Never be surprised by dumb decisions a GM will make. That goes for both the NHL and your fantasy league. 

NHL GMs love to overspend on the free-agent market in an effort to show their bosses and the fans that they are committed to improving the team. To do so, they’ll often overlook a player’s history and will instead focus on a much smaller sample size. More often than not, those deals don’t age well. 

The 2016 offseason is probably best known for this, when Kyle Okposo, Loui Eriksson, Milan Lucic, David Backes, Andrew Ladd and Frans Nielsen all signed at least six-year deals for at least $5.5 million per season. 

To make things more interesting, this summer will be the first time since 2019 that many NHL teams will be looking to spend and that the salary cap has increased. In 2020 and 2021, there was uncertainty about whether Covid would impact revenue and if fans would be allowed into the buildings for every game. Many teams looked to keep costs down and didn’t overspend on free agents (even though some GMs still couldn’t help themselves, see the Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet). 

Any crazy free agent signings will impact anyone in fantasy cap leagues as last year’s bargain darling can quickly turn into next season’s overpriced bum. 

Of course, UFA contracts are hard to predict. Look at Claude Giroux as a great example. If he wants to chase a Stanley Cup, he will probably have to sign for less money than if he goes to a middling team. Does a desire for a cup weigh more than the desire for a big paycheck?

Below are 10 players who could see significant pay increases this offseason. 

10. Mason Marchment

Going into this season, Marchment had played 37 career games and had a total of two goals and 11 points. This year, he put up 47 points in 54 games, a 71-point pace. That’s an impressive later-career breakout season for someone who just turned 27 years old and made $800,000 this season. He’s never been much of a point-getter, so this season was a huge shock. He also put up 53 PIM and 114 hits. There could be a GM that will convince himself that Marchment’s season wasn’t an anomaly and offer him a multi-million-dollar deal. 

9. Nick Paul

In terms of fantasy, Paul hadn’t done much in his NHL career heading into this season, and his $1.35 million cap hit reflected that. His career high was 20 points when the puck dropped on this season, but then he put up 18 in 59 games with the Sens. A trade to the Lightning lit a fire under him, where he had 14 points in 21 games while getting some playing time on the top line. He had nine points in 23 postseason games this year, which isn’t a lot, but he has been scoring timely goals. He had two goals in a 2-1 Game 7 win over the Leafs in round one. A goal to pull the Lightning within one in Game 2 against the Rangers with three minutes left in the game. The first goal for Tampa in game one of the finals when the Lightning were getting outplayed by Colorado. The game-winning goal in a 6-2 must-win Game 3. GMs notice these things, and it only takes one to believe he can be a key component to a Stanley Cup chase. 

8. Darcy Kuemper

A year ago, the Avs were paying Philipp Grubauer $3.33 million per year, and the expectation was Colorado was going to sign him to a long-term contract. Instead, they let him walk, and he signed a six-year deal worth $5.9 million per season. Will history repeat itself in Colorado? Kuemper is making $4.5 million this year. He was excellent this year and is now a Stanley Cup champion, which could raise his value even more. He will make more with another team as a free agent, but he may be willing to take a discount to stay in a great situation. 

7. Andrew Copp

Copp was decent in Winnipeg the last couple of years, but it was his play with the Rangers that will help him see a significant pay raise. A year ago, he had 39 points in 55 games, a 58-point pace. This year, he had 35 points in 56 games with the Jets, and then 18 points in 16 games after he was dealt to the Rangers. He followed that up with 14 points in 20 postseason games. It helps that he was playing alongside Artemi Panarin, but someone who can play (and produce) on the top line should see an increase over the $3.64 million he made this past season. 

6. Filip Forsberg

Forsberg is coming off a deal that saw him earn $6 million a season for six seasons. Depending on your league settings (especially one that gives more emphasis on points), in fantasy cap leagues, he was probably worth that contract in maybe two seasons. One of those seasons happened this year, when he had 84 points in 69 games, a 100-point pace. Only one other time in his career has he been above a 67-point pace, so there should be some caution for his next contract. However, he does shoot the puck (3.3 shots per game) and hit (112 hits this season), and can produce on the power play. 

5. Nazem Kadri

Kadri’s late-season injury may have cost him some money, as it prevented him from reaching the 100-point plateau. However, he may have made some of that money back with his postseason play, especially in the finals when he scored the Game 4 overtime winner in his first game back after a thumb injury forced him out of four games. In the lockout-shortened season of 2012-13, he had a 75-point pace. His next highest in his career is 61 points. It all clicked this year, as he had 87 points in 71 games, a 100-point pace. His 3.5 shots per game and 29 power-play points were easily career highs. In the postseason, he had 15 points in 16 games. All that adds up to a significant increase over his current contract of $4.5 million. 

4. Jack Campbell

Campbell was great for the Maple Leafs, but there should be concerns about whether he can be a number one netminder for a full season on a team that might not score as often as Toronto does. In 18 games in October and November of this season, he was 12-4-1 with a .946 SV%, three shutouts and a 1.64 GAA. The rest of the year, he was 19-5-5 with two shutouts, but a .896 SV% and a 3.22 GAA. He was winning games because of the team’s offense, not because of what he was accomplishing. He carried that tough finish on into the playoffs, where he lost four of seven and had a 3.15 GAA and a .897 SV%. However, he had only a $1.66 million cap hit this past season and should be in line for a major increase. Rumors already have him linked to the Edmonton Oilers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Devils made a run for him as well. 

3. Evander Kane

The grievance that Kane signed against San Jose when they terminated his contract still needs to be finalized, so there is some debate about whether he will be a free agent or not this offseason. To make things simple for this column, we’re going to be focusing on what he made with the Oilers, and not the Sharks contract. When he signed in Edmonton, his salary was $1.375 million, but his cap hit was $2.1 million. He then went out and scored 22 goals and 39 points in 43 games while adding 60 PIM, 3.5 shots per game and 135 hits. If there was one dissatisfaction in his game, it was the lack of power-play points, where he had only four. He stepped up his game even more in the postseason, when he had 13 goals and 17 points in 15 games to go along with 37 PIM, 3.8 shots per game and 73 hits. Those 13 goals led all postseason players, tied with Nathan MacKinnon. Despite his history, there will be a GM that will see what Kane has accomplished in Edmonton and be willing to pay him big bucks. 

2. John Klingberg

Although he is injury prone, his current seven-year contract that is about to expire is a steal for the Stars. His last contract saw him get paid an average of $4.25 million per season, making him one of the few underpaid players. That’s a tremendous value considering he’s put up a 50-point pace in seven of his eight seasons. He’s also had at least 17 power-play points every year aside from his rookie season. A year ago, a 28-year-old Dougie Hamilton signed a seven-year deal that pays him an average of $9 million a season. You have to expect the 29-year-old Klingberg will be using that as a baseline.

1. Johnny Gaudreau 

Gaudreau made an average of $6.75 million in each of the past six seasons, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him become overpaid next season. That’s what will happen if he signs anywhere north of $10 million. The Athletic broke down his potential value last week, noting that his comparisons are Artemi Panarin (making $11.6 million per season) and Patrick Kane (making $10.5 million per year, but that contract is the equivalent of $12.6 million now). That’s a lot of coin for an inconsistent player. Gaudreau tends to mix awesome seasons with ones that aren’t quite as good. His 82-game point pace over his career is 65, 81, 69, 86, 99, 68, 70 and 115. What Johnny Gaudreau will you get each season? Will you feel comfortable with him on your fantasy squad in your cap league if he is making $10-plus million a year and he has a 70-point season next year? It might be smart to sell high on him if you can before he signs his next deal.