Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – What is the upside – in a points only league – for each of these players, and will any of them approach that number in 2021-22: Sam Bennett, Jesse Puljujarvi, Eeli Tolvanen, Casey Mittelstadt, Pavel Zacha, Jordan Kyrou?

Each exceeded expectations in 2020-21. The question is how much more can they offer beyond what they've already showed. Let's assess them in order from oldest to youngest.

Bennett impressed Florida enough for them to ink him to a deal that all but locks him into the top six. Early action has seen him pick up where he left off, such that he genuinely looks like he could be the next version of Cam Neely, John LeClair or Markus Naslund, three players who were highly touted but faltered on their original teams only to then turn into stars once they moved to a new squad which was a better fit. As far as Bennett's upside and when he'll reach it, I think 75+ points is realistic, with a shot at point per game or better output if he becomes a PP1 staple and Florida remains an offensively potent team. At 25 it is realistic that he reaches his upside this season.

All Zacha has done is up his scoring pace in the past four seasons, and by a higher amount each time. The questions are when and at what point total this will end. Last season was key in that for the first time he averaged over 1.6 SOG per game in a season, ending with 2.1 overall. Yet oddly in his two most productive quarters (i.e., Q2 and Q4) of 2020-21, when he posted 23 points in 26 games, he didn't average even two SOG per game. Among the keys to his 2020-21 was finally taking the ice for more than 50% of New Jersey's man advantage minutes. Of concern is Zacha does not skate on a line with Jack Hughes, who, once back from injury, is poised to reclaim his spot as top line center in New Jersey. Nico Hischier is a nice consolation prize, but that likely caps Zacha at a lower ceiling than if instead he was tethered to Hughes. I think Zacha is likely to top out in the 60s because of his still low SOG rate, line placement, and not commanding top PP time, hitting that mark in the next season or two.

Kyrou started and ended 2020-21 strong, but failed to average even a point per every other game in Q2 and Q3. Although he's on fire to begin 2021-22, can it really last, especially with still low ice time and PP scraps? He's definitely doing his best to force St. Louis' hand, but he's being held back somewhat by the presence of Vladimir Tarasenko and David Perron, both of whom might not be with the Blues come 2022-23. While that's good news in that it opens up top six time and maybe a spot on PP1, can Kyrou step up and be an everyday contributor? It's difficult to say for sure. Yes, his SOG rate has increased every season, and he scored at a 52-point-pace in 2020-21 despite only 14:25 of ice time per game, and his IPPs were solid. As such, there probably is more there. His point production should find its way into the 60s if/when his ice time improves, with a shot at 70+ if all goes well, including him landing on PP1. Next season will be very telling. For this season though, I see him in the upper 50s.

Puljujarvi did not impress me in 2020-21. He had a 48.1% IPP, putting him 20th from the bottom among all forwards who played 40+ games and none of those with a worse IPP having as high an OZ% as JP's 59.5%. Those numbers did not foretell great things on the horizon. Yet early signs are not only that JP is tethered to Connor McDavid, but that he's taking the next step, perhaps on his way to becoming a real scorer. Let's not forget that as a bigger player his breakout threshold should be later, coinciding exactly with this season. The worry is no winger has ever managed to stick with McDavid for an extended period, with it being more of a revolving door. That being said, JP looks to have the chops to end that cycle. Not everything is perfect though, as Edmonton is opting for Ryan-Nugent Hopkins and Zach Hyman on PP1 rather than JP, although that too could change if JP continues to thrive. If he manages to do what has yet to be done and truly stick with McDavid, 70+ points per season – including this season – should be a cakewalk; but point per game production would be unlikely without accompanying PP1 time. If everything truly aligns for him, he might be the only one of the six who could eventually taste 90+ points.

Tolvanen has it tough since many of Nashville's forwards are past their primes but the team still plays them a good amount. Look no further than Mikael Granlund leading the team in forward ice time the last two campaigns despite both seasons being on the verge of unrestricted free agency and poor scoring. Add to that Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene, and you get three underachieving minute eaters. The good news is Tolvanen is a winger, while they mainly play center, so there should be a spot for him to occupy in the top six and even on PP1, where, even as a rookie, he was a regular. The issue is Nashville's youth movement is not yet upon us, so Tolvanen's ceiling won't come into play for likely a few more seasons, once the veterans have given way for the crop of young forwards to make their mark. There might be associated growing pains when that finally happens, so Tolvanen is in a situationally bad spot. This means that that although he has the talent to be a 60-point player now, the circumstances are not there, and as such he should languish in the 50s for a while before a few years down the road rising to the 60s and ultimately the 70s if the team rebuilds a successful core.

