Eastern Edge: Defensemen Tiers from Hedman to Wideman

Brennan Des

2022-09-20

This week, Grant Campbell and I organized the league's defensemen into tiers based on projected fantasy value this season. Grant covers the Western Conference here at DobberHockey, and you can check out his tiers of defensemen in the West over here. Below, you'll find my tiered ranking of defensemen in the East. There's some subjectivity baked into these rankings, so think of them as a guide for your own thinking rather than a concrete list you need to follow. Tiers were created with multicategory leagues (goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, blocks) in mind.

Tier 1

Victor Hedman (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Elite defenseman on an elite team; one of a few blueliners with the potential to score at a point-per-game pace. Hedman led all defensemen with 38 power-play points last season. His success with the man advantage should carry into this year as he continues playing a prominent role on Tampa's star-studded top unit. A multicategory beast, Hedman is a high-volume shooter who can rack up a significant number of blocks, while making modest contributions in the hits department.

Adam Fox (New York Rangers) – A young defenseman entering his prime, surrounded by plenty of high-end offensive talent in New York. After pacing for 49 points in his rookie campaign, Fox managed a 70-point pace in his sophomore season, and took another step forward in year three, posting a 78-point pace last season. His own elite skillset, combined with the elite skillsets of his teammates, means he'll have no trouble producing at even-strength and on the power play. From a multicategory perspective, Fox puts up a fair number of shots and blocks, and his offensive output makes up for his deficiency in hits.

Tier 2

Kris Letang (Pittsburgh Penguins) – I think there's a case to be made for placing Letang in Tier One, but I settled on Tier Two because of his age (35), injury history, and potential to see a reduced role this year. Although he's often recognized for his offensive ability, I don't think he gets the credit he deserves for his other contributions. Among all defensemen last year, Letang ranked 6th in points (68), 8th in power-play points (22), 7th in shots (214), 20th in hits (171), and 49th in blocks (122). It's hard to find a defenseman who can make significant contributions to all five of those categories. It's worth noting that Letang led all Penguins defensemen in ice time last year (25:47) and averaged a whopping four more minutes per game than second place Brian Dumoulin (21:49). With Jeff Petry joining the team, I wouldn't be surprised if Letang saw a slightly reduced role this year, leading to slightly less production across the aforementioned categories.

Dougie Hamilton (New Jersey Devils) – Hamilton's first year in New Jersey was a disappointing one but that's because he was hindered by injuries. He's a must-own in leagues that track shot totals, being one of very few defensemen who consistently average over three shots per game. He won't dominate in hits and blocks but should be able to average more than one of each per game. Now that he's healthy, he should be back to playing a prominent role on an up-and coming Devils team. I expect he'll reclaim his spot on the team's top power-play unit this year, giving him 70-point potential.

Moritz Seider (Detroit Red Wings) – The 21-year-old defenseman established himself as the league's best rookie last season, earning the status of 'multicategory beast' in the process. Among all defensemen last season, Seider ranked 19th in points (50), 10th in power-play points (21), 9th in blocks (161), 19th in shots (187) and 31st in hits (151). Based on my count, he, Letang and McAvoy are the only defensemen to make such sizeable contributions across all five of those categories.

Aaron Ekblad (Florida Panthers) – Since his season was cut short by an injury, I don't think everyone got to appreciate Ekblad's incredible performance last year. His 57 points over 61 appearances translates to 77 points in 82 games. It was Ekblad's second season with a prominent power-play role and he racked up 20 points with the man advantage despite missing a quarter of the campaign. Although he doesn't put up a whole lot of hits and blocks, he is a high-volume shooter, averaging roughly three shots per game over the past two seasons. There is some risk in drafting Ekblad this year because (1) he lost an elite defensive partner in MacKenzie Weegar and (2) Florida's power-play dynamics will be different with Matthew Tkachuk replacing Jonathan Huberdeau.

John Carlson (Washington Capitals) – The 32-year-old defenseman's fantasy value is often linked to Washington's power-play. He sees a huge portion of the team's total power-play time, which often results in lofty point totals with the man advantage. Last season, even though Washington's power-play struggled (ranking 23rd in the league), Carlson racked up 25 power-play points, placing him sixth in the category among all defensemen. He's scored at or above a 70-point pace in each of the past five seasons. 

