Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. The Lightning are again heading into the offseason over the cap, and even though they don’t have a full roster, they already need to shed $2M. That means we’re looking at someone else being shipped off to solve the cap issues.

Looking at the core of the team, there aren’t a lot of options if they want to keep the gang together while shaving off enough money. Alex Killorn appears to be as good as gone, with his $4.45 million price tag, and without a locked spot in the top-six. Killorn however doesn’t have much more upside though even if he does get traded. He was up over 18 minutes of ice time per game for the first time in his career this past year, and put up a career high in points and power play points, shooting 15%. Unrestricted free agent Ondrej Palat is actually where you might want to look for the increased production with deployment on a new team. His 70-point pace from 2020-2021 could be reachable on a top line next season, which is where he should likely end up as a good option in the second tier of wings in free agency.

Assuming Killorn is gone, but the rest of the roster remains relatively untouched, Ross Colton stands to be one of the benefactors of the extra open ice time in the top six, but even more importantly, he should see time with the top power play unit. After the big three up front and Victor Hedman on the back end, it comes down to Corey Perry, Anthony Cirelli, and Colton for the last spot, and though Perry may have the history, Colton has shown well there down the stretch. (jun8)

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2. Nikita Kucherov posted a 1.47 points-per-game average in the regular season and is at 1.35 for the playoffs. All the talk about McDavid and MacKinnon, we don’t hear enough about MaKucherov. In the series against the Rangers, Kucherov became the sixth player in NHL history to record 20 career games of at least three points in the postseason. The others: Wayne Gretzky (59x), Mark Messier (30x), Jari Kurri (28x), Denis Savard (21x) and Jaromir Jagr (20x). (jun6)

3. The general opinion of people that I talk hockey with (not necessarily from a fantasy perspective) seems to be that the Oilers need to move on from Mike Smith. Although Smith can look like a world beater at times, it’s those gaffs resulting from his tendency to take risks that stand out. During the first two rounds, Smith posted a decent 2.70 GAA and a very strong .927 SV%. However, the Avalanche exposed him to a 5.57 GAA and .872 SV% in their four-game sweep.

I’m not sure what the Oilers will decide to do with their goaltending situation this offseason. Although Mikko Koskinen is set to become a UFA (and is rumored to be signing in Europe), Smith is under contract for one more season. Smith is reportedly contemplating retirement, but barring a significant change or signing, the Oilers might have to make do with a Smith/Stuart Skinner pairing next season.

If Smith ends up staying on, I might revisit his situation during Bubble Keeper Week. Although I very nearly dropped him during the season, Smith was instrumental in me earning a fantasy championship during the final week of the season while Frederik Andersen was sidelined and Ville Husso was facing tough matchups. Smith has proven he can be a superb option in certain situations, and his numbers might even be okay when spread out over an entire season. But he’s anything but a “set it and forget it” option, and he is certainly not for the faint of heart. (jun11)

4. Speaking of players that you might have rolled the dice on this season… There’s a very good chance that many fantasy championship teams, both regular season and playoffs, included Evander Kane.

~ @zjlaing: on @timandfriends, @KevinWeekes said in terms of $ for a new evander kane contract, if it’s with the oilers, it starts with a seven. any other team, an eight. ~

Aside from maybe Johnny Gaudreau, I think the most interesting free agent out there is Kane. The projections for his next contract seem to be wildly varying. But if the above report is true, then the free agency period is really and truly silly season. If Kane didn’t have all his off-ice issues, do you think teams should be lining up to offer him a seven- or eight-year contract? He will certainly be earning more than $2 million per season – that I believe strongly. Even with his track record.

By the way, at the time the playoffs were finished for the Oilers, Kane led all players in goals (13), penalty minutes (37), and hits (73). If Kane is a keeper of yours, you have to hope he signs with the Oilers. Not that he was a bad player with any of his prior teams, but we saw that he could absolutely maximize his value with the Oilers. His 0.91 PTS/GP in 43 regular-season games was the highest point-per-game output of his career. Playing on a line with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl (or perhaps both!) will do that. (jun11)

5. After being a model for stability for years, the Boston Bruins are suddenly a team facing the winds of change this offseason. Much of that is due to circumstance, based on the injuries to Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy and the potential retirement of Patrice Bergeron. Yet suddenly these developments mean that David Pastrnak seems much less likely to sign long-term with the Bruins.

Pastrnak is in the same boat as J.T. Miller in that he has one year remaining on his contract. Like the Canucks with Miller, if the Bruins can’t come to terms with Pastrnak long term, then they might as well try to shop him so that they don’t risk losing him for nothing if he is not traded by next summer. One report on The Athletic (subscription required) even cites an inside source that believes Pastrnak has no chance of re-signing with the Bruins, given the way that Pastrnak’s close friends Torey Krug and David Krejci were allowed to move on without much incentive to return to the Bruins.

