Looking Ahead: Vatrano Better In New York
Andrew Santillo
2022-04-01
Odds are right now your fantasy league has the rest of this week and next to finish out the season which means the name of the game is monitoring ice time, injuries, and the schedule. If you're on the outside looking into a playoff spot or looking to make moves before a bye week, let's look to set you up with the players in good spots upcoming.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Sean Durzi, D, Los Angeles Kings (Rostered in 10% of ESPN leagues, 45% Fantrax, 19% Yahoo) – With Drew Doughty still on the shelf, Durzi has become the primary defenseman for the Kings. If you're in need of defense on your club, I think this could be a good addition before Doughty returns.
Doughty has been on the sidelines with an upper-body injury since March 7 and there hasn't been a date or game in place that's been set for his return. While he has been participating more in practice, there could be some games here upcoming for LA that you can pencil in Durzi to play a larger role on the Kings even strength and power play.
Durzi is skating on the top pair along with quarterbacking the Kings top power play, which has come an ice time bump from 18:52 a game to 24:22 along with more opportunities to shoot and be able to contribute. The Kings power play wasn't stellar in March with only seven goals for ranking them 26th in the NHL over that time, and while their even-strength offense slowed up a bit as well this is still a good club with a very good top six. I think the move here is if you're in the neighborhood for a low-owned defensemen, pick up Durzi for the time being until Doughty returns to the lineup.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Frank Vatrano, LW/RW, New York Rangers (Rostered in 58% of ESPN leagues, 27% Fantrax, 22% Yahoo) – I've stood by the Rangers fans here all season agreeing with them that this club needed another winger to really elevate their game going towards playoffs. The Rangers went out did just that and more brining in Andrew Copp, who for now is used as a center until Ryan Strome returns, and Vatrano.
Since coming over from Florida, Vatrano has six points in eight games and has seen his ice time increase from the average time on ice he saw with the Panthers. In Florida, Vatrano skated around 12:30 a game, while in New York that number has gone up to 15:22. Sure that's not a crazy number by any means, but with ice times beginning to stagger league wide it's where Vatrano is playing on the Rangers that interests me.
Vatrano has mainly been skating on New York's top line alongside Wayne Gretzky 2.0 Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad and that's a great spot to be. So far in their sample together of 46:22 played they have a 66.7 Corsi %, and while I think that number may regress a bit, it's very encouraging. Vatrano doesn't see much time on the power play with New York giving the bulk of their time to their first power-play unit, but I still think he's worth an add if you're looking for a winger here down the stretch.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Gabriel Landeskog, C/LW, Colorado Avalanche (Rostered in 85% of ESPN leagues, 95% of Fantrax, 84% Yahoo) – Landeskog had knee surgery a little over two weeks ago and so far, it doesn't look like we'll be seeing him back on the ice anytime soon. This my fantasy friends, is an issue. Landeskog is a very high owned player on an elite scoring club and the unknown of his status is something that we need to address how to attack going forward.
Thus far the Avs have only listed Landeskog as Out, rather than put him on IR and that's good and bad. In some leagues the Out status for a player is only reflected if a player does not play on the day of a scheduled game, while other's carry a player that has an Out the same as they would be if they were on IR. So how do we come at this situation? First off if you have IR slots available, great. Move Landeskog there and just keep tabs on if he is seen in a non-contact or regular jersey during an Avs morning skate. In the event you can no longer roster any more injured players then things get a little bit more complicated. If it's this week and next to decide your playoff hopes, you have to look at your IR and either drop players you know for sure will not be back or think if dropping Landeskog out right is the best idea if and when he eventually returns. At some point in fantasy there is no more tomorrow, you have to win now.
My thought from when I heard the news about Landeskog's eventual knee surgery was that yes, he would return at some point and that Colorado felt confident enough that he would either be able to return before the season ended or they would have enough to win a round without him if they had to. If in the next few days, it we haven't seen any news on the situation and you need a skater, I think it might be what's best. I get scrolling up and down your waiver for a replacement for a player like Landeskog is not in any way ideal, but it might be worth it to save your season.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Neal Pionk, D, Winnipeg Jets (Rostered in 81% of ESPN leagues, 92% of Fantrax, 80% Yahoo) – I feel like we all have players that for one reason or another, usually end up on one or more of your fantasy teams from season to season. The past couple seasons for me, Pionk has been my guy. Not necessarily someone I target, just so usually works out he's available around when I'm looking to add a defenseman. It's like the kid in high school who you're sort of friends with that for whatever reason is in four of your classes. The problem here though is how the Jets are using him and why it's been and going to continue to effect fantasy production.
