Ramblings: Avs Move On, Marchand Surgery, Down in Flames, Power-Play Time (May 28)

Ian Gooding

2022-05-28

Well, that was quite an ending to the sixth game of Colorado/St. Louis. Just when you were about to get up to go to the fridge for a refill or another snack in anticipation of overtime, this happened:

The unlikeliest of game-winning goal candidates, Darren Helm scored his first playoff goal since 2016. On this day in 2009, he also scored a series-winning goal to send the Red Wings to the Stanley Cup Final (2009 can't be that long ago, can it?) Helm entered this game on the Frozen Tools cold list with just a single point (assist) in the Avs' other nine playoff games, so no blame whatsoever if you missed out.

J.T. Compher scored the Avs' other two goals, which were his first two goals of the playoffs. Compher was also a member of the cold list with just two assists (both in one game) over his previous nine games.

The Avalanche outshot the Blues 39-20 in this game. Ville Husso made 36 saves for his first quality start in the four games that he played in this series.

Now it's time for the McSeries. McDavid. MacKinnon. Makar. Buckle up. The fun starts on Tuesday.

The Blake Coleman "no goal" will be debated all summer, especially in Calgary.

The officials' decision to waive the goal wouldn't have mattered if Calgary prevailed in overtime. That being said, the Flames also don't have an equal to Connor McDavid and "probably" still would have lost the series even if the Coleman goal counted. The Oilers were the better team in this series, plain and simple. Regardless, this is a tough pill to swallow if you're a Flames fan.

Calgary needed more from 6×6 free agent signing Jacob Markstrom, who allowed at least four goals in each of the five games. That's a single-game negative GSAA for each of the five games, which also works out to an .852 SV% for the series. We've seen better from Markstrom in the playoffs, specifically two seasons ago in the bubble with the Canucks (78.6 QUAL% in 14 GP).

In Calgary's post-mortem, you can also consider the lack of production from their top line. Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and Elias Lindholm combined for two points over their last three games. They might have been the main reason that Calgary won the Pacific, but they came up empty when they were needed the most. Now we wait and see whether the Flames have saved up enough money and can clear enough cap space to keep Johnny Hockey in Cowtown.

In a game where your best players have to be your best players in order to win, McDavid was exactly that. Even in a game where he was admittedly terrible, McDavid came through at the right time. He continues to stack up the points, having earned multiple points in 10 of 12 playoff games along with an eight-game point streak.

One more time, for your viewing pleasure (unless you're a Flames fan, in which case you can scroll down):

Don't forget about Leon Draisaitl, who has five consecutive 3+ point games while battling an ankle injury. If not for the exploits of McDavid, the Draisaitl story would receive a lot more attention. The Edmonton twin towers are far and away the playoff scoring leaders with identical stat lines (7-19-26). If the Oilers actually finished at the top of the league this season, these two might have gone 1-2 in playoff pool drafts. Most of us would only believe in the Oilers once we see them win a playoff series or two. Now they've accomplished that. It will be interesting to see what's next.

Brad Marchand is expected to need six months to recover from surgery on both hips. That recovery timeline puts his availability at around late November of next season. With that in mind, fantasy teams should plan for Marchand to be out for at least the first month of the 2022-23 season.

Also keep in mind that Patrice Bergeron hasn't decided on his future, so the Bruins could be without two-thirds of their top line to start the season. That could have a real impact on David Pastrnak's value, particularly early in the season. If Bergeron retires, the Bruins should be in the market for a free agent center like Nazem Kadri or Evgeni Malkin.

I have Marchand in a keep 4 league and had been leaning toward keeping him, so this will make a difficult decision even harder. I am keeping Pastrnak in another league, but I will also lower my expectations a little.

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Throughout the summer to fill the space of a lack of NHL action and overall news, I plan to dig through Frozen Tools for information that might help you with your fantasy decisions.

One topic that's been on my mind throughout the season has been power-play time, specifically the percentage of PPTOI (power-play time on ice) that a player normally receives. We tend to throw around the term "first-unit power-play time" as though it is equal for all players. However, some teams use their first power-play units more than others. A player being assigned to PP1 doesn't necessarily mean their point totals will explode, nor does a player on PP2 always need to be "freed."

