A couple of years ago, I posted this article and was asked to provide updated thoughts by a reader. Checking that article again, I found it interesting. Seeing the value of players then versus now. I thought I nailed it, though Fox is obviously no longer a "long shot". Hey – at least I mentioned him!

The arrival of Cale Makar, Fox, and to a lesser extent Quinn Hughes, has really changed the way teams are running their offense. I thought this was coming a decade ago, but it needed elite young defensemen to arrive and seize the league by the jockstrap and force the matter. And now, in this copycat league, you are seeing teams not only place high value in puck-moving defensemen, but using the ones they already have in more of an offensive manner (see Ekblad, Aaron). Because of this shift, I was forced to increase this list from the 20 names that I had here two years ago. We're going with a nice, even 28!

So let's dig in on the defensemen circa 2022.

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Odds Slim-to-None

28. Adam Boqvist – Step 1: Stay healthy. Step 2: Get a different coach or find a new team. The point-per-game talent is there with this guy, but he won't get 80 points if he plays only 70 games. He also won't get there while in the Columbus system.

27. Jakob Chychrun – Step 1: Stay healthy. Step 2: Hurry up and get traded! I actually see Chychrun's talent topping out in the high-50s or low-60s. But if he finds the right landing spot, his production could easily get a 30% boost. And one healthy season out of six isn't very reassuring.

26. Jamie Drysdale – So far my opinion on Drysdale has been rather tempered. Personally, I would be pretty surprised if he ever makes it to 55 points. I think of him more as a likely 50-point PP quarterback. But he's only 19 and I would like to give him a couple more seasons to show more so I won't rule him out just yet.

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The Long-Shots

25. Tyson Barrie – Just four months ago, Barrie would have been in the "sure thing" category. Connor McDavid? A new contract in his back pocket? Coming off of a 70-point (equivalent) season in which he tallied 46 points in his last 48 games? Seems like a no-brainer. But now that he has his new contract, he can't seem to figure out how to help a team with McDavid and Leon Draisaitl score on the power play? And Evan Bouchard has not only arrived, but is showing that he is vastly superior in every aspect of the game. That means that Barrie's chances have dropped from what seemed to be 80%…all the way down to 8%. And if he doesn't turn things around and have a miracle in these next few months, it will slip to 0%.

24. Filip Hronek – Hronek is a solid two-way blue-liner who will probably top out in the high-50s or low-60s. However, the Red Wings seem to have something really special going on with their youth and when everything falls into place in three years, Hronek might be the Toews to Seider's Makar.

23. Seth Jones – Chicago has a better team than they are showing. Regardless, if they ever put it all together and start scoring in droves, Jones moves from a 60-point defenseman to 70 or even 80. He's still only 27 and his best offense is still ahead.

22. Nils Lundkvist – The much-hyped top prospect defenseman from Sweden checks all the boxes. Including offense. But there is some guy ahead of him on the PP depth chart, so don't look for meaningful numbers from Lundkvist for at least four years. He may become New York's version of Sam Girard in two.

21. Devon Toews – I would have thought, two years ago, that 50 points was a stretch. Today it looks like he has a shot at 70 despite missing 11 games. And his partnership with Makar is still only beginning.

20. Zach Werenski – I strongly doubt that Werenski bets past 60 points while in Columbus. But he's still only 24 and who knows how this team looks in six years (when his contract ends).

19. Aaron Ekblad – Here is an example of a player who is being used in a more offensively-optimal manner. And he's on the high-flying Panthers. This team doesn't look as if it will give up on scoring a crap-ton of goals anytime soon, so Ekblad will have several kicks at the 80-point can. He's still only 25.

18. Bowen Byram – An elite prospect who could easily be a point-per-game player, even behind the talent that he's currently behind. But he's a long shot because his career is in serious jeopardy. His concussion issues are well-documented, and he's taking them a lot more seriously than most players. If he feels any threat to his quality of life at all, there is the risk to fantasy owners that he cuts his career short. Not a lot of young players (not any?) would do that – they would give their career a couple more tries. Hell, they would probably return from each concussion sooner than he would, too. And that may not be a good thing.

17. Scott Perunovich – After dominating the NCAA, Perunovich made a splash as a pro with 20 points in 12 AHL games. He's the heir-apparent to Torey Krug and if he can stay healthy (right now I'm starting to wonder), then his upside is quite high.