Morgan Rielly (Toronto Maple Leafs) – The go-to offensive option on Toronto's blueline. Rielly is an offensively capable defenseman who benefits from playing with one of the league's best forward groups. He should post strong numbers with the man advantage as he continues playing a prominent role on Toronto's star-studded top power-play unit. Although he's usually a high-volume shooter, he doesn't produce a huge number of hits and blocks, so he's more valuable in offensively focused fantasy formats than he is in multicategory leagues.  

Tier 3

Brent Burns (Carolina Hurricanes) – The 37-year-old defenseman will be surrounded by more offensive talent in Carolina than he had in his last years with San Jose. A prominent role on the Hurricanes' top power-play unit should give Burns the production he needs to score around a 60-point pace this season. From a multicategory perspective, he's been a top contributor to shot and block categories in the past. Expect more of the same this year.

Thomas Chabot (Ottawa Senators) – Has scored at a 50-point pace in each of the past two seasons but is primed to take a step forward this year, thanks to an improved forward group in Ottawa. He's held a prominent role on the power play in recent years but hasn't been very productive with the man advantage. That's likely to change with Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat now in the mix, and Ottawa's young guns developing further. Chabot should be able to complement strong offensive production with high shot totals and a decent number of hits and blocks.

Noah Dobson (New York Islanders) – The 22-year-old defenseman broke out with 51 points last season. The increased production was a product of increased utilization as his ice time jumped five minutes from the year before, and his share of New York's power-play time went from 42% to 64%. His expanded role on the man advantage led to a career-high 22 power-play points – a total which ranked eighth among all defensemen. As a result of the coaching change, there's potential for the Islanders to see more offensive freedom this year, which could help Dobson be even more productive. Offense aside, he's quite valuable in multicategory leagues, having posted roughly one hit, two blocks, and two and a half shots per game last year.

Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets) – The 25-year-old defenseman quietly scored at a 58-point pace last season. From my perspective, he has potential to improve on that this year as Columbus' offense looks more dangerous with Johnny Gaudreau in the fold. I think Werenski could flirt with the 65-point mark, posting around 20 power-play points, a high shot total, and a solid number of blocks.

Rasmus Dahlin (Buffalo Sabres) – After a disappointing 2020-2021 campaign, Dahlin rebounded nicely last season. In addition to a decent number of shots, hits and blocks, he posted 53 points – 21 of which came with the man advantage. He already has four NHL seasons under his belt, but we have to keep in mind that he's just 22 years old. He still has time to develop into the player he was projected to be when the Sabres drafted him first overall in 2018. I think he could be even more productive this year as both he and the young team around him continue to get better. With all that said, I'm wary of Owen Power eating into some of Dahlin's offensive opportunity this year, which is why I didn't place the Swedish defenseman in Tier Two.

Tier 4

Charlie McAvoy (Boston Bruins) – Would be ranked in Tier Two if he wasn't expected to miss the first month(s) of the season. McAvoy stepped onto Boston's top power-play unit last year and registered 21 points with the man advantage, fueling a career-best 59-point pace. He complemented that with 155 hits and 129 blocks, proving himself as a multicategory stud.

Jacob Trouba (New York Rangers) – Offensive opportunity is limited because he sits behind Adam Fox on the depth chart. However, New York's strong offense gives Trouba potential to flirt with the 40-point mark – as he did last year. His elite hit and block totals make him a must-own in multicategory leagues. Among all defenseman, he ranked second in blocks (177) and ninth in hits (207) last season.

Jeff Petry (Pittsburgh Penguins) – Petry's last year in Montreal was disappointing, but there are explanations for his poor performance. For starters, he spent much of the season away from his family – who stayed in the States due to COVID restrictions in Quebec. In addition, coach Dominique Ducharme's strategies weren't a great fit for Petry – or any of the team for that matter. That second point is reinforced by the fact that Petry tallied just six points in 38 games under Ducharme but posted 21 points in 30 games after Martin St. Louis took over as head coach. With fewer distractions this season, Petry should be able to focus on his game and return to form as a 40-point player who can post a solid number of hits, shots and blocks.  

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Mikhail Sergachev (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Like many other players in this tier, Sergachev's offensive ceiling is limited because he isn't the team's top offensive option on the blueline. Although he won't rack up power-play points, he'll get plenty of exposure to a talented forward group in Tampa Bay and has been a reliable 40-point guy over his five years in the NHL. Even when he's not showing up on the scoresheet, he should put up enough hits and blocks to remain valuable in fantasy formats.

