Looking Ahead: Hartman a Possible Drop Next Week

Andrew Santillo

2022-10-28

So far this season it feels like every night there's a surprise line or player on each slate. The standings also look, well, not as we pictured and although it's early here in the season, the Eastern Conference just seems wide open. There's a lot to go over, so let's dive in!

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Alex Stalock, G, Chicago Blackhawks (Rostered in 6% of ESPN leagues, 22% Fantrax, 17% Yahoo)
– Welp, the player I was eyeing for the Immediate Fix this week had his ownership jump to around 30-40% on most sites (Dominik Kubalik) so I began to look elsewhere. How about a goalie? Can I interest anyone in Alex Stalock? Is it a reach, yes, but there's opportunity here to get some starts in net with him in the short term from the third-highest added player over on Yahoo this week.

I realize that trying to convince anybody to go out and roster a goalie for the Hawks is like when you see "spam risk" show up on your phone when someone's calling, but there might be something to gain for rostering him for the next week or so. First off is we know he will see the bulk of starts in net, since primary starter Petr Mrazek was put on IR Monday with a groin injury, we should see Stalock for at least one starts this weekend with the Hawks on a back-to-back, and possible each of the Hawks three starts next week.

Next is that his numbers so far have been adequate, he's 6th in goals saved above expected and 9th in goals saved above average. He looked great in relief of an injured Mrazek last week, coming into a game versus Detroit in the third period making 10 saves, iffy versus Seattle last Sunday, but good versus Florida this week stopping 29 of 31 shots. Keep in mind, this will go live following the Hawks game at home versus McDavid and Co. on Thursday night, there's a chance here that we see a, we'll go with "decline", in Stalock's numbers following that matchup.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa Senators (Rostered in 19% of ESPN leagues, 60% Fantrax, 25% Yahoo)
– I have a lot of Sens fans in my life and I feel like I don't have to scroll too far down my Twitter feed on a gameday to find a Tweet that in some context talking about Pinto and his involvement in the offense. I side with them in regards he should be more involved, and I think the day will come much sooner rather than later.

The early reports on Senators second line center Josh Norris are not encouraging. What has gone from missing significant time with a shoulder injury, now looks even more grim as reports are speculating that he may miss the entirety of the rest season. With that, a spot needed to be filled, and I would have guessed that Pinto would move up to second line center in-between Alex DeBrincat who shoots the puck (what feels like) ten times a game and veteran winger Claude Giroux. What I didn't anticipate was Derick Brassard moving up to the second line, so I'm probably not alone there. I like Brassard for around 13 minutes a night, but really feel like Pinto will make the leap up to second line center.

Even in the event that let's say Pinto plays down on the third line for the foreseeable future, his current line in between Tyler Motte and Mathieu Joseph has 3.2 goals for per 60 minutes, with Motte earning at least one point in each of the last four games. Pinto is currently tied for the most goals on the Senators (five) with Brady Tkachuk so the scoring is there, this a move that can be made now before his value begins to rise.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Ryan Hartman, C, Minnesota Wild (Rostered in 63% of ESPN leagues, 81% of Fantrax, 43% Yahoo)
– The Wild have not looked great to start the year and for fantasy owners who were looking for the Wild's top line to return to last season's form there's been some regression. Another issue? The line has gone through changes hurting Hartman's overall value.

Last season the Kirill Kaprizov – Hartman – Mats Zuccarello line was 5th overall in the NHL in expected goals for with 29.6 with a minimum of 350 minutes played together. The line was at times fully correlated on the power play and was a club coming into this season everyone circled to make a deep run come playoffs. The odd-man situation for Hartman comes into play because his name isn't Frederick Gaudreau, who has been up on that top line so far this season. For Hartman, that means usually seeing time down along the Minnesota third line, not what we had hoped for there.

Don't get me wrong, I like Gaudreau, but Hartman was a late draft pick in most leagues and in DFS last season, was the add on player to this top line to get different in tournaments. I know there have been reports out there saying that Hartman has taken line rushes on the top line in practice but so far this season he's been bottom six and seeing second power-play time. He might not be a bad player to hang onto in deeper leagues but for those in smaller leagues or leagues with smaller roster sizes, it may be time to try and find value on the waiver wire or via trade.