16. Thomas Chabot – As soon as Ottawa finishes their development and fills out their roster with capable bodies, Chabot will see things open up for him again. Right now he is forced into the role of two-way blueliner.

15. Miro Heiskanen – It will be a long time before I forget what this 22-year-old did back in the 2020 playoffs.

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A Strong Case

14. Evan Bouchard – The 22-year-old is, slowly but surely, inserting himself into Edmonton's power-play plans. It was always the plan, but it wasn't supposed to happen for another couple of years. Otherwise, why sign Barrie? But Bouchard is already better than Barrie. A full season of him running this high-octane power play will be scary.

13. Rasmus Dahlin – He's in his fourth NHL season and he's…21? Yes, I had to double-check it myself. An elite franchise defenseman who only recently stopped being a teenager. And this is the second time he's produced at a pace of higher than 50 points.

12. Tony DeAngelo – Just going by skill and stats, DeAngelo is a lock. Money in the bank. He's getting 80 points. But besides skill and stats, we also need to factor in mouth and brains. That risk will always be there and that takes away his "sure thing" status.

11. Dougie Hamilton – Over the last two seasons, Hamilton has produced at a 63-point and 70-point pace. This season's pace is 55. But two of those seasons has seen very bad luck in terms of injuries. If he can put all that behind him, he would quarterback an improving New Jersey core.

10. Kris Letang – Now 35, I wouldn't have included Letang on this list. In fact, on the list two years ago I didn't. I said that he was too prone to injury and that the window has passed him by. But here he is, on pace for exactly 80 points and he hasn't been injured yet. So with Letang, he either makes it this year or take him off this list.

9. Moritz Seider – This year's Calder Trophy candidate is showing far more offensive talent than I saw coming. I had him pegged as a future mid-60s player, but he's looking like he'll do better than that. He's only 20, so you'll probably have to wait until he is 25 or 26.

8. Morgan Rielly – Rielly tallied 72 points just three years ago. Then the Leafs added Tyson Barrie and Rielly's numbers tumbled. Now he is back up to a 74-point pace. It wouldn't take much for the 27-year-old to reach 80.

7. Shea Theodore – The 26-year-old ended 2019-20 with 19 points in 20 playoff games. Combine that with the following season and he totaled 61 points in 73 games, which is a 69-point pace over 82. I think he could have a bit more in him to get to 80, but he needs all the offensive stars in Vegas to stay healthy for a full season.

6. John Carlson – Carlson would have made it there in 2020, but then the pandemic cut the season short. So he's already shown that he can do it over the course of 75 games (it was 69, but he had 75 points). But now that he's 32 and part of an aging Washington core, does he have another season like that in him?

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As Close to a Sure Thing as it Gets

5. Victor Hedman – With 36 games left in the regular season, Hedman needs 33 points. Barring injury, he should get there. But at the age of 31, he may only have two or three more legitimate shots at it.

4. Roman Josi – Josi had settled into a nice, steady pattern that saw him post between 0.68 and 0.75 points-per-game for five consecutive seasons (i.e. 56-62 points over a full season). His window was set. Or was it? In 2019-20 he exploded for 65 points in just 69 games before the season was cut short. And now this year, at age 31, he is doing it again with 44 in 44.

3. Quinn Hughes – So far in his young career, Hughes has averaged a 62-point pace. But he's only 22 and the team around him has gone through a lot of turmoil. It will settle down. Really, it will. I promise. And when it does, Hughes will be a point-per-game defenseman.

2. Adam Fox – If the NHL gets in their full 82 games, which they will, then Fox will get to 80 points. Done deal. And if he somehow fails, perhaps thanks to injury or what have you, then he has eight or nine more seasons in which to try. He's only 23, so this is gonna happen.

1. Cale Makar – Well, come on. His career average is 80 points. I'm serious, click his name and look it up. Beside the Career line in his stats you can see his 82GP Pace. He's only 23. It wouldn't surprise me if one day he reaches 100 points in a season.

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Follow me on Twitter for details and the official 'launch' announcement of the new Goalie Post! The two programmers have recovered from their COVID bouts and got back to work on the weekend. I'm hoping this week will see things finally moving forward again and I can have something positive to announce before the week is over.

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See you next Monday.