Pastrnak is a cornerstone player on a keeper league team of mine that just won a championship, so this story bears watching for me personally. Pastrnak is a two-time 40-goal scorer with a cap hit of under $7 million, so there would be a lot of potential suitors, some of which would feel confident enough that they could sign him long-term. Pastrnak has been on one of the league’s most productive lines with Bergeron and Marchand dating back to 2016-17 (according to Frozen Tools data). The downside of a trade is that he may not find a similarly productive line arrangement with a new team.

If Pastrnak is on your team, don’t panic and sell all of your shares because his linemates are disappearing or he might get traded. I said the same about Marchand earlier, and it’s even more important to take the long view on Pastrnak because he’s only 26. This developing Bruins news is simply something to pay attention to during the offseason. (jun11)

6. The salary cap has necessitated some bizarre transactions over the years, and it appears this season will be no different. The Sabres have acquired Ben Bishop‘s contract and a seventh-round pick from the Stars in exchange for good ol’ future considerations. The trade helps the Sabres not only because they add another draft pick, but also so that they have an easier time reaching the cap floor. This trade might also serve as a hint that Buffalo won’t be a huge spender this offseason, perhaps instead sticking to their rebuild plan. (jun11)

7. It kind of looked like Jack Roslovic‘s career was dead in the water back in Winnipeg, posting 67 points in 180 games, never averaging more than 15 minutes in any season. He even averaged under 10 minutes a game back in 2018-19. But he was traded to Columbus as part of the Patrik Laine swap and responded with a career-best 34 points in just 48 games. He followed that up with 45 points in 81 games in 2021-22, though his ice time took another hit compared to his first season with the Blue Jackets. So, what kind of player is he and what might we expect from him?

I do think Roslovic has good playmaking upside. The team around him is improving offensively, and he’s long been good in transition and finding teammates. His issues are ice time and role. If he plays 15 minutes a night with secondary PP time, he’s unlikely to explode in the fantasy game. That means something like 15-20 goals and 30-35 assists, if all goes well, with middling peripherals. Not really great production. But if he takes another step, and can start eating into Jenner’s minutes (his back injuries have unfortunately persisted for most of his career), 60+ points is very possible. [Follow the link for Mike's full analysis on Roslovic] (jun9)

8. Victor Olofsson is a curious player. He had a great AHL season in 2018-19, managed 20 goals in 54 games with the Sabres in 2019-20, but hasn’t surpassed that goal total since. My issue with him was that he seemed like a shot bot; think someone like Luke Kunin or Dominik Kubalik. If he’s not getting his (very good) shot off, he didn’t seem to be doing much else. 

The Sabres aren’t deep enough (yet) to sustain high scoring rates when he’s off the top line, but they scored 3.4 goals per 60 minutes when he was skating with Tage Thompson (just 2.2 goals per 60 without him). Should they want to do what they did at the end of last season and that’s move one of Alex Tuch or Jeff Skinner to the second line, Olofsson could be a very good fantasy option. It would also depend on his power-play role, and they do have good developing prospects like Jack Quinn and J.J. Peterka. Improved TOI rates and his role will determine whether he’s viable in most fantasy leagues, or waiver fodder. [Follow the link for Mike's full analysis on Olofsson] (jun9)

9. Sonny Milano, here we have a player whose NHL career I thought was coming to an end. He had just 47 points in 131 career games heading into 2021-22, skating just over 12 minutes a night. Going into his age-25 season, it really did seem like break-out-or-bust for Milano. He chose the former, posting a career-best 34 points in 66 games. He did shoot 14.9%, but had been a career 13.7% shooter to that point, so not really out of line.

What the issue here is his performance playing away from Trevor Zegras. Anaheim’s scoring chances fell over 20% when he was skating without the star rookie, and actual goals fell by 36%. My intuition tells me that it’s a function of a lack of scoring depth, as the team scored 2.81 goals/60 with Zegras on the ice and just 2.1 goals/60 with him off the ice. Troy Terry‘s emergence and the likely roster insertion of Mason McTavish should help, but it’s still an open question.

In the fantasy game, Milano’s biggest problem is a lack of peripherals. His 82-game paces for shots and hits were 116 and 34, respectively. Even if he continues to progress, and puts up 20 goals and 50 points, doing so with little peripherals doesn’t mean a lot in multi-cat leagues. It’ll be hard to progress if he sticks around 15 minutes a night, too. But there could be a solid points-only league option here if he can stick in the top-6 with adequate power-play time. [Follow the link for Mike's full analysis on Milano] (jun9)

10. Artturi Lehkonen just punched his team’s ticket to the Stanley Cup Final for the second year in a row. Lehkonen is a very interesting player because he resembles a teammate of his in Valeri Nichushkin, and the latter’s future is very much entwined with the former’s.