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

John Klingberg, Anaheim Ducks (Rostered in 77% of ESPN leagues, 89% Fantrax, 75% Yahoo)
– Everyone's favorite player to put into fake trades last season is now with the Ducks and things have gone sideways to start the season. Defense is thin in most leagues for sure, but there's worry here with Klingberg moving forward.

First off the bat here, no points in his last six games so not great on the scoresheet, but what's worse is that he's not really even providing fantasy owners with anything in his scoring absence. This season he has eight shots on goal, five hits, and nine blocks. The Ducks as a whole are bottom five in the league in almost every offensive category with goaltender John Gibson also seeing the most high-danger shots against.

The bit of value Klingberg has here is that he does still play around 22 minutes a night as well as quarterbacking the Ducks top power-play unit, but this is a team that hasn't done much on the man advantage, but on the flip side has been shorthanded the third most of any club so far this season. The eye test shows that this team just doesn't move their skates up ice at all and that leads to next to no momentum coming into the zone, with the zone entries being sloppy as well. If you have Klingberg on your roster, I can't say he's a must start if you're in-between two defensemen and I think it's very unlikely he reaches the 47-point mark that he had last season in Dallas.

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs from October 28 to November 9.

Minnesota – Another week, another Love 'Em for Minnesota and we love them most for their power-play over their even strength with Mats Zuccarello leading the NHL in power-play scoring. While they only play twice next week which is normally a deterrent, those matchups will both be at home versus a Montreal team with poor defensive numbers and Seattle with problems in net. 

Washington
– The hardest club to stack in DFS will play four games next week and that helps move the needle towards a Love 'Em.

NY Rangers
– Three games in a row on home ice next week for the Rangers with days off in-between looks great for this club. The Rangers are tied for the second-most expected goals between their top two lines, and although this club gets in a rhythm of trading chances, I like them in this spot upcoming.

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Columbus
– The Jackets have a light schedule upcoming with only a home-and-home against the next club on this list (spoiler it's Colorado). For the most part the only Columbus I've caught so far is whatever the NHL tweets out Patrik Laine is wearing walking into the rink on gameday. We will be without much of that in the near future.
 
Colorado
– As mentioned, it's just a home-and-home for an Avs team that quietly has the lowest goals per 60 minutes on the season. It's a small sample size for sure and this club will likely turn things around, but for now they're a Leave 'Em.

St. Louis
– The Blues went from playing hardly at all the first two weeks, four games this week, and now will revert back to playing only twice next week, which helps grade them out as a Leave 'Em. If you told me the Blues only play 57 games this season I might believe you.

Friday, October 28th to Thursday, November 3rd, 2022
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.55 – Away DET CHI – Home MTL SEA
NY Rangers 4.20 – Away DAL ARI – Home PHI BOS
Vegas 4.15 – WSH OTT – Home ANA WPG
Los Angeles 4 – Away STL DAL CHI – Home TOR
Arizona 3.94 – Home WPG NYR FLA DAL
 
Steer Clear
Colorado 1.85- Away NJD NYI
Columbus 1.99 – Away NJD – Home BOS
Philadelphia 2.60 – Away NYR TOR – Home CAR
Boston 2.66 – Away CBJ PIT NYR
Seattle 2.71 – Away CGY MIN – Home PIT
Saturday, October 29th to Friday, November 4th, 2022
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.55 – Away DET CHI – Home MTL SEA
NY Rangers 4.20 – Away DAL ARI – Home PHI BOS
Carolina 4.15 – Away PHI TBL – Home WSH BUF
Buffalo 4.12 – Away CAR – Home CHI DET PIT
Los Angeles 4 – Away STL DAL CHI – Home TOR
 
Steer Clear
Boston 1.71 – Away PIT NYR
Colorado 1.86 – Away NYI – Home CBJ
Columbus 1.90 – Away NJD COL
Winnipeg 2.21 – Away VGK – Home MTL
Vancouver 2.31 – Home NJD ANA
Sunday, October 30th to Saturday, November 5th, 2022
Best Bets
Vegas 4.14 – Away WSH OTT MTL – Home WPG
Washington 4.07 – Away CAR DET – Home VGK ARI
Anaheim 4 – Away SJS VAN SJS – Home TOR
Los Angeles 3.94 – Away STL DAL CHI – Home FLA
Arizona 3.84 – Away WSH – Home NYR FLA DAL
 
