Geek of the Week: Early November Waiver-Wire Considerations

Scott Royce

2022-11-06

Hey everyone, happy to be back for another week of fantasy hockey discussion! Besides the Colorado/Columbus two-game set in Finland this week, it's pretty much been business as usual this week in the NHL. Tage Thompson owners had to have been happy Monday night when he erupted for three goals and three assists. He had been off to a slow start, so hopefully he can start getting back to where he was last season now. Meanwhile, in the Western Conference the Golden Knights have continued their dominance, having now collected seven straight wins. It's business as usual here as well, as we are going to check out a few players with low ownership that you might be able to scoop up in the upcoming days.

Jonathan Toews

In his 15th NHL season, Toews has been finding some early success having now scored seven goals and adding two assists to boot. Toews has had an illustrious career to this point, but the 34-year-old definitely saw a step back in production last season when he posted just 38 points over 71 games. Granted, this drop-off in stats also coincided with Chicago also seeing some major regression as a franchise, but it's not that much of a stretch to assume Toews' best hockey may have been in his rear-view mirror. 

After about a month into the season, Chicago has actually been half-decent. They certainly aren't world beaters by any stretch of the imagination, but they are 5-5-2 through 12 games and could most certainly be doing much worse. It's early, and they still may be knocked down a peg, but for now they look okay, and Toews has been a major contributor. Although he finds himself on the second line and separated from longtime teammate Patrick Kane, he still is anchoring the top power-play unit. 

His seven goals are great, but it might be wise to tamper expectations a bit. He currently has a shooting percentage of 30%, which obviously is not sustainable. However, if he carries this momentum forward and stays confident, maybe he can find the back of the net at a decent rate. Aside from his offense, he won't bring much hitting or blocking to the table, and he also slightly below average in terms of shot rate. He has averaged 1.9 shots per game, which mirrors his shot rate from last season. Prior to that though, he shot more frequently, so there's always a chance his numbers could rise once more. 

If you are in a faceoffs league, Toews does bring a lot of extra value as he is a stud on draws. He is winning just under 60 percent of his faceoffs, which is a superb number. Chicago only has two games next week, so maybe track Toews for one more week and if he has a couple good games, take a flier on him. He is just 21% rostered on Yahoo, while on Fantrax he is sitting at 39%.

Jamie Benn

From one wily veteran to another, Benn is coming off a monster performance Saturday afternoon which saw him collect his seventh career hat trick, and his first in nearly three years. You can draw a lot of comparisons between Benn and Toews. Benn is just a year younger than Toews and was drafted the year prior to him. They are seeing pretty similar deployment as well. While Benn has seen his role in the top-six diminished to a third-line role, he still is seeing reps on the top power play unit.

In fact, seven of his 11 points this season have come on the man advantage, which gives you an idea of just how potent the Dallas Stars power play can be. For quite some time now, Benn's offensive numbers have really fallen off, making him less of an appealing fantasy commodity. He hasn't broken the 60-point plateau since the 2017-18 campaign. While the Stars' captain may not hold as much offensive appeal on a consistent basis, he still does have a sneaky amount of upside elsewhere.

First off, he shoots a very solid rate. This season he's been peppering about 2.6 shots on net per game. On top of that, he loves to play the body. He's had multiple seasons with well over 100 hits, and though he's only sitting at 16 so far this season through 12 games, he still provides a steady amount of body checks for a forward. He can even pitch in on faceoffs too, though this season he has been seeing noticeably less faceoff opportunities. 

Benn is sparsely owned in most leagues. On Yahoo he is only taken in 27% of leagues, while Fantrax show him owned in 40%. It's also worth noting while Yahoo gives him dual-eligibility at center and left wing, Fantrax only recognizes him as a winger, so you will lose some flexibility on Fantrax. I think Benn brings a lot to the table that goes under the radar, and if he can find a return to form offensively, if only partially, he could be a great waiver wire pickup. That being said, don't go dropping anyone crazy to grab him. If you have the room though, give him a shot.

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Nicholas Paul

For my last suggestion this week, I will go with someone a bit younger than the previous two choices. Paul came over to Tampa Bay at the trade deadline after spending nearly seven full seasons in the Ottawa Senators organization. He really stood out during their playoff run last year and personally, I've always thought that Ottawa dealing him away was one of the few missteps by Sens' GM Pierre Dorion. Paul is a solid and gritty two-way forward who up until now hasn't shown much offensive pedigree, but I think there's some potential for him to breakout.

Paul somewhat surprisingly, has landed in a top-six spot, centering a line with Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn. This alone is a major opportunity for him to see an uptick in his offensive stats. The major downside to owning Paul right now is that he currently isn't on either of Tampa's power play units, so he won't rack up any power play points for you. That's a tough pill to swallow, but he has shown during even strength thus far that he can provide some value. He has managed four goals and four assists in 12 games up to this point, including six points in his last five contests.

Paul is shooting the puck more than he ever has in previous seasons, averaging 2.2 shots per game. This is another encouraging sign and hopefully he keeps firing them on goal. Much like Benn, Paul isn't afraid to play a physical game as well. He's already racked up 23 hits which is just under two hits per game. Also as I previously mentioned, he is getting played at center which means he will also get you faceoff wins. He currently sits at a 52.3% win-rate on draws, which is another career best for him.

Paul flies pretty safely under the radar in almost all leagues. On Yahoo he is just 9% rostered, and over on Fantrax he sits at 24%. The lack of power-play deployment can be a deal breaker for many, but much like Benn, Paul carries a lot of extra value in the peripheral categories that could help you out. 

That's a wrap on another fantasy hockey week! Hopefully these suggestions can be of use for some of you out there who have some extra roster space. Last week I provided my thoughts on the Edmonton goalie tandem and suggested maybe Stuart Skinner could sneak his way into a bigger role with the club. In my mind, it's definitely a situation worth tracking. Jack Campbell let in another six goals yesterday. The plot thickens! Anyways, everyone have a great week and I will be back next Sunday for more fantasy hockey speculation!

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