Ryan Pulock (New York Islanders) – His offensive production is limited now that Dobson has emerged as the top power-play option in New York. Regardless, he's managed to flirt with the 40-point mark without a prominent power-play role in the past and could do so again this year. He's a strong producer in of hits, blocks and shots, meaning he provides fantasy value even when he doesn't show up on the scoresheet.

Tier 5

Mike Matheson (Montreal Canadiens) – Will likely enjoy an increased role this year, being one of the top options on an inexperienced blueline in Montreal. More ice time means more opportunities to rack up blocks and shots. The Canadiens aren't expected to be good next year, but they have a couple of talented young players in Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Matheson should see plenty of exposure to those guys, giving him a shot at 40 points this year.  

Owen Power (Buffalo Sabres) – The first overall pick of the 2021 draft has the talent to have a significant impact in Buffalo this season. However, I think he remains behind Rasmus Dahlin on the depth chart, which limits the magnitude of the impact he can have.

Jaccob Slavin (Carolina Hurricanes) – If Burns falters or gets injured, I think Slavin could see more time than expected on Carolina's top power-play unit. Even if he doesn't see much of an opportunity with the man advantage, I think Slavin can flirt with the 40-point mark while posting a good number of blocks and a decent number of shots.

Damon Severson (New Jersey Devils) – His strong offensive output last year was a result of an increased role while Dougie Hamilton was injured. I expect Hamilton reclaims that role this year, which limits Severson's offensive ceiling. While he may not benefit from strong power-play production this year, he'll see plenty of exposure to New Jersey's talented forward group at even stregnth. I think Severson can post around 35 points, with decent contributions to peripheral categories.

Ivan Provorov (Philadelphia Flyers) – Offensive ceiling is limited because he probably won't play a prominent power-play role this year as DeAngelo will likely start the year on the top unit. However, more importantly, Philadelphia's offense is not expected to be good this season. Provorov has fantasy value in multicategory leagues because he's a block beast. He ranked third in the category last season, racking up 172 blocks. The Flyers should get shelled again this year, so there will be plenty of shots for Provorov to block.

Dmitry Orlov (Washington Capitals) – A 35-point defenseman who can put up a decent number of hits and blocks. With Justin Schultz out of the picture, Orlov could see a slightly bigger offensive role this year than he did last season. 

Tony DeAngelo (Philadelphia Flyers) – A defenseman who has been most productive while quarterbacking successful power plays. It's hard to imagine the Flyers having a successful power play given the current state of their roster. To make things worse, the team's top center Sean Couturier looks like he'll be out long term with a back injury. I'm also not sure that defensive coach John Tortorella will take a liking to the defensively challenged DeAngelo. The more I think about it, the more tempted I am to put him in a lower tier.

Tier 6

This tier includes the defenders who typically average 30-40 points but not great peripherals, or they have pretty good peripherals but tap out at 20-25 points. We’ve also included some risers below who are still young and developing and have some definite upside this year or next.

Jake Sanderson, Alex Romanov, Jake Muzzin, Adam Boqvist, Vladislav Gavrikov, Gustav Forsling, Ryan Graves, K'Andre Miller, Erik Brannstrom, Travis Sanheim, Ty Smith, Mark Giordano, Jake Muzzin, TJ Brodie, Radko Gudas, Martin Fehervary

Tier 7

This tier is the best of the rest who we would suggest taking a flier on to fill out a roster or if you are in need of a specific stat line for your pool.

Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, Ben Chiarot, Brandon Montour, Chris Wideman, Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan Ellis (inj.), Erik Cernak, Timothy Liljegren, Rasmus Sandin, Artem Zub, Adam Pelech, Hampus Lindholm, Joel Edmundson, David Savard, Ryan Lindgren

Any tier after this would be considered waiver material, but please let me know if you think we’ve missed anyone or mis-tiered some defensemen.

5 Comments

  1. Mathieu 2022-09-20 at 22:03

    May I suggest Andrew Peeke in tier 6 or 7.
    He is in rise and has good peripherals.

  2. Blair Budvarson 2022-09-20 at 22:26

    What about Hronek? Where does he fit?

    • Brennan Des 2022-09-21 at 23:35

      I was moving him between Tier 5 and 6 and ended up forgetting to include him. Sorry about that! I think I’d settle for Tier 6 because I see him as a 35-point guy with unspectacular peripherals.

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