Colorado has $26M in cap space this summer but they also have just six NHL-ready forwards signed for 2022-23, including Alex Newhook. All of Nazem Kadri, Nichushkin, and Andre Burakovsky are UFAs, as is goaltender Darcy Kuemper. They’re also just a year away from the impending monster Nathan MacKinnon extension. They may have to let Nichushkin walk, in which case Lehkonen could be a cheaper replacement.

In the fantasy game, Lehkonen will be in tough for high-end performance. He is not a lock for top PP minutes with the Avs. However, he generally has good shot rates for his career, so 16-17 minutes a night could see him reach 20 goals and 45 points for the first time in his career. With good hit rates, there’s a solid depth multi-cat player waiting here, if he can build off this season. We will have to see what Colorado decides to do, and he may have an inflated ADP if Nichushkin is let go. This is a situation to monitor closely this summer. [Follow the link for Mike's full analysis on Lehkonen] (jun9)

11. The problem with the Sharks, as we all know, is that they have so much money tied up in their aging core and they don’t have the supporting cast or the goaltending to keep them afloat. They look to have a full roster already, and that’s with a number of RFAs at every single position.

On defence, Mario Ferraro is the underrated gem, and is also an RFA in need of a new contract. Once that’s signed, the team will be up to eight defencemen, with five of them being the regulars from the 2021-22 season. That leaves one regular spot for Ryan Merkley, and it doesn’t come with a lot of power play time. There’s both Ferraro and Merkley would be better off if the Sharks do end up moving Brent Burns or Erik Karlsson, but with the team looking to run it back again, it seems unlikely.

In net, Kaapo Kahkonen might have the highest individual upside of any of the Sharks’ RFAs, but with two goalies signed in front of him, his path to starts this year is the least certain. He does have arbitration rights though, so a one-way deal should be a given, meaning it may push one of the incumbents (Adin Hill & James Reimer) out the door. In the past, when Kahkonen has had a string of starts in a row, he has performed very well. If he does get a shot to compete for the starting role with one of the other incumbents in San Jose this year, he could end up running with it and seeing 50+ starts. (jun8)

12. Denis Gurianov was going to be one of my main cap league offseason targets, as someone that my projections had coming in at a lower cap hit, while looking at a guaranteed uptick in production with the coaching change (couldn’t be any worse deployment than Rick Bowness gave him) and the positive regression of his luck metrics.

Well, he signed a one-year, $2.9 million deal this past week, which means he still expires as an RFA next summer, but if he can’t put up numbers this season, then his rope will be just about at its end. He’s someone to look into as a depth fantasy asset, and for more details on that, Michael Clifford has you covered with his thoughts from yesterday. (jun8)

13. The Bruins announced they were relieving coach Bruce Cassidy of his duties with a replacement to come after a search. Mike wrote about it, so for thoughts on this, go read that. (jun7)

14. Montreal extended defenceman Chris Wideman for two years this past week. Wideman had a career year offensively with 27 points in 64 games. We’ll see how they fill out the blue line, but he could be the PP1 defenceman again in 2022-23. A name to keep in mind for deeper multi-cat leagues, especially cap formats where he signed for under $800K per year. (jun7)

15. One of the big RFA decisions this summer is what Minnesota will do with Kevin Fiala. Because of a pair of bought-out contracts, the Wild have significant cap crunches for the next three seasons. With over $7M in cap space and no major signings to make – backup goalie, a couple depth contracts – it wouldn’t take much finagling to get Fiala signed short-term and staying under the cap. It would handcuff their roster flexibility even further, but it may be necessary.

The reason it’s necessary is just how good Fiala is. He had a whopping 85 points in 2022-23, skating 17:49 a night. Over the last three seasons, he has managed 2.66 points/60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is tied with Mark Stone for 16^th in the league. He is also inside the top-40 in shot rate in that span, so he’s really bringing it across the board for even-strength production.

Whether he can post 80+ points again is another issue. He had career-highs in many areas – 5-on-5 shooting percentage, 5-on-5 team on-ice shooting percentage, 5-on-5 team on-ice goals – and that could be due to the NHL’s increased scoring environment. It could also be a sign of a downturn. Not that he’s going to crash to a 50-point player or anything, but he doesn’t bring a lot of hits. A forward that doesn’t hit a lot that goes from 85 points to 70 points is a big drop in multi-cat fantasy leagues.