No points in his past four games played and two in the last ten isn't great for starters and although Pionk still hits and blocks shots to keep his average fantasy points total a bit higher, 156 hits and 77 blocks is great from a D that takes a fair number of shots but the past few weeks we've seen Pionk's offense steadily decline and I think it has to do with how the Jets are using him.
Recently Pionk has been skating down on the Jets third pairing with Ville Heinola (who I like) but the time on ice has gone down with this along with the big issue here for him and other Jets defensemen not named Josh Morrissey. In the past week Morrissey's ice time has gone up from his average of 23:35 to 25:16, while Pionk and all other Jets defensemen's time on ice have gone down. With Morrissey seeing over 25 minutes the rest of the ice time for the higher owned fantasy players has fallen with Pionk averaging 19:49, Brenden Dillion down to 19:10, and although Nate Schmidt is out right now, even his time on ice had gone down to 17:38. On power play as well, Morrissey see's the bulk of the ice time at 7:05 in their last three games while all other defensemen see less than two minutes.
I think with Winnipeg fighting for their playoff lives this looks like the strategy they're going to be taking moving on into the last month of the NHL regular season. If there's a defenseman you have an eye on that's available dropping Pionk may not hurt you here.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from April 1 to April 13
Carolina – The Canes have a great, repeat that, great schedule in the coming days. Not only is it a little on the busy side which we love for higher owned clubs like Carolina but filled with games that should heavily favor the Canes. A home and home versus Buffalo followed by home games vs the Isles and Ducks next week is what's upcoming for Carolina.
Winnipeg – The Jets need every point they can find here to wrap up the regular season and this upcoming stretch might help them out some with meeting versus a Detroit club that looks like they've all but given up on the season and an Ottawa team that has really started to thin out their lines.
Florida – Of course I like Florida. Why wouldn't you like a club with six 20-goal scorers? (Giroux will make that seven here shortly). Florida will hit a stretch here we'll they'll see Buffalo twice and New Jersey. The last time the Panthers saw the Sabres they dominated with a 6-1 win, and the last time the Devils and Panthers faced off the game ended 4-1 Florida. Expect for more of the same upcoming.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Chicago – Chicago's top line has been better but blowing a 3-0 lead vs Vegas and then a 4-0 lead versus Buffalo this past week has been brutal for this Hawks club. The light schedule is taking me away from them here in the next week or so.
Vegas – Vegas only plays twice next week which isn't ideal for people with Knights on their fantasy roster, but this is exactly what the doctor ordered for this Vegas club. Seriously a quarter of their top players are hurt, this is a perfect chance to get heathy and try to secure the second wild card spot in the West.
Anaheim – The Ducks are 0-8-2 in their last 10 games played but you could have told me that they're 0-10-0 and I would have believed you. Along with the play on the ice the Ducks have a difficult stretch of games coming up with meetings against the Flames, who seemingly beat them every time they see each other, and Carolina. Fun run Ducks fans, but it looks like we're 11 months away from being 11 months away from another rebuild.