Lastly there's Mittelstadt, whom many poolies had written off as a bust until suddenly, when the pressure was off and the shadow cast by Jack Eichel was gone, he posted 17 points in his last 22 games for 2020-21, looking every bit a former eighth overall pick. With that monkey off his back, Mittelstadt should be primed to succeed once he returns from injury. Moreover, early returns for 2021-22 suggest Buffalo might not be as much of a train wreck of a team as was expected. If they still do perform poorly, someone has to score even on lousy teams and it's all but assured Mittelstadt will get ample opportunity to do so. Still, he's not superhuman, such that he probably will produce in the 50s until his mid 20s, when he could be primed to explode into the 70s or even point per game levels.

Topic #2 – How much of a negative impact, if any, will/would the absences of Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby have on the production of Jake Guentzel?

This question arose due to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin both being hurt, yet it's also relevant for a time when one or both will be retired or have slowed. Guentzel arguably has earned a spot as one of the top three wingers to play for the Penguins during the Crosby/Malkin era, with the other two being Phil Kessel and James Neal. Although Malkin has been hurt plenty of times since Guentzel entered the league, until now Crosby has missed more than a handful of games in just one season: 2019-20. How did Guentzel fare when that occurred?

Very well it turns out, as Guentzel had 14 points in the 17 games where both he and Crosby played, and 29 points in 22 contests where he was active but Sid wasn't. What's the catch? He was slotted with Malkin while Sid was injured, such that when the dust settled on the season a mere seven of Guentzel's 43 points came without one or both of Crosby and Malkin also being on the ice. Here's the thing – he shared the ice with one or both roughly on 85% of his shifts. By scoring 36 of 43 points while sharing the ice with Sid and/or Geno, that translates to 83% of Guentzel's points, meaning 17% of his points came during the 15% off his season-long shifts not shared with one or both of Crosby and Malkin. That certainly looks like he was able to produce without either one.

I know what you're thinking though – how about the power play? Of the ten PPPts Guentzel tallied in that same 2019-20 season, eight came with Gino and/or Sid on the ice, but two didn't. This was despite his PP shifts with one or both on the ice accounting for only about 93% of his total PP Time. Again, 20% of his PP scoring came in the 7% of the time he didn't happen to share the ice with Gino or Sid; that's a positive sign.

Guentzel owners, if you were worried about what will/could to happen to him in games without Crosby and Malkin also playing, you should breathe at least somewhat easier. That's because based on data from 2019-20, it appears Guentzel has the talent to score even without either of them in the line-up, and as I write this Guentzel has played four total games in 2021-22, tallying three points. Not superb, but still within his usual range.

Topic #3 – Which elite player should be the best solely in terms of goal scoring: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak, and Mika Zibanejad?

I can see why this was asked, as over the past five seasons Pasta has averaged, cumulatively, 0.51 goals per game, while Kucherov is at 0.50, McDavid is at 0.49, and Draisaitl is at 0.48. That's a lot closer than I would have expected, and I'm guessing I'm not alone in that regard. Zibs was lower, at 0.42; however, if we look at just the last two seasons, Zibs is tied with Draisaitl and Pasta for the lead at 0.58, with McDavid not far behind at 0.56 while Kucherov is at 0.49. On paper they all look pretty close. Let's dig a little deeper.

If we look at Kucherov's scintillating 2021 playoffs, his sky high point total came via averaging more than an assist per game, with only eight apples in 23 total contests, plus 19 of Kucherov's 32 playoff points came on the PP, where traditionally he's more of a set up guy. Still though, Kuch, when healthy, is seemingly separated from Steven Stamkos for good at ES, with linemates Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat not being snipers, so Kuch might revert back to more of a goal-scoring slant. On the other hand, he's now 28 and thus probably doesn't have another gear, especially after yet another major injury.

