It's the time where, every year, I face the music by revisiting the 15 Fearless Forecasts I made just prior to the start of the season. The purpose isn't just to see how well – or poorly – I did, as for each I also determine the lesson(s) that can be learned from the outcomes to help us either make the same types of successful predictions in the future or to avoid falling into the traps I made which led to me being wrong. Although I'm not trying to excuse any mistakes, I want to reemphasize these were called Fearless Forecasts for a reason, as in making them I tried to stick with predictions that were plausible yet not ones likely to be seen from other prognosticators. Be sure to read to the end, as I'll also review how you did in terms of your votes in the poll that accompanied the original column.

How did I grade each Forecast? Even though this is about hockey, I have always used baseball terms for the grading. A "Hit" means the Forecast came true, a "Miss" means it didn't, while a "Strike Out" is reserved for predictions where I was way off base. Lastly, there are "Foul Tips," corresponding to Forecasts that technically did not come true, yet where I was definitely onto something. Without further ado, let's travel back in time to review – and learn from – what I was thinking before the puck dropped on 2021-22.

FORECAST – Neither Mark Stone nor Max Pacioretty will score 70 points

RESULT – HIT (Both had injury issues and failed to play in even half of Vegas' games)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Certified Band-Aid Boys have that label for a reason; plus, when two players on the same line were so dominant compared to the third, their scoring likely was unsustainably elevate

As you'll see, several of my predictions were based on points per game, rather than straight points, as I wanted to factor in the possibility of injury. But here I was purposeful in not doing so, as I saw both of these two as injury risks given their Certified Band-Aid Boy status. Moreover, even if they'd played an entire season, Stone's points per game rate was 66 (down from 91) and Pacioretty's was 78 (down from 87), meaning I also was onto something in terms of their scoring rates dropping. My reasoning was that Chandler Stephenson, their linemate last season, had unsustainably low metrics, so he was bound take points away from them by hitting the scoresheet more this season, which he did when all three were healthy and playing together in the early going.

FORECAST – Alexander Wennberg will score at a higher points-per-game rate than Jared McCann

RESULT – STRIKE OUT (Wennberg's rate was 38, and McCann's rate was 55)

LESSONS LEARNED – Although sometimes struggling players can rebound when put into a new situation with a clean slate, it's rare; don't use small sample sizes; players who look better on paper usually are

As I said, these were Fearless Forecasts; and I'm certain no one else made this prediction. I figured Wennberg had ended 2020-21 on a positive note (ten points in his last 13 games) despite not being a featured player in Florida, and I could see this as a chance for him to have a new lease on his NHL life, as he was only 27 and had once scored 59 points. But this leopard didn't actually change his spots and he did what he'd done in most recent seasons, which is finish below a point per every other game. This also was – spoiler alert – the first of two times I was reminded not to rely on small sample sizes.

As for McCann, he didn't break out to the extent many thought he might, given what he'd done for the Penguins in 2020-21, due at least in part to being less of a featured player for Seattle. By that I mean he did not become a "the guy" player for the Kraken like some had envisioned, although he still got more ice time and had career bests in SOG rate and PP minutes per game, plus fared pretty well considering the team that was around him. I guess I should've heeded the predictions that were in Dobber's Fantasy Guide, as he basically nailed the scoring rates for both. That'll teach me!

FORECAST – Adam Fox will not finish in the top ten in defensemen scoring

RESULT – MISS (He finished 4th)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Superb talent plus superb deployment are a recipe for success, even if past comparables might suggest otherwise

What I said about Fox in the Fearless Forecast was largely echoed when I recently covered him in a Goldipucks column, which, to summarize, was his SOG rate is too low for him to be a truly elite scorer, and his IPPs were very elevated. And while I didn't get the Forecast correct, I'll note that between when I declared Fox too hot and the end of 2021-22, he posted 7 points in 10 games, versus 67 in 68 prior to that.