Of course, not all power plays themselves are created equally. In fact, I'll start with simple power-play data. Here are the teams that scored the most power-play goals during the season.

TeamPPG
COLORADO AVALANCHE 67
ST. LOUIS BLUES 65
FLORIDA PANTHERS 64
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 63
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 63
NASHVILLE PREDATORS 63

Most of these results shouldn't be surprising, although one team that stands out to me is Nashville. They were on the higher end of the scale when it came to power-play opportunities. They were a top-10 team when it came to power-play conversion (23.3%), with Roman Josi a driving force (37 PPP). The Predators are viewed as a team that relies on Juuse Saros because it isn't strong on 5-on-5, so the power play has been overlooked as a reason for them being a playoff team.

How about the least power-play goals?

TeamPPG
ARIZONA COYOTES 28
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 30
SEATTLE KRAKEN 32
NEW JERSEY DEVILS 34
MONTREAL CANADIENS 34

No surprises on this list, as these were all teams that finished at or near the bottom of the standings. Comparing top and bottom, the top team (Colorado) scored over twice as many power-play goals than the bottom team (Arizona). Already, a space on the Avalanche first-unit power play carries far more weight than that of the Coyotes. I'm sure that's not a surprise to you, but you might not have thought of it that way either.

To expand on this, four of the Avalanche's mainstays on PP1 (Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri, Nathan MacKinnon) recorded at least 25 power-play points, with two (Rantanen, Makar) over 30 PPP. By comparison, the highest power-play total from any Coyote was Shayne Gostisbehere with 19 PPP.

Now for power-play icetime percentages. Here is a list of players that logged at least 75 percent of their team's power-play minutes, along with their total power-play time and power-play points:

NameTEAMPPP%PPPPTOI
ALEX OVECHKINWSH2993.6366:02
LEON DRAISAITLEDM4183.4306:56
CONNOR MCDAVIDEDM4480.5297:52
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINSEDM2380.3218:36
PATRICK KANECHI3176.1295:26
JOHN CARLSONWSH2576.1309:16
DAVID PASTRNAKBOS2675.4255:14

Maybe Alex Ovechkin could be more productive with all of his power-play opportunities? I'm kidding, of course. Given his stature as an all-time great, Ovechkin can probably choose how long he spends on the power play. Yet he is going to generate power-play points simply because he is out there a lot. Same with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who isn't a scorer at the level of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but the power-play production will be there for RNH.

With multiple players on this table, we can assume that Washington and Edmonton are two teams that generally give their first power-play units more time to work their magic than other teams. What teams tend to distribute it more evenly? Using the Excel skills that I learned in a previous job, I noticed that three teams didn't have a player that received 60 percent or more of his team's power-play opportunities. Those teams were Anaheim, Dallas, and Philadelphia. Those teams' top power-play point producers were as follows:

NameTEAMPPP%PPPPTOI
CAM FOWLERANA1847.1162:59
JOE PAVELSKIDAL2557.1224:26
KEITH YANDLEPHI1141.6164:51

You know that Philadelphia's power play was poor when final-season Keith Yandle with 19 points all season led the team in power-play points. I should note that before he left the Flyers, Claude Giroux registered 12 power-play points with a 61.1% share of minutes. Yandle was simply the leader among players still on the Flyers' roster when the season ended.

None of these players received the largest share of power-play minutes on their team, but the players that did each scored fewer points. Dallas might be the outlier, as they had four players with at least 20 PPP in spite of a relatively low icetime total. Perhaps a new coach will lean on the PP1 unit more heavily than Rick Bowness did, which might be something to watch. The separation between the top line of Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson, and Roope Hintz from the rest of the team in scoring shows how dominant that line was at even strength.

No player within the top 30 in power-play points received less than 60 percent of his team's available power-play minutes per game. That's something you could look for if you are trying to find players with high power-play point totals. As well, every player in the top 30 in power-play points finished with at least 64 points overall.

Tomorrow I'll dive into one particular team's power-play situation before and after their in-season coaching change.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
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JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency PIT Players
25.4 BRYAN RUST RICKARD RAKELL SIDNEY CROSBY
21.3 MATT NIETO BLAKE LIZOTTE NOEL ACCIARI
11.1 DREW O'CONNOR EVGENI MALKIN MICHAEL BUNTING

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