Zibs is the same age as Kuch but has been a late bloomer in terms of scoring, SOG and goals per game. He might be the best center sniper in the NHL not named Auston Matthews. After a mere three goals in his first 23 contests for 2020-21, he ended with 21 in his final 30. Still, his best goal scoring season saw him shoot just under 20%, and even with his slow start to 2020-21 his SH% was 14.0%, or right at his career average. The real Zibs probably isn't what we saw in the 2019-20 or 2020-21 seasons, but instead something in between, which is quite impressive but not enough to be the best of this group.

With Pasta there's concern that he'll be put on the second line to try and balance things more for the Bs. Even if that doesn't happen, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand are now a combined 69 years old, and they can't go on producing like they have forever. Maybe that means Pasta becomes the driver, benefitting them as they've benefitted him?

As for the Edmonton guys, not only has McDavid's scoring pace increased every season of his NHL career, but so too has his goal scoring rate. With him not showing signs of having peaked, he is the one of the five who's most likely to still have more in the tank. In contrast, Draisaitl has seen his shooting percentage creep downward each of the past two seasons, and his goals per game rate for 2020-21 was 0.53 after two seasons of it being 0.60 or better. He's also seemingly at his peak, as his scoring rate crept down slightly in 2020-21.

So number one goes to McDavid and last place to Kucherov, especially given his injury. The others are pretty close, but I'd give second to Draisaitl, followed by Zibs and then Pasta.

Topic #4 – in a points only keeper, which two are the best of Anze Kopitar, Sam Reinhart, and Elias Lindholm??

This is a tough one, because it's really about how long Kopitar can keep chugging along, since he's seven years older than Lindholm and eight years Reinhart's senior. Going into this season I'd have said for sure Reinhart would be one of the two, as it's points only and Florida seemed to covet him. Thus far though he's seen some time outside of the top six and PP1. It might be that he becomes a third line catalyst, and that would of course cause his fantasy value to plummet versus expectations.

Lindholm is better in multi-cat because he does a lot of everything. I covered him in a May Goldipucks column, where I noted that his 2020-21 production, which fell between his 2019-20 and his 2018-19 rates, was probably close to his norm, namely about 70 points, with a better chance to rise to 75 than to fall to 65.

Then there's Kopitar. Had the Kings not signed Phillip Danault, I'd say that Kopitar would be the obvious omission. However, having done so means that Kopitar likely will be able to focus more on offense than he has in years, as Danault will handle all the tough match-ups. How well does Kopitar figure to do at this age? Placing aside early 2021-22 results, Kopitar was always been very good yet almost never great. In fact, no forward had more seasons of production between 0.8 and 1.0 points per game by age 33 than Kopitar's 12. Yes, out of his 14 seasons in the league only once was he below that range and only once above it.

Let's look at the age 33+ performance of other centers who had at least eight such seasons and have since retired, namely Mats Sundin, Doug Weight, and Vincent Lecavalier. Sundin had three more seasons of 76+ points, while Weight never again broke 60 points, and Lecavalier, who had already started to decline, didn't rebound. Can Kopitar do what Sundin did? On paper the answer is yes; however, what of Gabriel Vilardi, Quinton Byfield and Alex Turcotte. Yes, all three are still young and not in a position to threaten Kopitar's "spot," but odds are that one of the three makes enough progress to chip away at Kopitar's plum minutes. Even if things were to go as well as they could, Kopitar is likely on tap for at most three more strong seasons.

If I were answering this in a few more weeks I'd have been able to determine whether Florida using Reinhart on the third line was temporary or his new normal. Even still, that as a question mark likely is enough to make Lindholm and Kopitar the keeps, especially if the team is looking to win now. If it's a rebuilding team, then Kopitar might have to be the odd man out.

Topic #5 – How would these six forwards rank in a points only format when looking at just their production this season: Denis Gurianov, Nick Ritchie, Jesper Bratt, Casey Mittelstadt, Victor Olofsson, Chandler Stephenson?

I'll look at this two ways – what is the floor and what is the ceiling for each player. Then I'll note where within that range I likely see each player fitting this season.

With Gurianov, the good news is he was a point per game player this preseason, with three of those points coming on the man advantage. He also had 2.5 SOG per game. The issue though is his minutes per game was only 13:11, which, if it continues, would never support production even close to that level. Still though, during his career to date Gurianov has yet to not improve his minutes, SOG, and scoring rate in a season, and I think he finds a way to insert himself into the middle six if not top six picture for the Stars. His ceiling would be 60 points and his floor would 40, with a better chance of him coming closer to the ceiling, but most likely finishing close to 50 in 2020-21.

