The Journey: Three Underrated WJC Players Poised for Breakouts
Ben Gehrels
2021-12-25
Happy Holidays and welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we'll be considering an interesting aspect of U20 tournaments like the World Juniors: every year, certain players see massive bumps in fantasy value that can be exploited during a post-tournament sell-high window.
Treat yourself this Christmas and use your Journey insights to rip off a fellow manager who only follows prospects for one week at the end of December! You deserve it.
Many top prospects consistently play above their age group against older players, so this is a rare opportunity to see how they measure up against their peers. When a player performs well at the WJC, the hype machine can really get going. Remember when Samuel Fagamo scored 13 pts in only 7 GP at the 2020 WJC? Since then, he's scored 28 pts in 53 AHL GP—respectable totals for a young player in a league like that but not eye-popping. If you traded Fagemo in 2020, you probably haven't regretted it.
The trick for fantasy managers is to use these somewhat overinflated jumps in value to your advantage. If you can grab the right player for free beforehand, there’s a decent chance you’ll be able to sell high on them during or after the tournament once the broader public becomes aware of how talented they are.
Don’t discount the power of nationalism at international events like these either: if a player helps put your country’s team over the top, you may well feel a desperate need to have them on your imaginary roster. But that’s where savvy managers can exploit these emotional highs to gain leverage over their competition.
Here are three players to acquire now as good bets to see their value increase over the coming weeks. If things break right, you’ll either have a solid prospect or a desirable trade chip.
Mackie Samoskevich (FLA)
Taken at the end of last year's first round, Samoskevich was seen as a skilled but lower-ceiling player than top picks like teammate (at the time) Mathew Coronato. This year, Samoskevich is being somewhat overlooked again on the University of Michigan's historically stacked NCAA team. His 11 points in 19 GP pale in comparison to the point-per-game or better outputs of the other four Michigan players competing in the WJC (Matty Beniers, Owen Power, Luke Hughes, Kent Johnson).
The plus side to Samoskevich's lack of eye-popping numbers at the USHL and NCAA levels so far, however, is that he's likely still available in many keeper and dynasty leagues—unlike other top players at the tournament.
So far everything is lining up for a Samoskevich breakout at the WJC. Heading into the US-Finland exhibition game on Thursday night, Samoskevich was pencilled in as the team's top RW alongside Beniers and Brett Berard, displacing both Coronato and Chaz Lucius. He was also seeing time on their top power play unit during practice. There will most likely be line-shuffling but it's an excellent indication that the US coaching staff like what he's bringing to the table.
Samoskevich is a fast, elusive skater with an excellent wrist shot who thrives in transition and with the man advantage. Watch in all three clips below how Samoskevich receives a pass, attacks the middle, beats his man with a slick move, then gets a hard shot off from a high-danger area.
In all three situations, Samoskevich isn't content to shoot from the perimeter, hoping for a screen or a deflection. He also doesn't try to beat two or three players by himself or carry the puck all around the offensive zone instead of utilizing his teammates—bad habits that skilled players sometimes pick up in junior. This awareness to drive in, change the angle, then get his shot off quickly is one reason why Samoskevich's skill set has been described as projectable or translatable to the NHL.
If you're looking for another reason to like this guy, the NHL Network recently profiled Samoskevich and his family, who live and breathe hockey and hail from Sandy Hook, CT.
Xavier Bourgault (EDM)
Bourgault looks a bit like the Canadian Samoskevich: he's a late-first round pick who’s been somewhat overlooked but is starting out as Canada's top-line RW alongside Shane Wright and Cole Perfetti ahead of players like Dylan Guenther, Mavrik Bourque, and 2023-eligible Conor Bedard.
Picked two spots ahead of Samoskevich in 2021, Bourgault's draft stock was repressed by the fact that he played in the QMJHL, the 36th best league in the world in terms of NHLe with an equivalency of 0.113—a step back from the other two main Canadian leagues, the WHL (0.141) and OHL (0.144). So even though he scored 40 pts in 29 GP last year and has 42 pts in 24 GP this year (including almost a goal per game), statistical models and fantasy analysts tend to take that production with a grain of salt because of where he's playing.
Regardless, putting up close to a goal per game is impressive, and this early promotion shows that Canada’s coaching staff have taken note. Even if he ends up moving down the lineup in favour of someone like 2023 draft-eligible phenom Conor Bedard, Bourgault is another prospect to acquire now in keeper and dynasty formats before managers realize just how good he is. When Bourgault moves up next year to play for Edmonton's farm team in the AHL, he'll increasingly be thrown into the "might play with McDavid and Draisatl" conversation and it'll be very tough to acquire him.
Here’s a glimpse into some of his recent success when he scored nine points in three games earlier this month. It’s interesting to note how many of his goals appear to be tap-ins and one-timers with the goalie out of position, but you can still see his precise shot and quick hands in tight.
Alexander Pashin (CAR)
The Canes have made a passion project out of drafting smaller, high-potential prospects like Pashin in the later rounds of the draft. Clocking in at 5-7 and 154 pounds in his draft year, Pashin was passed over round after round until Carolina finally rolled the dice on him with the 199th pick.
Even with the shift over the past few years towards smaller, faster players, Pashin is definitely still tiny by NHL standards. Brayden Point is often held up as a poster boy for smaller players thriving in the modern NHL but Point has three inches and 30 pounds on Pashin—that’s a big difference when it comes to physical puck battles. It’s going to be tough for Pashin to drive to the net and hold his own against men in a professional league.
…At least that’s what execs from the other 31 teams thought. But after exceeding a point per game in his draft year playing in the MHL, the Russian junior league, Pashin is currently making the Canes scouting team look really good with an impressive 18 points in 24 GP (13 goals) against men in the VHL, the Russian equivalent of the AHL. Size doesn’t seem to be slowing him down just yet.
Pashin started out this year’s tournament as Russia’s second-line left wing, scoring an improbable goal from along the goal line in an exhibition game against Canada.
He of course got lucky on that one. But also, it was a hard, unexpected shot and that’s the kind of creativity one likes to see from offense-first prospects like Pashin. As this tournament gets going in earnest, hopefully we’ll get to see more of the speed and sniping that netted him two goals in this VHL game last month.
Compared to teams in years past, Russia’s submission to the 2022 tournament feels a bit light on high-end offensive talent. If Pashin can continue finding ways to work himself onto the score sheet at the WJC and afterwards back in the VHL, his fantasy stocks will continue to rise.
Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.
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