Friday, April 1st to Thursday, April 7th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.41 – Away WSH – Home CHI MTL TOR |
Ottawa 4.34 – Away DET MTL – Home DET NSH |
Arizona 4.30 – Away CHI STL – Home ANA VAN |
NY Rangers 4.30 – Away NJD – Home NYI PHI PIT |
New Jersey 4.25 – Home FLA NYI NYR MTL |
Steer Clear |
Washington 1.89 – Home MIN TBL |
Colorado 1.90 – Away PIT – Home PIT |
Winnipeg 2.15 – Home LAK DET |
Minnesota 2.66 – Away CAR WSH NSH |
Pittsburgh 2.70 – Away COL NYR – Home COL |
Saturday, April 2nd to Thursday, April 8th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.44 – Away NJD BUF – Home TOR BUF |
Carolina 4.40 – Away BUF – Home MIN BUF NYI |
New Jersey 4.25 – Home FLA NYI NYR MTL |
St.Louis 4.22 – Away CGY – Home ARI SEA MIN |
Dallas 4.19 – Away SJS SEA – Home NYI TOR |
Steer Clear |
Washington 1.89 – Home MIN TBL |
Anaheim 2 – Home EDM CGY |
Nashville 2.04 – Away OTT – Home MIN |
Vegas 2.10 – Away VAN – Home VAN |
Chicago 2.42 – Home ARI SEA |
Sunday, April 3rd to Saturday, April 9th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
NY Rangers 4.46 – Away NJD – Home PHI PIT OTT |
St.Louis 4.41 – Home ARI SEA MIN NYI |
Vancouver 4.35 – Away VGK ARI – VGK SJS |
Columbus 4.34 – Away PHI DET – Home BOS PHI |
Philadelphia 4.26 – Away NYR CBJ – Home CBJ ANA |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles 2 – Home CGY EDM |
Winnipeg 2.15 – Home DET COL |
Chicago 2.42 – Home ARI SEA |
Colorado 2.76 – Away PIT WPG EDM |
Washington 2.79 – Away PIT – Home MIN TBL |
Monday, April 4th to Sunday, April 10th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Carolina 4.61 – Away BUF – Home BUF NYI ANA |
St. Louis 4.41 – Home ARI SEA MIN NYI |
Columbus 4.34 – Away PHI DET – Home BOS PHI |
Dallas 4.30 – Away CHI – Home NYI TOR NJD |
Tampa Bay 4.20 – Away WSH – Home TOR BOS BUF |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 2.21 – Home SEA DAL |
Vegas 2.36 – Home VAN ARI |
NY Islanders 2.71 – Away DAL CAR STL |
Minnesota 2.75 – Away NSH STL – Home LAK |
Colorado 2.76 – Away PIT WPG EDM |
Tuesday, April 5th to Monday April 11th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Carolina 4.61 – Away BUF – Home BUF NYI ANA |
Winnipeg 4.34 – Away OTT MTL – DET COL |
Dallas 4.30 – Away CHI – Home NYI TOR NJD |
Montreal 4.15 – Away NJD TOR – Home OTT WPG |
Ottawa 3.94 – Away MTL NYR – Home NSH WPG |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles 1.91 – Away MIN – Home EDM |
Arizona 2.05 – Away VGK – Home VAN |
Chicago 2.21 – Home SEA DAL |
Vegas 2.36 – Home VAN ARI |
NY Islanders 2.71 – Away DAL CAR STL |
Wednesday, April 6th to Tuesday, April 12th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Carolina 4.37 – Away NYR – Home BUF NYI ANA |
Vancouver 4.35 – Away VGK ARI – Home SJS VGK |
Winnipeg 4.34 – Away OTT MTL – Home DET COL |
Calgary 4.34 – Away ANA SJS SEA – Home SEA |
Nashville 4.20 – Away OTT PIT – Home FLA SJS |
Steer Clear |
Colorado 1.85 – Away WPG EDM |
Columbus 2.30 – Away DET – Home PHI |
Edmonton 2.66 – Away LAK MIN – Home COL |
NY Islanders 2.76 – Away CAR STL – Home PIT |
San Jose 2.80 – Away VAN NSH – Home CGY |
Thursday, April 7th to Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Carolina 4.37 – Away NYR – Home BUF NYI ANA |
Winnipeg 4.29 – Away OTT MTL – Home COL SEA |
Nashville 4.20 – Away OTT PIT – Home FLA SJS |
Philadelphia 4.20 – Away CBJ WSH – Home ANA NYR |
NY Rangers 4.19 – Away PHI – Home PIT OTT CAR |
Steer Clear |
Vegas 2.26 – Away VAN – Home ARI |
Detroit 2.36 – Home CBJ OTT |
Edmonton 2.66 – Away LAK MIN – Home COL |
NY Islanders 2.76 – Away CAR STL – Home PIT |
Colorado 2.80 – Away WPG EDM – Home LAK |