The Journey: Preaching Patience (Parssinen, Kaliyev, Rathbone)

Ben Gehrels

2022-11-12

Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we will look at several prospects who have excellent track records dating back to junior but seem unlikely to become meaningful fantasy contributors for the next couple years. Although some prospects make the transition to the NHL look easy, the reality is that most players will need at least a few seasons to really hit their stride and show what they are capable of.

Juuso Parssinen, 21, was just called up for the Predators. I continue to be baffled that Philip Tomasino remains with Milwaukee (AHL) while guys like Parssinen get a call up but the Nashville brass clearly feels it's best for his development right now. Milwaukee is one of the best teams in the AHL again this year, so it is probably not hurting him to be playing big minutes in all situations alongside talented players like Luke Evangelista.

Tomasino will be back in a Predators uniform before long, so just hold him if you have him in keeper or dynasty formats. On the flip side, now is an excellent time to buy low on a great two-way player who is a lock to play in an NHL team's top six—even if it doesn't end up being with Nashville, who are loaded with ageing forwards on expensive long-term contracts.

There are quite a few players at or near a point-per-game pace on the Admirals right now, and that group includes Parssinen, who has nine points in 10 games. After a couple solid years in Finland's top men's league (74 points in 96 games), Parssinen joined the Admirals for the AHL playoffs last year in a depth role, so he is still fairly new to the North American game.

He has a hard, accurate shot that he loves to unload as a one-timer from the half wall with the man advantage. But historically he has been more of a distributor than a sniper. In the Liiga, for instance, he scored 17 goals compared to 57 assists. It will be interesting to see how his playmaking mentality meshes with the trigger-happy Filip Forsberg starting on Saturday against the Rangers.

While Parssinen's NHL ceiling is likely in a middle six—his career trajectory is comparable to guys like Alexander Kerfoot and Tyler Motte—he definitely has the skill and intangibles to surpass those projections. This clip is a couple years old now but check out his deft poise with the puck as he dekes out several defenders and then roofs it past the goalie at the 2020 World Juniors.

He recently displayed that same wicked backhand with the Admirals.

If the Kerfoot comparable holds true, Parssinen could put up 50 points over an entire year if everything breaks right. As with all prospects, though, he will likely need a few seasons in the league before we can expect numbers anywhere close to those.

—

Speaking of pacing for 50 points, Arthur Kaliyev (LAK) seems to be taking a noticeable step forward so far in his second NHL campaign. Although he is not yet lighting the league on fire like fellow goal-scoring phenom Cole Caufield (MON), Kaliyev has been seeing a steady dose of PP time—albeit often with the second unit—and has four power play points already.

There are a couple concerning signs in the short term, though: he is not shooting a ton (2.1/game), and his shot is definitely his primary weapon. Also, he has largely been buried down on the fourth line with depth players like Blake Lizotte and Brendan Lemieux. I imagine Kaliyev might have seen more time in the top six alongside Anze Kopitar if it wasn't for Gabe Vilardi stepping up in such dramatic fashion, but as it is the top three lines seem more or less set for the Kings.

There is the top scoring line of Vilardi – Kopitar – Kempe, then Phillip Danault with Viktor Arvidsson and Trevor Moore—a line that saw a lot of time together last year. And then there is Kevin Fiala with Carl Grundstrom and Rasmus Kupari, a unit that has gelled quite well since Fiala was demoted from the top line.

At first glance, it seems like Kaliyev's best chance of moving up the lineup (barring injury) would be to take Kupari's place on the Fiala line. Kings observers seem somewhat split on their assessments of the young Finn, so maybe there is some room here for Kaliyev to edge him out.

Like Tomasino, Kaliyev continues to be a high-end fantasy asset in keeper and dynasty formats. He will need another season and a half to reach his Breakout Threshold but should be a consistent 30+ goal scorer once he reaches it. His shot is already among the best in the league.

In the short term, however, I have my doubts that Kaliyev will be rosterable in redraft leagues given his linemates and limited deployment. It will be tough for him to maintain a 50-point pace playing only 11 minutes a night alongside a low-skill pest like Brendan Lemieux.

—

Jack Rathbone (VAN) currently sits 14th on Dobber's Top 50 Prospect Defensemen list, of comparable value to prospects like David Jiricek (CBJ) and Simon Edvinsson (DET). He is another player who is not likely to help your fantasy team this year or even next. But his potential is high enough that I would definitely suggest targeting him if you are rebuilding in a keeper or dynasty format.

Here is why his short-term value looks so grim: he has been a healthy scratch eight out of 14 games so far, his BT is still more than two seasons away, and he is stuck on the Canucks' third pairing with Ethan Bear receiving minimal PP time. Ahead of him on the PP priority list are Quinn Hughes, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and even Tyler Myers—all of whom are signed until at least 2024-25.

That year, Rathbone will be a restricted free agent and Myers will be an unrestricted free agent. It's doubtful Vancouver will want to continue to employ Myers past that date given his $6 million price tag, especially given that they're stuck with Ekman-Larsson at 7.3 per until 2027. So perhaps Rathbone heads into the 2024-25 season in a top four role with about 180 NHL games under his belt. That is the year I would expect to see him make significant strides offensively—unless something changes before then due to injury or trades.

With the Canucks currently mired in a less-than-inspiring start to the year, perhaps management decides to make some changes. Were Rathbone to be traded, his value in fantasy would almost assuredly increase.

Despite this fairly bleak short-term outlook, however, there are excellent reasons to stash Rathbone if you can afford the farm slot. Built very similarly to his former college partner, Adam Fox (NYR), Rathbone is an excellent skater with a sneaky shot who excels in transition with the puck on his stick. We've seen Fox and Cale Makar (COL) attack the net and roof it in tight just like this:

On the defensive end, he makes up for his size disadvantage by maintaining good gap control and using an active stick to disrupt rushes.

After a very productive college career (53 points in 61 games), Rathbone graduated to the AHL and absolutely ripped it up to the tune of 49 points in 47 AHL games. It is not very common to see first-year blue line pros exceed a ppg, so he is clearly an exceptional offensive talent.

The benefit of his current situation in Vancouver is that his owner in your league is likely frustrated with Rathbone and open to trading him cheaply. If they haven't already seen it, send them this clip along with your trade offer:

Remember, stay patient! Many Canucks fans were calling for his head after that giveaway but this is a young player with only 23 NHL games under his belt. The mistakes will happen, especially as he is given more leeway to attempt creative plays on offence. It does not mean he will not become a solid player in time.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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