Still though, Fox clearly has shown he can produce despite defying conventional norms when it comes to how much he shoots the puck. Why is that? His deployment is amazing, and that, coupled with his top tier talent, is enough to elevate him to the upper echelon of rearguards. And let's not forget that as the season was coming to an end, he had just hit his 200-game breakout threshold, suggesting he might still have another gear. Would I value him the same as the likes of Cale Makar, Victor Hedman, and John Carlson for 2022-23 one-year leagues? No, as they're more proven and they aren't aberrations versus past comparables. While Fox does appear to still have a bright future, the things I highlighted in the Goldipucks column might hold him back from remaining among the very best of the best.

FORECAST – Patrik Laine will average under 0.30 goals per game

RESULT – STRIKE OUT (Laine averaged 0.46 goals per game, his highest rate since his second season)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – True skill can find a way to manifest itself, even under unfavorable circumstances

This was just a bad hunch by me, as I thought Laine had gone from supremely talented sniper and star in the making to grumpy enigma, what with him barely managing a point per every other game in 2020-21 despite playing for a new deal. Nevertheless, although his most frequent centers were Boone Jenner and Jack Roslovic during this season, his sniping success returned, seemingly proving once and for all that he's a true talent. I still wonder though if somehow Laine played better this season compared to last because he was on yet another one-year deal and knew this time he had to make it count, which he did. But once his wallet is fat from what should be a large, multi-year contract, I could see him start to ease off the gas pedal. In other words, I view Laine as a risk/reward player for 2022-23, especially if he stays with Columbus and they don't upgrade at the center position. Am I saying bet against him? No, as I learned my lesson there; however, I'm going to let others draft him because I don't want to risk getting stuck with the 2020-21 version of Laine instead of what we saw in 2021-22.

FORECAST – The GAA for the New York Islanders, as a team, will be below 2.00

RESULT – STRIKE OUT (The Islanders finished 7th in team GAA, but at 2.82)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – When something has only been done once in 20 seasons, it's not safe to bet it'll happen again; great offense usually outmatches great goaltending

I can't even blame this on the issues the Islanders faced, from 13 straight road games to start the season, to an injury to Semyon Varlamov, to a major team bout of COVID that forced the cancelation of many games, to a condensed schedule to end the campaign. This was just a major miss, no two ways about it. In fairness, I didn't think there would be so many dominant team offenses, what with players being out due to COVID and the fatigue of having to play an 82-game season for the first time since the 2018-19 campaign, plus the 2021 playoffs not ending until July, shortening the offseason. In the end it was the year when offenses ruled, making this prediction a huge fail.

FORECAST – Steven Stamkos will have more points on the Power Play than at Even Strength

RESULT – STRIKE OUT (Stamkos had 70 ESPs and 36 PPPts)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Making predictions based on several moving parts all needing to come true is not a recipe for success; entire lines are never set in stone

In hindsight, this seems like a prediction where rather than using data and/or metrics in order to make the forecast, I instead did the reverse, namely came to a conclusion then found stats that lent support to it. Although I could indeed point to things that lent credence to the prediction, there were a lot of ifs and assumptions in the supporting evidence, which is almost never a recipe for success.

How can you avoid failing into the same trap? Stick to proven data/metrics and draw conclusions from those, rather than twist things into knots to justify a prediction that plain and simple is a major stretch. One specific takeaway should be no matter what a team looks like it will do with its lines, things can and do change. This wasn't just limited to Tampa Bay, as who would've predicted David Pastrnak would be separated from Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand for a huge chunk of 2021-22? Also, what happened to Kirby Dach being stapled to Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat? Lines are never immutable. Forward duos maybe, but entire lines – you can never be certain how the chips might fall.

FORECAST – Juuse Saros will win 40+ games

RESULT – FOUL TIP (He stood at 38 wins with three games left to play, but got hurt)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – When you see a trend (re)emerging, you want to be ahead of the curve, and if a team has a weaker back-up, chances are all the more likely it will lean heavily on its starter

Yes, Saros didn't quite make it to 40 wins; but he did play in 67 games even though he missed the last two, with 67 being the highest total for any netminder this season. Fellow younger goalie Thatcher Demko appeared in nearly as many contests. How did I know to make this prediction, what with Saros having never even appeared in over 40 games in any prior season? Simple – by the time last season was ending Saros was playing on literally an everyday basis. Demko also had started to become the go to guy for the Canucks. These were trends on which one could confidently rely and, accordingly, from which one could draw reasonable conclusions. Of course, the teams not having great back-ups helped pad their start/appearance numbers for 2021-22, but this had solid roots back to last season.

