Early in the fantasy hockey season, there needs to be a balance struck. That balance is between what we thought in the offseason, what we've seen in the games so far, and what the numbers are telling us. It has been shown in prior statistical work that it can take about 20 games for expected goals numbers to stabilize. The problem with that in the fantasy realm is that 20 games take most teams to (roughly) the last week of November and if we're not adjusting our expectations before that, our league mates are probably going to lap us.

Today, let's take some time to dig into early-season numbers from across the league. Having just 3-4 games played isn't enough to make a final determination, but they can provide us with a guiding light; they can tell us where we should be paying closer attention and where we shouldn't. Let's take a gander at five early numbers, both good and bad, and players that we should be keying on over the next couple weeks to help our fantasy teams, or players to discard. Most of the data is from Natural Stat Trick, our Frozen Tools, or Evolving Hockey.

Timo Meier

The player with the most shots on goal without scoring (as of Wednesday afternoon) is San Jose's top winger Timo Meier. He has 21 shots on goal with registering a tally yet, a worrying start for his fantasy owners.

One problem with Meier's scoring over his career is an inability to convert at a high rate. He averaged 10.5% from 2017-22, a span of 360 games. Of the 14 forwards that landed at least 11 shots per 60 minutes in those five seasons, Meier is 11^th in shooting percentage, and tied for 11^th in goals per 60 minutes as a result. That kept his goal scoring relatively modest until 2021-22 when a huge ice time jump helped him set a career-high with 35 goals.

It is last season that is instructive here. Meier had three different stretches where he landed more than 21 shots on goal without scoring: early December where he landed 29 in seven games without a goal, late January-early February where he landed 24 in six games while failing to register a marker, and early April when he posted 25 shots in five games without scoring. He still finished the season as one of the top fantasy skaters. It would be a concern if he weren't shooting, but he's still top-20 in the league in shot rate. Those with the Swiss flank on their roster need patience, and perhaps others can buy low on him.

Andrei Kuzmenko

My big offseason concern with Vancouver was their determination to run a three-centre lineup with Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller, and Elias Pettersson on different lines. It could have left them spreading out their wingers a bit too thin and would make Andrei Kuzmenko someone they'd need to find success. He has 12 shots in four games, with a pair of points, so he's off to a fine start.

What is more important to note here is he's 7^th among 182 forwards with at least 50 minutes played in expected goals generated per 60 minutes (2.25). He has scored just once though, giving him the second-lowest goal-scoring rate of anyone in the top-10, with only T.J. Oshie faring worse.

The test here for fantasy players is that we don't have a track record from the 26-year-old Russian. It is his first season in the NHL and transferring goal scoring from the KHL to the NHL isn't always a straight line (ask Vadim Shipachyov or Dmitrij Jaskin, though injuries were a big factor for the latter). But the concern would be if Kuzmenko weren't shooting or getting to good areas for his shots. Neither is true, and HockeyViz shows us where he's been shooting from. There are a couple from distance, but most are in the slot or in tight:

There are mitigating circumstances that could suppress his offence, as he's not earning a lot of ice time and the spectre of Brock Boeser supplanting him on the power play looms (he's done it a couple times in their last two games as it is). Playing 14-15 minutes a night and being bumped off the PP could crush his fantasy value, but it won't be because he's not generating offence. He is doing that, and we have to monitor whether he keeps it up in their next handful of games.

Viktor Arvidsson

It has been an uneven start for Los Angeles as Gabriel Vilardi and the third line has been a huge reason for the team's early success. He, Quinton Byfield, and Alex Iafallo (now injured) have 14 points in 14 total games between them. That is superb production from the depth.

What is missing is production from the second line. Last year, the trio of Viktor Arvidsson, Trevor Moore, and Philip Danault scored more often per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 than the Washington top line, the Colorado top line, and the Toronto second line. This season, they have two goals in the team's first five contests, both from Danault. Arvidsson has been off to an especially sluggish start with just six shots in four games. Looking back at last season, where he managed over 3.4 shots per game, Arvidsson had just two stretches where he landed six shots in four matches, but he still had six assists in those eight total games. Arvidsson is pointless this season and his shot attempt rate is by far a career low (13.95 per 60, having never been below 17 in any campaign). Arvidsson was injured in the offseason/training camp and already missed a game. Maybe something is lingering here?

There should be some cause for concern. The line itself is generating much less than last year as a whole and Arvidsson himself isn't shooting much. He was a late pick, so fantasy managers won't be at a huge loss if they have to cut him, but we need to see a turnaround in the next couple weeks.

Roman Josi

Individual points percentage (IPP) is the rate at which a player garners a point when his team scores with them on the ice. Defencemen are usually lower than forwards and we typically see the top playmakers from the back end at the top of the leaderboard. From 2019-2022, the top-6 blue liners in this regard were Roman Josi, John Carlson, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Adam Fox, and Cale Makar. Josi himself was just a shade under 60%, so we'd expect him to register six points on every 10 Nashville goals with him on the ice, though it'd fluctuate through the year.

