Eastern Edge: Caufield, Petry, Montembeault, and New Habs Values Under Martin St. Louis

Brennan Des

2022-02-22

The Canadiens made a coaching change on February 9th, relieving Dominique Ducharme of his duties and appointing Martin St. Louis as the team's interim head coach. It was a necessary move as the team looked listless all season, winning eight of their 45 games under Ducharme while averaging a league-worst 3.98 goals against and 2.20 goals for (also league-worst) per game during that span. In all fairness to Ducharme, he was dealt a bad hand. The Canadiens lost several important players during the offseason and suffered through a myriad of injuries during the year. However, he clearly wasn't helping things. We heard reports that the strategies Ducharme tried to implement were too confusing, which falls in line with what we saw during games, where players looked lost on most nights. In late December, Jeff Petry commented on how there was no structure to the team's play, which essentially sums up the Canadiens under Ducharme.

The Habs have looked like a different team since St. Louis took over as head coach. Sure, it's only been six games, but they've already managed three wins, averaging 2.67 goals for per game and 3 against. More importantly, the team has gone from looking lost and confused to decisive and confident. Some of that can be explained by St. Louis' concepts being easier to digest than Ducharme's convoluted teachings. After St. Louis' first game behind the bench, Jeff Petry revealed that the Canadiens switched to man-on-man coverage in the defensive zone, which led to much more clarity among the players.

I emphasize the contrast between Ducharme and St. Louis because it's important to highlight that the team's improvement over this small sample is something that can be sustained long term. We often see a team's play improve immediately after a coaching change. Players put in extra effort to impress their new boss, leading to better results for the team as a whole. However, this 'new coach boost' doesn't always last and players eventually settle into their place within the team's hierarchy and the pressure to impress their new coach gradually fades. Sure, some of what we're seeing now may be a product of players working hard to impress St. Louis, but I think more of it is explained by the new coach's simplified concepts. Smart and skilled players who were forced to overthink under Ducharme's intricate systems, now have a bit more freedom in St. Louis' concepts, which leaves room for them to rely on their own talents and instinct.

I don't think these last six games will end up being a small blip in a disastrous season. Rather, I think this recent stretch represents a sign of what's to come for Montreal in the second half. The way I see it, the Canadiens won't be the pushover that they were in the first half. From a fantasy perspective, I'd be slightly more cautious about starting a goalie against the Habs. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't bench a good starting goalie against Montreal. However, picking up a back-up netminder from the waiver wire just because they're facing Montreal may not be as effective as it would have been during the first half.

Now that I've established my stance that Montreal's recent resurgence has potential to be long-lasting, here are a few players who have played well since the coaching change and should continue to thrive as the season progresses.

The Small-Medium-Large Line

Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Josh Anderson, otherwise known as small, medium and large.

I'm not sure who came up with the name originally, but I certainly can't take credit for it as I saw it on Twitter. Heading into Tuesday's game against the Leafs, coach St. Louis said he could see Caufield, Suzuki and Anderson playing together for a long time. A few hours later, the trio showed us why, combining for three goals and displaying strong chemistry during a 5-2 win against the Leafs. One of their best chances didn't even end up in the back of the net:

They may not have scored on that play, but seeing Caufield dance past defenders before making a brilliant no-look pass to Anderson should illustrate the kind of confidence that the rookie is playing with right now. He has five goals and three assists through six games under Martin St. Louis, averaging 17 minutes of action a night. In contrast, Caufield averaged less than 15 minutes a night under Ducharme this season and posted just eight points through 30 outings – scoring just one goal on 74 shots during that stretch. Sure, a talented shooter like Caufield was never going to maintain a 1.4% shooting percentage over a full season, but I feel like what we're seeing now is more than just regression to the mean. Caufield is playing with more fire to impress his idol/coach, but unlike Ducharme, St. Louis has actually put Caufield in a position to succeed. The young winger can now play his game without fear of making mistakes that might result in demotion. Caufield is an elite shooter with great hands and St. Louis has allowed him to make good use of those talents in a consistent top-six role with players that complement his skillset. Suzuki is an incredibly smart player whose playmaking abilities pair well with Caufield's elite shooting, and Anderson rounds out the line well as a strong power forward and good skater who can move the puck up the ice. The trio will experience some ups and downs as the season progresses, but they've shown great chemistry in a small sample and have good potential to be a productive line down the stretch. Suzuki is rostered in 64% of Yahoo leagues and may be hard to acquire, but Caufield and Anderson are sitting on the waiver wire in 63% and 85% of leagues, respectively.

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The following goal is a great example what these three players can do together:

Jeff Petry

After posting a 63-point pace last season, Petry looked like a completely different player this year. The 34-year-old defenseman tallied just six points through 38 games under Ducharme this season. More concerning than the lack of production was his poor play. He was often out of position and frequently made questionable decisions when he had the puck. At first, I thought his struggles were a product of missing defense partner Joel Edmundson – who Petry thrived beside last year. I also thought Petry may have been less engaged this season due to the strict COVID-19 restrictions in Montreal – which eventually separated him from his family, who ended up staying in the States, where restrictions were more relaxed. However, seeing Petry return to form under St. Louis suggests that he had been hindered by Ducharme and his complicated systems. Petry has looked much more like himself after the coaching change, tallying 16 hits, 14 blocks, and five points in six games since St. Louis took over. He's still available in 53% of Yahoo leagues and could be a great addition to your fantasy roster down the stretch. I know there are currently some rumours swirling with the trade deadline approaching, but because of his sizeable contract and the fact that most contenders don't have much cap space, I think he's more likely to be traded during the offseason when teams have more cap flexibility.

Sam Montembeault

With the coaching change in Montreal, Montembeault has gone from someone you should absolutely, never ever roster on your fantasy team, to a somewhat viable option in deeper leagues. Under Ducharme, Montembeault posted a 2-8-4 record with a 4.10 GAA and .891 save percentage. Since St. Louis took over, the Canadiens netminder has won two of his four starts, registering a .925 save percentage and 2.43 GAA. It's important to keep in mind that the Canadiens will be focusing on developing young players as the season progresses. Young players will make mistakes, and defensive errors will lead to more goals against. In addition, a few players are likely to be shipped out of Montreal prior to the trade deadline, so roster downgrades could make Montembeault's life more difficult down the stretch. Nevertheless, if you're in desperate need of a spot start and Montreal isn't facing an elite team, Monty could be your guy.

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