Steer Clear
St. Louis 1.84 – Home LAK NYI
Colorado 2 – Away CBJ – Home CBJ
Nashville 2.61 – Away EDM CGY VAN
Seattle 2.61 – Away CGY MIN PIT
Boston 2.66 – Away PIT NYR TOR
Monday, October 31st to Sunday, November 6th, 2022
Best Bets
Carolina 4.11 – Away TBL – Home WSH BUF TOR
Florida 4.09 – Away ARI SJS LAK ANA
Washington 4.07 – Away CAR DET – Home VGK ARI
Los Angeles 3.94 – Away STL DAL CHI – Home FLA
Anaheim 3.94 – Away SJS CAN SJS – Home FLA
 
Steer Clear
Columbus 1.80 – Away COL Home COL
St. Louis 1.84 – LAK NYI
Colorado 2 – Away CBJ – Home CBJ
Minnesota 2.42 – Home MTL SEA
Winnipeg 2.52 – Home MTL CHI
Tuesday, November 1st to Monday, November 7th, 2022
Best Bets
Washington 4.36 – Away DET – Home VGK ARI EDM
Calgary 4.12 – Away NYI – Home SEA NSH NJD
Edmonton 4.10 – Away WSH – Home NSH NJD DAL
Florida 4.09 – Away ARI SJS LAK ANA
Anaheim 3.94 – SJS VAN SJS – Home FLA
 
Steer Clear
St. Louis 1.75 – Away BOS – Home NYI
Columbus 1.80 – Away COL – Home COL
Colorado 2 – Away CBJ – Home CBJ
Minnesota 2.42 – Home MTL SEA
Winnipeg 2.52 – Home MTL CHI
Friday, November 2nd to Tuesday, November 8th, 2022
Best Bets
Detroit 4.01 – Away NYR – Home WSH NYI MTL
Calgary 4.01 – Away NYI NJD – Home NSH NJD
Toronto 3.96 – Away CAR – Home PHI BOS VGK
Edmonton 3.96 – Away WSH TBL – Home NJD DAL
Buffalo 3.87 – Away CAR TBL – Home PIT ARI
 
Steer Clear
Columbus 1.80 – Away COL – Home COL
Chicago 1.90 – Away WPG – Home LAK
Colorado 2 – Away CBJ – Home CBJ
Minnesota 2.01 – Away LAK – Home SEA
San Jose 2.15 – Home FLA ANA
Saturday, November 3rd to Wednesday, November 9th, 2022
Best Bets
Washington 4.31 – Away DET – Home ARI EDM PIT
Vancouver 4.29 – Away OTT MTL – Home ANA NSH
Detroit 4.01 – Away NYR – Home WSH NYI MTL
Calgary 4.01 – Away NYI NJD – Home NSH NJD
Carolina 3.96 – Away TBL FLA – Home BUF TOR
 
Steer Clear
Columbus 1.80 – Away COL – Home COL
Chicago 1.90 – Away WPG – Home LAK
Colorado 2 – Away CBJ – Home CBJ
Philadelphia 2 – Away CBJ – Home CBJ
Pittsburgh 2.11 – Away WSH – Home SEA

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11 WSH vs COL
Nov 21 - 19:11 CBJ vs T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11 OTT vs VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11 DET vs NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11 BOS vs UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11 N.J vs CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11 STL vs S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11 CHI vs FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11 CGY vs NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11 EDM vs MIN

Starting Goalies

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  Players Team
JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
DECLAN CHISHOLM MIN
JAKE WALMAN S.J
WILLIAM EKLUND S.J

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  Players Team
SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency N.J Players
20.9 ONDREJ PALAT JACK HUGHES JESPER BRATT
19.6 STEFAN NOESEN TIMO MEIER NICO HISCHIER
13.8 DAWSON MERCER ERIK HAULA PAUL COTTER

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