Lining Up: Prime Positioning for Pinto, Vilardi, Schwartz, and Mangiapane
Peter Ryell
2022-11-01
Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up. This week will examine a couple of players who have been hot lately and as a result, have been rewarded with positions on their team's respective top lines. As always, keep an eye on line combinations as best you can as they fluctuate frequently. Staying on top of the latest news and developments can give your team that extra edge over your opponents when the margins for winning are slim.
Let's dive in.
Gabriel Vilardi has been on a big scoring bender lately with four goals and six points in his last four games and eight goals, 13 points in 11 games on the season. His shooting percentage is quite high at 27.6% and is bound to regress closer to his average over the past three seasons of 8.4%. Due to his recent success however, Vilardi has been elevated to the top line and top power-play with Anze Kopitar and Andrian Kempe, bumping Kevin Fiala and Alex Iafallo off those units respectively.
The new deployment may not be enough to completely offset the impending shooting percentage regression but there is a clear upgrade here from Alex Iafallo and Quinton Byfield. In a short amount of time together the trio has already connected for two goals and none against while driving play at 55.2% Corsi For so it is already starting to show signs of paying off. His ownership is a bit high in Yahoo leagues at 67% so many savvy owners are not sleeping on him already, but if he is available in your leagues make sure to add him and ride the streak.
In a very similar situation to Vilardi, we have a hot goal scorer who is being elevated to one of the top lines on their respective teams in Shane Pinto. Following the injury to Josh Norris it was, perhaps unexpectedly, Derick Brassard who was moved up to play alongside Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux on the second line. Pinto was passed for the opportunity even though he had been playing well and scoring goals, perhaps it was a move to lengthen the lines. Regardless, Pinto has been on a hot streak with seven points in his last seven games, including six goals. All while averaging 14:28 of TOI on the third line with Mathieu Joseph and Tyler Motte. According to reports this morning from TSN 1200, Pinto has seen his deployment substantially improved and is practicing with Debrincat and Giroux.
As seen with Vilardi, Pinto has a high shooting percentage that is not sustainable but the how he got to this top deployment is irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Playing alongside two top talents should help to mitigate the indicated regression coming in the advanced stats. Pinto is also only owned in 27% of Yahoo leagues so keep an eye on this situation to see how he performs and consider picking him up if your roster has the space.
Jaden Schwartz has been hot lately with seven points in his past five games, including two back-to-back two-point efforts on a Seattle squad that is surprisingly efficient at scoring early on this season. Seattle currently is converting on 27% of their power-plays, good for sixth in the league believe it or not. They are also sixth in goals for, no doubt in part to the high rate of power-play scoring. They may also be seventh in goals allowed but, for fantasy purposes, Schwartz is on a high scoring team.
He currently has the benefit of primarily lining up alongside rookie sensation and Calder favourite Matthew Beniers as well as Jordan Eberle. Schwartz is also being used on the top power-play unit, which as noted has been clicking lately. He currently has a higher-than-normal shooting percentage but a low PDO. PDO is a number used to measure luck for a player while on the ice. It adds 5on5 S% to 5on5 SV% and is multiplied to get a whole number that compares to the mean which is 1000. A high PDO means that a player is luckier while on the ice and a low PDO means that he is unlucky. Over a full season a player's PDO will balance towards the mean, indicating that Schwartz with his low PDO of 875 can expect that number and subsequently his even strength production, to regress positively towards the mean and ideally balance out the negative regression in his shooting percentage. At only 25% rostered in Yahoo leagues, take a look at Schwartz.
A quick note that Jonathan Huberdeau has been moved the line with Andrew Mangiapane and Nazim Kadri, replacing Dillon Dube. Kadri and Mangiapane have been meshing well together so far, playing with positive CF numbers and more goals for than against. Mangiapane for his part is producing in line with his career numbers and is seeing similar time on ice and secondary power-play usage as the last two seasons. His advanced stats indicate that he actually has been a bit cold in some areas, particularly in secondary assists where he currently has zero on the season. That number is due for a significant positive regression, especially now that he is being joined with a top-tier talent.
The opportunity here though cannot be overstated enough – last season he spent the majority of his time with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. The combination of lining up with Kadri and Huberdeau and a positive regression in his secondary assist rate should provide a boost in his production over the short term. At only 58% rostered in Yahoo leagues, scoop him up if you can.
Thanks for reading.