What trends might be key to remember going into 2022-23? I alluded to it above, but it bears repeating here, namely teams not being afraid to break up lines that many thought were set in stone. We also saw examples of players on bad teams, like Timo Meier, Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, who nevertheless were productive, emphasizing that it can sometimes be better to be the best of an overall subpar bunch rather than a cog in the wheel of team which is stacked. Look at Florida Edmonton, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis, where most forwards were moved up and down the line-up and in and out of PP1 such that aside from a few top stars the others ran hot and cold to an extent you never knew who'd be poised to thrive at a given time. Let's not forget goalies, where up was down, right was left, and basically everything went haywire. Do I think the "zero goalie" approach now should be the norm? I wouldn't go that far; but drafting goalies early seems risker with each passing season.

FORECAST – Jason Robertson won't be one of the top five scoring forwards, per game, on the Stars

RESULT – STRIKE OUT (Robertson led all Stars forwards in points per game)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Be careful betting on post-injury bounce backs; don't latch onto comparables which are not based upon actual on ice metrics

I figured – very incorrectly – that Tyler Seguin would be as good as new after he'd had an offseason to recover from his injury, plus that both Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov wouldn't show their ages. Needless to say, those things certainly did not happen. All three looked old and past their primes, and were deemphasized in favor of Robertson, Roope Hintz, and a player who, ironically, was older than any of those three, Joe Pavelski. What I ignored is that, even prior to getting hurt, Seguin's game appeared to be slipping, Radulov had been injured and inconsistent, and the once great Benn was seemingly a victim of the effects of playing a rough and tumble style for many years.

Beyond those factors, there was flimsy evidence I dug up to suggest that Robertson was not primed for success, notably the older age at which he succeeded as a rookie. Yes, I've been right sometimes in the past when I looked at age as a player comparable; but it's inherently less predictive due to it not being an on-ice metric. In other words, when it comes to player comparables, one tends to have better success in relying upon them the more they have to do with actual performance.

FORECAST – Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale will combine to score 115+ points

RESULT – MISS (They combined to score 93)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Although some rookies can and do explode early, usually it's when they're on good teams and/or have superb linemates; and again, be careful relying upon a small sample size

I guess I drank too much Zegras/Drysdale Kool-Aid when I made this Forecast. I correctly figured that Anaheim would be improved; but they weren't better to an extent as to be able to help elevate these two enough for this prediction to come true. Also, it's asking a lot for players who've yet to even come close to their breakout thresholds to put a team on their backs and find major success. When looking at the best recent rookie performances, they tend to be from those who are either on top teams, where they succeed to at least some extent because the team's overall greatness, or, in the case of forwards, when slotted alongside other very talented guys. The other issue was that here too I relied on a small sample size when it came to Zegras, plus I was far too influenced by having seen several other highly regarded rearguards succeed right out of the gate, and figured Drysdale could do the same.

FORECAST – Josh Norris will score 75+ points

RESULT – FOUL TIP (Norris got injured and missed a chunk of games, but ended the season with 29 points in his final 30 games, showing had he played 82 contests this might've come true)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – This prediction was arrived upon as a result of on-ice metrics (consistency, PP prowess), making it not surprising to see it essentially come true

To review, I thought Norris would improve not just because the Sens would – and they did – but also because of how consistent Norris was in 2020-21 and how well he did on the PP. And sure enough, his PP prowess was still on full display and his stretch of point per game output over nearly half a season was a result of consistency plus some added explosiveness. For those of you reading this, take heed of how those metrics pointed to this result, rather than the result being predicted and then me reaching to find metrics to lend credence to it.