So far this season, Josi has been on the ice for six goals and registered just one point. That 16.6% rate is clearly a far cry from what he's typically done – his IPP hasn't been below 42% in a single season and was over 54% for four straight years heading into this campaign. His peripherals remain strong, the team is generating a lot with him on the ice (highest all-situations xGF/60 of his career so far), but he's just gotten the short end of the production stick. He is definitely another buy-low candidate with Meier if anyone is panicking early.

Brandon Hagel

Tampa Bay has scored just 10 goals in four games, tying them for 26^th in goals per minute to start the season. The big problem is finishing as the team is shooting just 7.2%, 29^th in the league and just ahead of Montreal. This is a franchise that shot 11.1% from 2019-2022, so this is a bad scoring stretch for them. It has been tougher on few players like Brandon Hagel: the Lightning are generating 3.3 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 but just one actual goal scored per 60. They are shooting 3.4% with Hagel on the ice, something that will turn around.

Hagel has been skating on the top line for the Bolts of late and he's averaged 18:27 a game over his last three tilts. Skating so much with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point will reap their rewards eventually, we just have to hope Hagel lasts on the top line long enough for the luck to turn around. Their next half-dozen games include an Aaron Ekblad-less Florida team, a California road trip, and Ottawa. It is a good stretch of games for the Lightning to get right, in a sense, and as long as Hagel stays on the top line, he could be a big beneficiary sooner rather than later.

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Detroit announced this about winger Jakub Vrana:

pic.twitter.com/z9CpwNxuAM

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) October 19, 2022

There are any number of reasons for a player to go in this direction and there is no need to speculate. All the best to Vrana and whatever he’s dealing with.

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Brandon Montour was seemingly injured for Florida, but he was skating for them on Wednesday for their morning skate:

Brandon Montour on the ice for AM skate.

Eric Staal also out there.

No Carlsson, Ekblad or Forsling.

— Jameson Olive (@JamesonCoop) October 19, 2022

That is very good news for the Panthers, even if Montour did not play Wednesday night, because they also had some very bad news with Aaron Ekblad heading to the long-term injured reserve:

Aaron Ekblad to long term IR, per @CapFriendly.

— David Dwork (@DavidDwork) October 19, 2022

Ekblad's injury, whatever the nature, is a brutal break for both he and the team. Florida traded MacKenzie Weegar in the offseason and with Ekblad injured, they're now missing their top pair from a year ago. He had missed 30% of the team's games over the last two years with separate injuries, and with the LTIR designation, he will miss at least 10 games and 24 days, though it could certainly be longer. We should expect a lot of minutes for Montour and Gustav Forsling, but the impact of this loss cannot be overstated. That Florida blue line is starting to look very thin.

The team would later say it's not a season-ending injury but there's no official timeline.

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With Evgeny Kuznetsov suspended and Connor Brown injured, we got some new Washington lines:

Capitals at practice today:

Ovechkin-Eller-Sheary
Protas-Strome-Oshie
Johansson-McMichael-Mantha
Snively-Dowd-Hathaway

Orlov-Carlson
Fehervary-Jensen
Gustafsson-TvR
Malenstyn-Irwin

Kuemper
Lindgren

— Tom Gulitti (@TomGulittiNHL) October 19, 2022

Connor McMichael was a player I had hoped could have a breakout-type season for the Capitals this year, but he's been hard-pressed to crack the lineup. He now has a chance to show growth in his game but it's fair to wonder where he stands when the lineup is full again. It just doesn't seem like they're going to have him skate regular minutes without players missing. Dynasty owners will likely have to wait at least another season, and the clock is ticking on this aging Caps core.

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Jordan Greenway is expected back in Minnesota's lineup today:

Jordan Greenway will make his season debut tomorrow alongside Joel Eriksson Ek and opposite Marcus Foligno. Much needed spark for the #MNWild with them searching for their first win.

— Dane Mizutani (@DaneMizutani) October 19, 2022

He helps the team form one of the top shutdown lines in the league and given the Wild's so-so defensive play thus far, he is a very welcome addition to their lineup. Fantasy players in banger leagues should check the waiver wire if they need some physicality on their rosters.

Minnesota also moved Marco Rossi alongside Matt Boldy in practice so hopefully their two kids will get some run together shortly.

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Hockey fans across the league had been wondering what's up with Gabriel Landeskog and we got some clarity:

Avs Gabriel Landeskog had arthroscopic surgery on his knee yesterday and will miss 12 weeks.

— John Bartlett (@BartsBytes) October 19, 2022

This clarifies things for the Avs and as long as they keep up their current level of play, it's much more important for Landeskog to be healthy five months from now than it is in November. The team also moved Valeri Nichushkin to the top line and there was this little tidbit:

With no center recalled, it likely means Rodrigues or even Rantanen are moving back to C to fill out the lines. Very different lines coming.

— Evan Rawal (@evanrawal) October 19, 2022

I had been saying all offseason that Mikko Rantanen would likely end up the 2C at some point. He's not there yet but it does seem to be very plausible very soon.