Ritchie is a risk/reward pick. Toronto would like nothing better than to put him on a top six line and have him stick; but if he couldn't fill that role with the Bruins I'm not sure why he'd be able to do so with the Leafs. His ceiling is 60 points, but his floor is at or even below 30, and a lot would have to go right to approach the ceiling. The safe bet is for him to finish in the 35-45 point range right where he's been the past three seasons. Think of him as the new Troy Brouwer or Justin Abdelkader.

Bratt is guaranteed a spot next to Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier, and posted a 53-point scoring pace in two of the past three seasons. He hit his breakout threshold late last season, and at that point he rattled off a streak of 15 points in 17 games. Not a prolific shooter though, nor possessing great PP acumen, it means his ceiling is repressed a little. Still, his ceiling is 65 and his floor is 50, and he should once again be at or near the 55-point mark for 2021-22.

Mittelstadt was covered above. He's finally free from the Jack Eichel shadow, but he's also on a team that, despite some good early showings, looks to be almost AHL level. Still, even on the very worst teams points will come, and Mittelstadt likely will be a major driver of what little offense Buffalo manages to produce. His ceiling is 70+ points, even though he has talent for more, and his floor is not much lower at 50 points, which is probably the rate at which he'll score this season.

As for Olofsson, I don't see good things in store. Last season nearly half his points came on the PP, which is his bread and butter. His overall season also was worse than it seemed, as he had 12 points in his first 13 games, before then posting just 20 in his remaining 43 contests. With the Eichel-less Sabres unlikely to have a very good PP1, Olofsson's production will suffer. His ceiling is 50 points and his floor is 35, with about a point per every other game a safe bet.

Stephenson was still centering Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty before they got hurt, and even with those two scoring in droves last season, Stephenson produced at a 56 point pace. By Q4, Stephenson was shooting more (2.26 SOG per game, versus 1.6 for the season) and getting ample ice time (19:38 per game with 2:53 on the PP, versus 18:06 and 2:06 for the season). Just as importantly, he was responding, as he had 12 points in 15 games (65 point pace), and nine points in his last ten, during which he averaged 20:00+ in all but two contests. He also did this with a paltry overall IPP of 52.2%and a PP IPP even lower at 38.5%, on top of a 38.1% secondary assists percentage. Stephenson is in for a jump in future production, and I'd give him a ceiling of 75 points and a floor of 60, with 65-70+ very realistic. How well he does this season depends on the health of Stone and Patches, so far things in that area of course have not been good.

Based on likelihood of what will happen, for this season I'd put Stephenson first, then Bratt, Mitttelstadt, Gurianov, Ritchie, and Olofsson. However, if everything goes right for Ritchie, he could be as high as second, and Gurianov could move up as well, while if Buffalo indeed isn't as bad as people fear, Mittelstadt could leapfrog Bratt and Olofsson could climb above Ritchie.

Topic #6 – How should these five forwards be ranked in a points only league in terms of likely scoring over the next four seasons: Alexis Lafreniere, Kirby Dach, Kaapo Kakko, Eeli Tolvanen, and William Eklund?

I'll start with Tolvanen, as I covered him earlier as well. To reiterate, the issue with him is the over the course of the next four years for Nashville should still be the era of the "old guard" where the likes of Mikael Granlund (signed through 2024-25), Ryan Johansen (also on the books through 2024-25), and Matt Duchene (inked through 2025-26) will be in the picture, delaying the time frame in which talented young players such as Tolvanen, Phillip Tomasino and Cody Glass will reach what should be their true heights. Sure – Filip Forsberg could leave as a UFA; however, that might hurt these young players more so than help them. Tolvanen's point ceiling likely will be stuck in the 50s during this time frame, before rising once Nashvilles youth can make more impact.

Eklund made the Sharks as a just turned 19 year old and San Jose certainly needs all the help it can get when it comes to offense. That having been said, looking at players who made a major impact from ages 19-22 going back to 2010-11, the top ten scorers include just two (David Pastrnak and Matthews Tkachuk) who were drafted outside of the top four overall, and those two walked into great spots on very good teams. Eklund was picked early, but not quite that early, and he's not walking into a "sweet spot" like Pasta or Tkachuk did. As such it would be a stretch to predict significant success for him during this time span. Someone has to rank last, and I think it's him.