FORECAST – In 82 games, MacKenzie Weegar will score fewer total points than in 54 games in 2020-21

RESULT – FOUL TIP – Weegar finished with 45 points, or nine more than the 36 he amassed in 2021-22, but his team scored 4.11 goals per game in 2021-22 versus only 3.36 in 2020-21

LESSON(S) LEARNED – A rising tide can, and usually does, lift all boats

In fairness to me, who among us figured Florida would become the first team in over 25 seasons to average 4+ goals per game, ending with 4.11 per contest. By comparison, last season they averaged 3.36 per game, with 188 in 56 games. Weegar played 54 games, with Florida scoring a total of nine goals in the two he missed. In the 54 games where he played, Florida scored 179 goals, meaning he got a point on 20.1% of his team's goals. This season Weegar appeared in 80 games, in which the team had 331 goals, with Weegar scoring 45 points, meaning he had a point on 13.5% of Florida's goals. If Florida had scored at the same rate as last season, their goal total would've been 275; and 13.5% of 268 (to account for the two games Weegar missed) would be 36, meaning if not for the goal bonanza Florida had this season, my Forecast would've been a push. I'm not surprised, considering Weegar's IPPs, both overall and on the PP, were markedly down versus 2020-21.

Did Weegar help his team reach these offensive heights? I can see an argument for and against that proposition, as he certainly wasn't an integral offensive piece but his +40 rating and strong defensive presence allowed the team to play a more wide-open style at the other end of the ice. Still, those of you who think Weegar is improving just because his point total increased, keep in mind that as I've said many times in these columns, a rising tide often lifts all boats, with this being a textbook example.

FORECAST – Unless they start 55+ games, neither Petr Mrazek nor Jack Campbell will win 20 games

RESULT – MISS (Mrazek played 20 and only won 12, but Campbell started 49 and won 31)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Don't bet against those who are playing for UFA deals and have never had a big payday; although sometimes weaker teams are only as good as the goalie in front of them, strong teams can make even a below average goalie look very good

This one I don't feel too bad about, as I figured even the oft-injured Mrazek would be good for at least 30 starts. But Mrazek battled injures all season long and Campbell became the clear #1, first due to strong play but later because of no other viable options. While Campbell stormed out of the gate with ten wins in Q1 alone, his stats started to slide; yet he still won 60% of his starts in every quarter, which hammers home that a strong team can turn an even average goalie into a winner. Lurking beneath this is Campbell's status as an impending UFA who's never had a big payday, which some could argue might have led to some of his early strong play. When you're drafting goalies, do consider the team and the apparent motivations – or lack thereof – for them to play their best.

FORECAST – Alex DeBrincat will outpoint Patrick Kane on a per game basis

RESULT – MISS (Kane scored at a 96-point pace, versus 78 for DeBrincat)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Although father time does tend to claim victims Kane's age, those as talented as Kane and whose playing styles don't tend to decrease year-to-year can and do remain successful

Another season, another 95- to 100-point scoring pace for Kane. He seems well on his way to becoming an ageless wonder, as he stepped up when Chicago was a worse team and finished with the second best SOG and PPPt rates of his career. Can Kane do this forever? No; but he's only 33, and many players have maintained top tier production into their mid to late 30s, which Kane seems poised to do as well. What of DeBrincat? He was still every bit the sniper he was in 2020-21; however, inasmuch as he's not a do it yourself player like Kane – or at least not yet – he didn't pile on assists as well. It also didn't help him that unlike last season Dylan Strome played well and syphoned away points. Will DeBrincat outscore Kane at some point down the road? Conventional wisdom would suggest yes; but for the time being at least, the safest bet is to predict more of the same for Kane and hope for even better from DeBrincat, who, as a smaller player, won't hit his 400 game Breakout Threshold until next season.

