Ramblings: Ullmark and Zero G, Seider and One Goal, Barzal and No Goals (Nov 18)

Ian Gooding

2022-11-18

It was a bad night for the two starting goalies in the Dallas/Florida game. Scott Wedgewood was stretchered off the ice during the second period, although the injury simply turned out to be a massive back spasm. It's good that the injury is not as serious as it first appeared, but I'm not sure what his availability will be like in the near term. As expected, Jake Oettinger entered the game in relief in the eventual Stars victory credited to Wedgewood.

Starting two consecutive games since sitting for three before, Sergei Bobrovsky was pulled after allowing four goals on 11 shots in the first period. Spencer Knight, who entered in relief, currently has the far superior numbers, so he's at least forcing a timeshare with $10 million man Bobrovsky. I'd have to think that Bob's numbers will improve somewhat as the season goes on, but he may not be quite what you hoped for in terms of both volume and ratios.

You might want to consider sitting your goalie (like Bobrovsky) when facing the Dallas Stars offense. The Stars are currently near the top of the league in offense (second in the NHL as I write this with 66 goals). Several Stars populate the hot list on Frozen Tools, including Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen, and Ty Dellandrea. You're already familiar with most of these names, so I'll handpick Dellandrea to start. With a goal and an assist on Thursday, Dellandrea has four points over his last four games. He's also scored a respectable nine points in 17 games while on a line with Benn and Wyatt Johnston. One downside is no power-play time on what is shaping up to be a loaded forward group.

I'll discuss Benn as well while my mind is on the Stars. You might have been fading him as a worthwhile fantasy option, but he's had a bit of a resurgence. With two points of his own on Thursday, Benn has a four-game point streak and 14 points over his last eight games. As his scoring has declined over the last few seasons, he never really lost his bangers ability (88 PIM and 143 HITS in 2021-22). Those numbers are slightly down this season (11 PIM / 22 HITS), but that's often what happens when the focus shifts more to scoring. That being said, Benn is a potential sell high with some higher-than-expected advanced stats (18.4 SH%, 9.5 5-on-5 SH%, 4.2 PTS/60).

One more quick note on the Stars: Both Robertson and Hintz are currently on 10-game point streaks. Robertson has nine goals and 19 points over those 10 games, while Hintz has 15 points over that span.

In a losing cause for the Panthers, Sam Reinhart scored a power-play goal, which was his second in as many games. He now has four goals in his last five games. Were you ready to give up on him after had hadn't scored a goal in his first 12 games? That's why I don't get too caught up in what happens during the first month of the season.

Juuso Parssinen is making a great impression on one of Nashville's scoring lines. The recent callup (more on him in the latest Journey) scored two goals and added an assist on Thursday, giving him three goals and an assist in his first three NHL games. He's been on an even-strength line with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund, and has also received some power-play minutes. A former seventh-round pick, Parssinen is rostered in just 11 percent of Fantrax leagues. I'm not sure that he's worth a pickup in redraft leagues yet, but keeper leaguers should at least give him some thought.  

Mathew Barzal might have the league's most unique statline. He still hasn't scored a goal this season, yet he's a point-per-game player based on assists alone. To put it another way, no player has as many points as Barzal (19) without any goals. Something else that's weird is that his shot rate is up from last season (from 2.2 SOG/GP to 2.6 SOG/GP). Barzal has never been known as a goal scorer, as he has reached 20 goals only once in his career (his career-best rookie season). He has to score a goal at some point, but going back to last season he has just four goals in his last 54 games. If you're in a categories league and have Barzal, just make sure you're receiving goals elsewhere.

Noted goal scorer Kyle Connor entered Thursday's game with just two goals in his first 14 games. If you've been patient with him, you were rewarded with a hat trick, which more than doubles his goal output for the season. Connor also scored his first power-play goal of the season. Unfortunately, the buy-low window may have closed with those three goals. Timing is everything.

Connor Hellebuyck made 29 saves in a 3-2 win over Anaheim on Thursday. That gives Hellebuyck wins in four of his last five games, as well as eight consecutive quality starts. Only one goalie has more quality starts this season, which is a goalie that I'm about to mention…

If you played the Zero G strategy in terms of choosing goalies (choosing after pick 100 or not investing high draft capital), your best option so far has been Linus Ullmark. In fact, he might be the best fantasy goalie right now, period. Ullmark picked up his fourth consecutive win and sixth consecutive quality start with a 22-save 4-1 win over Philadelphia. Ullmark leads the league with 11 quality starts, and he is the only regular starter with a sub-2.00 GAA (minimum 5 GP).