Dach concerns me because I'm not a huge fan of players whose value is tied to line placement. Sure, if he skates with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, he could put up monster numbers. But still lurking in the picture is Dylan Strome, who let's not forget was receiving the same hype as 2020-21 was unfolding and, if he's like his older brother, might take a bit longer to full hit his stride. Let's not forget Philipp Kurashev, who was slotted on the DeBrincat and Kane line in Q4 of 2020-21, plus Tyler Johnson, who was trialed in that spot early on. Dach also is still only 20, which is young to be centering a team's top line even if he's very talented.

Kaako and Lafreniere both are penciled in as top six players this season. The big issue is the PP, because if Pavel Buchnevich couldn't wedge his way into a spot there last season despite how well he was playing, it's difficult to see a reality where either of them is able to do so either. That having been said, Ryan Strome is a UFA after this season, and Chris Kreider, although signed through 2026-27, plays a rough and tumble style such that at his age he could start to break down at any time. As such, one or both of the two could land on PP1 as early as next season. Which one figures to be better? My money is on Lafreniere, as Kakko's level of struggle in his first two seasons has me unsure he'll make the leap as quickly. Meanwhile, Lafreniere quietly had seven points in his last nine games while skating alongside Mika Zibanejad, as a preview for bigger and brighter things to come. Both could be able to score in the 60s as early as this season, with Lafreniere all but assured to be in the 70s or even at a point per game level before the four seasons are over.

All things considered, the ranking would be Lafreniere first, Tolvanen second to last and Eklund last. Dach and Kaako are the wild cards. I'd give Dach the realistic edge given how Kaako has struggled early in his career; however, they could switch spots if Kaako's level of play rises in view of the talent around him and, at the same time, Dach is unable to permanently secure a spot on Chicago's top line. If Dach hits a home run on that line though, he could even vault into first. Realistically I'd put Lafreniere ahead of him – he's the safer bet.

Topic #7 – In a 12 team, keep 14 league with categories of G (1), A (1), +/- (0.25), Hit (0.1), Block (0.1), PIM (0.1), SOG (0.1), GWG (1), PPP (1), SHP (1), a team that isn't expecting to compete this season, and has Alex Pietrangelo and Neal Pionk, is looking to decide between the following defensemen with the future in mind: Erik Brannstrom, Vince Dunn, K'Andre Miller, Brandt Clarke. Which one would be the best choice?

This is an interesting dilemma because each one of them has lures but also drawbacks. Clarke is by far the youngest of the four, having only been drafted this year. However, with that comes the most unlimited potential, as he's been labeled as the best offensive defensemen of this year's draft; though let's not forget it was a weaker than usual class. Still, his junior stats were superb and LA has a bevy of forward prospects who'll likely be making their mark once he's ready to play in LA.

Brannstrom was surprisingly sent down before this season began, although it might suit him well to boost his confidence and have him hit his stride. No question he'll be back this season and his long-term outlook still seems bright, especially since Ottawa too is a team seemingly on the rise. Plus, while Thomas Chabot is signed for big money he's not translated heaps of PP time into heaps of PPPts, leaving a window open for Brannstrom.

Miller is hurt and helped by the team for which he plays, as the Rangers already have Adam Fox and Nils Lundkvist to provide blueline offense, but also Jacob Trouba to be a defensive leader. Where does that leave Miller? For 2020-21 he's been paired mostly with Trouba, which is good in that he can focus on offence while Trouba does the dirty work, perhaps even better than if he was sharing the ice with Fox or Lundqvist, where he'd have to fight for points. Still though, thus far he's not even sniffing the PP and that's something which he might have a hard time changing and overcoming beyond this season.

Dunn's fate depends largely on whether Mark Giordano re-signs with the Kraken, as it's Gio who is being used on PP1, not Dunn, whose owners had hoped a change of scenery would finally lead to Dunn getting deployment most conductive to scoring. Still, Dunn only turns 25 this week; so he has time to make a mark.

If this team didn't have solid retentions in Pietrangelo and Pionk, or was wanting to win now, I might say Dunn. To me this situation seems ideal for Clarke, as the team can be patient to wait for the big reward down the road. Brannstrom is tempting too, as he's closer and arguably possessing similar talent to Clarke; however, there's no Thomas Chabot in Ottawa, other than Drew Doughty, who'll be likely old enough to cede offensive minutes once Clarke arrives.

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