FORECAST – Shayne Gostisbehere will score more points, on a per game basis, than any Flyer d-man

RESULT – FOUL TIP (Ghost vastly outpaced all Flyer rearguards with the exception of Ryan Ellis, who had four points in the three games he managed to play)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – When it comes to skaters – especially defensemen – there often is a "too many cooks" problem; in some cases, all it takes for players who have demonstrated track records of success to regain their scoring touch is a new lease on life

Normally there really are only so many points to go around. Even on the aforementioned Panthers team that scored 4.11 goals per game, just three players topped the point per game mark. For reference, there were more than two-dozen instances of a team with three point-per-game players in the same season since the last time a squad finished with over four goals per contest. When it comes to rearguards, this is even more of an issue, mainly because they depend on PP scoring a lot and most teams nowadays run a PP1 with just one d-man. Couple that with Philly having no clear-cut offensive defenseman, and it led to none of them hitting the score sheet a lot.

As for Ghost, he'd had a well-publicized fall from fantasy grace; but last season he did show signs of life, and went to Arizona, where there'd be no pressure or spotlight and he could do exactly what he's good at, which is create offense from the blueline. Add to that only one other d-man who was a "threat" to his production in Jakub Chychrun, and the road was paved for Ghost to succeed, which he did. Contrast this to Wennberg, for whom it was never clear he'd get great deployment, and sure enough he didn't.

FORECAST – At least one of Nikita Kucherov and Connor McDavid will have an individual Power Play Point total that is higher than the total number of Power Play Goals scored, as a team, by any of the other 30 NHL teams

RESULT – STRIKE OUT (A dozen teams had higher PPG outputs as a team than what Kucherov or McDavid would've had in 82 games based on their per game average)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Yet again, it's a recipe for failure to think of a conclusion and then try to justify it with evidence; even the best of the best are not so hugely talented as to be able to do something better individually than each and every one of the other NHL teams as a whole

If there's a running theme to this post mortem, it's that when I thought of predictions and tried to make them seem logical based on metrics, rather than the reverse, I failed big time. There's also the reality that individual players in today's NHL – even those as talented as Kucharov and McDavid – are not so great as to be able to achieve what, in this case, would've been a truly superhuman feat, which no one had done for at least the last 35 seasons, perhaps even longer. Or in other words, even greatness has its limits; and betting for something to occur which hasn't happened in ages is a losing proposition.

CONCLUSION AND YOUR VOTES

There's no way to put lipstick on a pig – this was one of my worst years yet in terms of not just how few I got right, but how many Strike Outs I had. In my defense, however, when it came to my actual columns I feel like I was a lot more on the ball. Why is that? Because I knew I had to be logical and I had more skin in the game. Looking back at the Forecasts, I feel like this season in particular, as I noted several times above, I simply fell into the trap of thinking of an idea for a Forecast and then finding logic which happened to be consistent with my conclusion. That's the big takeaway from this exercise – data and metrics are as important as ever, but they ought to be used to reach conclusions, rather than the other way around.

As for your votes, the top choice was the Weegar forecast, which was a foul tip. The other hits and foul tips finished as follows in the voting: Stone/Pacioretty – 2nd, Saros – 15th, Norris – 10th, Ghost – 5th, while the Strike Outs landed at 11th (McCann/Wennberg), 3rd (Laine), tied for 8th (Islanders), tied for 6th (Stamkos), tied for 6th (Robertson), and 4th (Kucherov/McDavid), although the last one I can look past because there was some confusion as to whether the vote was if one or both of the two would have more PPPts than at least one single team, versus what was truly intended, namely more than every one of the other 29 teams. Kudos to you for sniffing out some of those I got right or close to right, but not so great on the Strike Outs, which means either I did a good job selling you on them, or you fell into the same trap(s) as I did. Let's hope we all do much better for the 2022-23 campaign, when I look forward to again presenting my list of 15 Fearless Forecasts. Until then, enjoy the playoffs and offseason.

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Next week it'll be back to Roos Lets Loose content as per usual, with an edition of Forum Buzz. Looking ahead, my monthly mailbag column is just a few weeks away, so be sure to send your fantasy hockey question(s) to me for in depth, deep dive answers. You can either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, (2) send them to me via email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.