Long story short, Fiala has been an excellent offensive player for several years and this was the season the pieces fell into place. He’s earned a big contract, though Minnesota might not be the team to give it to him. There shouldn’t be much concern about a team giving him a 7-year contract and having him live up to it, as long as he stays healthy. This will be a fascinating story to follow this offseason. [Follow the link for Mike's full analysis on Fiala] (jun7)

16. I am a big believer in Andrew Mangiapane‘s upside. Calgary’s 26-year-old winger is coming off a 35-goal season, having scored 43 times in his previous 178 games. We can point to his 18.9% shooting, which is high, but he’s also shooting 17.3% over his last 250 regular season games. Shooting just that four-year average would have still resulted in over 30 goals.

If he can skate regularly with good scorers, and crack the top PP unit, he has 30-goal, 70-point potential. This could be Calgary’s Kevin Fiala rounding into form and, with good shot and hit rates, he has multi-cat appeal. Mangiapane being 26 means any sort of longer-term contract has Calgary buying UFA years, and that can get expensive. For reference, Josh Anderson signed for seven years at $5.5M in 2020 starting in his age-26 season, and Anthony Mantha got four years at $5.7M a season at the same age. If they sign him for six or seven years, the cap hit probably starts with a five. If they do that, it’s hard to bring back both Tkachuk and Gaudreau. They could bridge him and walk him to free agency in an effort to keep everyone.

Regardless of what they do, Mangiapane should be a guy they keep long-term. Low TOI and a lack of PP opportunity has kept his point totals relatively low, and the right deployment could see him explode offensively. I do believe he can be nearly as productive as the aforementioned Fiala, while adding very good defensive ability. That is worth keeping around for years. [Follow the link for Mike's full analysis on Mangiapane] (jun7)

17. The Blue Jackets signed free agent Joona Luoto to a two-way contract last week. I found that interesting because the Winnipeg Jets already gave him a shot a couple of years ago. But now he’s 24 and closer to his prime. He is a big (6-3) winger and his numbers in Finland weren’t great.

While he was in North America he totaled eight points in 29 AHL games. But, what caught my eye was the likely reason for the sudden interest by the Jackets. His Liiga postseason was outstanding. Luoto had 17 points in 14 games to lead everyone – and the next best was 10 points. He was named the best playoff player (Jari Kurri Award) and led Tappara to the title. Between that clutch performance during key games and his size, I can see the appeal. Remember one of my core teachings here: big men (6-3 or over) take a couple extra years to come into their own. (jun6)

18. The Oilers are reportedly releasing prospect goaltender Ilya Konovalov from his contract. The pickings are rather slim when it comes to the Edmonton pipeline for goalies, so letting one go comes as a surprise to me. But I guess the player wasn’t happy, first time in a new country and all that. He didn’t have a great season in Bakersfield, whereas he had three very good seasons in the KHL before that. He was my favorite goalie prospect in the system and would give him a Mulligan for this first year in North America. But it’s all moot now – he’s gone. I can see him being one of those teams that get wooed back over here when he’s 27 or 28 (similar to Mikko Koskinen). (jun6)

19. Chris Kreider now has the record (tied) for most playoff goals in New York Rangers history. His goal in Game 3 against the Lightning was his 34^th postseason goal for a team that started 96 years ago. Here are the all-time leaders for the Rangers:

1. Rod Gilbert / Chris Kreider: 34
2. Mark Messier: 29
3. Adam Graves / Ron Duguay / Brian Leetch: 28
7. Steve Vickers: 24 (jun6)

20. Here is the full list of unsigned prospects who either go back into the draft (if they’re 20 and were drafted in 2018) and/or just become unrestricted free agents because their organization did not sign them by June 1:

BUF – Linus Lindstrand Cronholm, Miska Kukkonen, William Worge Kreu
CGY – Ryan Francis
CAR – Lenni Killinen
CHI – Niklas Nordgren, Chad Yetman
COL – Nils Aman
CBJ – Marcus Karlberg
DAL – Albin Eriksson
DET – Jesper Eliasson, Alex Cotton, Otto Kivenmaki
EDM – Patrik Siikanen
FLA – Justin Schutz
MIN – Filip Johansson
MTL – Jacob Olofsson
NJD – Benjamin Baumgartner, Eetu Pakkila
NYR – Jacob Ragnarsson, Evan Vierling
OTT – Eric Engstrand
PHI – Connor McClennon, Marcus Westfalt
SJS – Linus Oberg
TBL – Declan McDonnell
VAN – Toni Utunen
WSH – Bear Hughes (jun6)

21. One of the highest ranked of the group above on my Fantasy Prospects List is Ryan Francis. He has been nothing but high-scoring at the junior level. He’s 5-10, actually growing an inch since he was drafted, but questions about his speed along with the fact that the organization has enough smaller players were likely contributing factors. But part of me wonders if it was Francis who didn’t want to sign. I guess we’ll find out. If he gets drafted again, higher than 143^rd overall when he was drafted in 2020, then we can probably assume he wasn’t overly keen on the Flames. (jun6)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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