago, Dahlin had a horrific plus-minus and an 82-game pace of 34 points while averaging fewer than two shots per game. Now, he’s on a team without Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Taylor Hall. Dahlin may eventually turn into a great fantasy asset, but this year will not be that year.

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5. Trevor Zegras

We’re officially at the point where Zegras is overhyped. I’m a huge fan of his (I have him in a keeper league and dealt him away last season in a notable trade in another), but expectations this season are way overblown. He’s on every list as a breakout star or sleeper candidate. What are you expecting from Zegras? Anaheim had the league’s worst power play last season, so you can’t expect a lot of man-advantage points. He doesn’t hit and you should brace yourself for a negative plus-minus. The question becomes, how many points would he have to get to make up for the deficiencies in other categories?

4. Ty Smith

This may seem like an easy call, but there are plenty of fantasy general managers reaching for Smith in one-year pools. On average, he’s the 35th defenseman selected in Yahoo leagues, even though he’s injured and may not start the season on time. Smith isn’t a big producer for shots, hits, PIM, blocked shots or power-play points. So why exactly are you drafting him? He’s also pushed down the depth chart thanks to the next person on this list.

3. Dougie Hamilton

I read one preseason expert that predicted that Hamilton would get more points this season than either Victor Hedman or John Carlson. I like Hamilton as much as the next guy, but Carlson has put up at least a 55-point pace in six of the last seven seasons and at least 68-point pace in each of the last four. Hedman has at least a 63-point pace in each of the last five. Hamilton is now on a team that ranked 26th in goals per game and 28th in power-play percentage last season. He will help boost those numbers, but it won’t be a miraculous turnaround for a team that is still rebuilding.

2. Jakob Chychrun

Chychrun will be an absolute stud in a few years, but wow, is Arizona ever expected to be a horrific team. At least last season, Chychrun had Conor Garland, Christian Dvorak, Michael Bunting, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and a few others to help. Those players have been replaced with Alex Galchenyuk, Andrew Ladd, Shayne Gostisbehere, Loui Eriksson and other players that will struggle to score. The power play will be atrocious (so fewer power-play points for Chychrun) and his plus/minus will be awful. Chychrun might reach 40 points, but he’s not worthy of remaining a top-20 pick among defensemen.

1. Cole Caufield

In the past week, I’ve drafted in two one-year leagues where Caufield was a reach. Last week, he was selected in the middle of the eighth round in a basic Yahoo league, just ahead of Blake Wheeler and Anze Kopitar. On Sunday — in a league format that included hits, blocked shots, faceoff wins and PIM, but no shots — he went in the seventh round. Caufield’s plus/minus won’t be high, Montreal spreads out their power-play units, and he doesn’t hit. You’re only going to be drafting Caufield for goals and maybe shots, and that’s it. Even in the goals categories, there’s no guarantee he will net that many. Since 2006-07, only 10 rookies have managed to post 30 goals in their rookie season, and seven of them were arguably either elite or played with elite players. Caufield is neither. In a keeper pool, yes, he’s a must-grab with a high pick. In a one-year league, you’re better off going with a veteran. A great year for Caufield may be the same as poor seasons for Wheeler, Kopitar and a bunch of other veterans.

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