Full disclosure: I'm lucky enough to have Ullmark on two of my teams. My strategy has been to bench my goalies once I reach the head-to-head weekly minimum in goalie starts if I receive superior starts from Ullmark (and perhaps others – like Pavel Francouz on Thursday). Call it the minimalist goalie approach or an offshoot of Zero G, but it allows me to protect my ratios. I also don't need to carry a lot of goalies, so I can use roster spots on skaters to maximize counting stats. When Ullmark's numbers start to slide a bit (which I assume will eventually happen), I'll then turn my attention to what's available in the goaltending market. Lesson here: Focus less on chasing wins, and give your high-performing goalie a large percentage of your goalie starts each week.

Back to Francouz. He made 46 saves in a 3-2 win over Carolina. He's started two of the last three games for the Avalanche. In addition, he's had quality starts in each of his last four games dating back to nearly a month ago, so he could be starting more often than he has been. He and Alexandar Georgiev have similar save percentages while Georgiev has quality starts in each of his last seven games. Maybe it's just a matter of Georgiev being named the starter and playing well enough to keep the job.

In New Jersey's breakout, much of the credit has gone to Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes, yet the team captain is having quite a season so far. Nico Hischier scored a goal on Thursday, giving him nine goals on the season while maintaining his point-per-game pace (18 PTS in 16 GP). Hischier isn't lining up with either of the aforementioned names at even strength at the moment, but current linemate Tomas Tatar was just on a seven-game point streak.

Speaking of lines, you can check out the new Line Change Tracker on Frozen Tools. You can find out which players are being bumped up or bumped down their lineup.

Last week Jake Bean was a hot pickup because of the injury to Zach Werenski. This week he joins Werenski on the sidelines with an upper-body injury from Tuesday's game. Because of all the injuries on Columbus's blueline, Marcus Bjork (not Anders Bjork or Bjork the singer) has advanced from AHL callup last week to power-play time this week. The more established Vladislav Gavrikov received slightly more power-play time on Thursday, so he might be the next man up if you're looking for a potential power-play QB. To be perfectly honest, there isn't much left on the Blue Jackets defense.

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Those St. Louis uniforms are pretty awful, but this Ryan O'Reilly goal isn't. After an ice-cold start to the season, ROR has six points over his last four games. He also has four goals over his last six games. You should be okay to move him off your bench if you haven’t already.

Congratulations to Phil Kessel on becoming the first player to play 1000 consecutive games! Maybe the best thing about having him on your roster during that time period is that you never had to place him on IR. Here are some other contributions that he has made during that span.

With a power-play goal and two assists on Thursday, Alex Pietrangelo is nearly at a point per game (17 PTS in 18 GP). He's also taken at least four shots in each of his last three games.

Erik Karlsson for comeback player of the year? Another day, another multipoint effort. He's got 21 points over his last 10 games, just like we all expected before the season. If you're going to try to sell high, then shoot for the moon.

The Moritz Seider goal watch is over, as he hit the twine for the first time this season late Thursday. Last season's Calder Trophy winner was held without a goal in his first 16 games. He's had a rough go with it recently without a point in his previous four games, while his plus/minus has also suffered (-7 in last 4 GP). He showed tremendously in his rookie season, so it might be a matter of a sophomore slump. He might be worth a buy-low attempt, particularly in a keeper league.

Jonathan Huberdeau recorded an assist on Thursday, giving him points in three consecutive games. That shouldn't be a big deal for Hubie, but he had struggled somewhat with his new team. He too is worth a buy-low attempt, but that window should be closing soon.

For more buy lows, check out this week's Top 10 article.

Lots of games on Thursday, but just one on Friday (Kings/Canucks). If I missed anything important above, I'll try to pick it up tomorrow. In the meantime, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

But if Twitter falls apart, I'm not sure where I'll be in terms of social media after that. Facebook? Instagram? This new Mastodon thing? I like Twitter because I can easily post links to my articles as well as other quick thoughts, and it gives you the chance to reach out to me if you have a question or just want to talk fantasy hockey.

I've met lots of interesting folks through the years on Twitter dating all the way back to my days with fantasyhockey.com and the Weekly Slapshot Podcast, so it would be a shame if it all blew up like a mushroom cloud. Unfortunately, I don't have $44 billion in a bank account somewhere, so my Twitter account is at the mercy to the whims of those that do. I have a feeling Twitter will somehow survive through all of this, although the future seems uncertain given the latest news. Hopefully it's not the end.

One Comment

  1. dgpaulik 2022-11-18 at 06:26

    I am with you on the Zero Goalie strategy. I am rolling with the two Las Vegas goalies as my strategy this year. So far it has worked great. Not chasing wins, chasing ratios behind a solid defensive scheme with the Knights and their coach. It is beginning to feel like goalies are equivalent to running backs and starting pitchers in fantasy football and baseball.

    Twitter will survive. Lots of noise right now because of all the politics, but we just need to ignore it.

    Another great column. Thanks.

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